Member Info for economist2023

Link to press conference: https://www.cpac.ca/headline-politics/episode/g7-energy-and-environment-ministers-meeting-closing-news-conference?id=1c144aff-c56b-48df-9fea-a96f1cd3f1c0

Very interesting research report from short selling firm Fuzzy Panda Research: https://fuzzypandaresearch.com/eos-energy-eose-deadly-gas-doe-loan-default/

Says that Eos's product has major safety and performance issues, its backlog is massively overstated, its financials have been manipulated, and it is essentially on the brink of bankruptcy. Not sure how accurate any of this is but an interesting development to follow.

Bella yes I do thanks, hence why my post clearly says it is more likely Ava7100 has been sidelined. I am just pointing out that it is odd that the interim results presentation from one month ago in late September stated the goal to file an IND for the next drug in late 2026. Unless I'm missing something, clearly, that isn't remotely possible for AVA6207, since candidate selection for that drug will be in late 2026 and IND-enabling studies take at least 9 months.

One thing I'm confused about is what is the plan for AVA7100 - is this still being progressed alongside the other programs, or has it been sidelined in order to focus on AVA6207.

Given Avacta's limited resources, it seems more likely it has been sidelined. However, there are a couple of points on the Avacta website / latest presentations that might suggest otherwise:

1. On the Avacta website pipeline page it says that AVA7100 candidate selection is anticipated in 2H 2025, with potential IND in 2H 2026. The progress bar for this drug indicates that it is further along in preclinical development than AVA6107.

2. In the interim results presentation, which was just a month ago, on slide 7, it says that an upcoming data catalyst is to "identify third pipeline program and advance to candidate selection with a goal of IND late 2026". CC said today that candidate selection for AVA6207 will be in late 2026. So, surely it won't be until late 2027 until the IND is filed for that drug. Therefore, the only drug I'm aware of that Avacta could file an IND for in late 2026 is AVA7100 (as indicated by the pipeline page on the Avacta website).

Curious to know people's thoughts on AVA7100. Given Avacta's cash is only to cover AVA6103 and AVA6207, it seems the only way Avacta could still be progressing AVA7100 is through a partnership / licensing deal. Interesting also that CC didn't get any questions on this today or in the interim results presentation - I wonder whether such questions may have been deliberately avoided due to confidentiality around a deal. I'm probably just dreaming though.

Sorry Toukankahmoon but that is not at all correct. Dual listing on the Nasdaq would not require dilution - it just enables investors to purchase the shares on a US-based stock exchange. In my opinion, a Nasdaq listing, at the right time, could be very beneficial for the Avacta share price given the disconnect between UK and US exchange valuations.

Love the below quote from Treger:

CoTec's financing philosophy prioritises value accretion over empire building. Treger stated bluntly, "We're not interested in earning salaries or having an empire. What we're interested is becoming incredibly rich."

Certainly knows what investors want to hear - and I fully believe him.

I thought the presentation was excellent today. The company has an ambitious vision and their strategy to get there is on point - focus in the short-term on opportunities where VFBs can beat Lithium on non-price factors, while driving down costs such that in the future VFBs can compete directly with Lithium. The management team came across very well as they always do.

A few thoughts /notes I had on some of the points mentioned in the presentation:

- BESS as a service was listed as a potential future stream. When discussing this, the CEO clearly signposted an ambition for ABB to include Invinity's products in their service, once the ABB / Gamesa Electric transaction is complete (should be before year end). VFBs should have a competitive advantage here due to their high residual value.

- Jonathan Marren mentioned Green Hydrogen projects as an example type of opportunity that Invinity is targeting in the short term because Lithium is inappropriate due to fire risk. I wonder if this is a direct reference to the Lancaster Clean Energy Project in the US for which a 300 MW Vanadium Flow Battery is planned (but yet to be confirmed if it is Invinity's).

- There were a few mentions of the fact that EOS Energy is selling its batteries at negative gross margin, which Invinity doesn't have the luxury of doing. Jonathan Marren also confirmed that Frontier is splitting all of its cap and floor projects 50:50 between EOS and Invinity. I see this as a positive to Invinity since it should increase the cost competitiveness of these bids, assuming EOS will be pricing below Invinity.

- Good to hear Invinity have China manufacturing as a contingency plan for cap and floor in case Ofgem decides not to prioritise UK-made products (which is unfortunately the kind of short sighted thinking the government / civils service is prone to do).

- It seems, unsurprisingly, the timeline for US projects to come to fruition has been set back due to the Trump administration's policies. One issue I am aware of is that the Big Beautiful Bill introduced FEOC restrictions that mean tax credits can't be claimed on energy investments in Chinese-made products. Establishing manufacturing in India seems like a good way to get around this while maintaining cost competitiveness.

- Matt Harper mentioned that in the long term they are working on increasing energy density of the batteries in order to bring down costs further. Good to hear they are working on this alongside the other cost reduction measures.

The only other article covering the story I can find is here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/trump-administration-explores-taking-stakes-in-more-critical-minerals-companies-report/ar-AA1NiBrS?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

Not much detail provided but the two key quotes are very promising:

- "The Trump administration is in talks to take equity stakes in multiple critical minerals companies"

- "The negotiations largely involve Department of Energy grants and loans for companies that mine and process the metals and components used in batteries"

It looks like the spike in rare earth stock prices today was caused by this article in the Information: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/exclusive-electric-trump-administration-seeking-stakes-critical-minerals-companies

Does anyone have a subscription? Would love to read this article but subscription cost is pricey at $400

Interesting to see Gamesa marketing their La Plana project today on LinkedIn, which uses Invinity's ENDURIUM vanadium redox flow battery with Gamesa's Proteus PCS-E converters:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gamesa-electric_gamesa-electric-hybrid-plant-activity-7376595241828532224-lxzs?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAzhrf0B9dsAiDy1Rqtez-z7KjWlS-Dd8nY

I count two likes from employees of ABB (both in the Renewable Power business line). The ABB / Gamesa transaction should be completing in the coming months, after which it will be very interesting to find out how Invinity batteries fit into ABB's plans.

Sharing this upcoming data center project, Killellan AI Growth Zone, in which Invinity is named as the BESS partner in the official documentation: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6762cd4c40ea67044a0810b3/t/6849f32648c8072a4b362693/1749676844583/Killellan+AI+Growth+Zone+Application+30052025_FinalApproved.pdf.

See also the FAQ page which outlines that the bulk of the batteries will be provided by Invinity while Lithium will also be used for certain use cases: https://argylldev.com/faqs.

Note this project will be off-grid - it is not linked to the Ofgem Cap and Floor scheme. It therefore demonstrates further demand for Invinity's batteries in the UK outside of Cap and Floor. The future looks bright!

EOS Energy's market cap just hit $2.1 bn on no news. In their most recent Q2 results, they singled out their partnership with Frontier Power for the cap and floor scheme as the key driver of their increasing pipeline - "$18.8 billion commercial pipeline increased $3.2 billion vs. prior quarter led by over 10 GWh submitted to the UK Cap & Floor scheme, 15% sequential growth in 8-hour plus duration projects".

Given that Invinity has a similar cap and floor scheme partnership with Frontier, as well as eight other developers, the disconnect between the EOS and Invinity valuations is looking increasingly absurd, IMO.

Not sure if this has been spotted yet by any posters here but I noticed today that there is another Hagshaw project (other than the LDES project), Hagshaw III, that 3R is developing, which also looks like it will use Invinity's batteries. The project webpage is here: https://3renergy.co.uk/projects/hagshaw-hill-iii/

On the web page it says "At Hagshaw Hill III, we are proposing to use a network of flow batteries, a type of LDES technology known for its safety, durability, and efficiency. Unlike lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries use a water based, non-flammable electrolyte, significantly reducing fire risk. The LDES at Hagshaw Hill III would be capable of discharging around 50 MW of electricity over a period of up to 12 hours, which is enough electricity to power approximately 130,000 homes for a continuous period of up to 12 hours."

There is a post today from John Hasar commenting on the New York energy storage RfP that was published earlier this week (NYSERDA). He's basically saying it is been crafted for LDES in line with the feedback Invinity provided on the draft, and also that it takes inspiration from the Ofgem Cap and Floor scheme. Essentially, it looks like another massive opportunity for Invinity. Even the timelines are similar - eligibility determined in September, awards made in Q1 2026.

Post is here, enjoy: https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/content/?keywords=invinity&origin=FACETED_SEARCH&searchId=07155ad1-d5c8-44d5-8e26-90b263aa24aa&sid=oKZ&sortBy=%22date_posted%22

I also bought again today for the first time in a while - great opportunity to top up ahead of incoming positive news flow to arrive in Q3.

I believe it is a poster, since it is only listed in the "Poster and e-Posters" section.

Https://cslide.ctimeetingtech.com/esmo2025/attendee/confcal_2/presentation/list?q=ava6000&r=pt%7E46

This was published today: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6880ab6a2b6fd60b7c160eef/clean-flexibility-roadmap.pdf

It includes a very encouraging section on financings in the cap and floor discussion on page 49:

"Great British Energy (GBE) and the NWF will provide a strong end-to-end development and finance offer, playing distinct and complementary roles of developer and policy bank. GBE can help bring forward LDES and encourage investment. Building on the investments it has already made in the sector, the NWF will continue engaging with LDES projects at Technology Readiness Level 7 and above, including those preparing to apply for the cap and floor,

exploring financing solutions where there are barriers to private investment. The NWF can invest across the capital structure (offering debt, equity and guarantees), tailoring to the specific financing needs of the project, and targets investments of £25m and above. "

To me it seems inevitable that should Invinity win cap and floor projects, they will be able to obtain further financing from NWF to support rapid scale up of capacity.

At Invinity Energy Systems we firmly believe that the UK’s LDES Cap and Floor regime will deliver the greatest consumer benefit the energy sector has seen for many years.

Encouragingly, as Ofgem continues the process of assessing applications for eligibility under Cap & Floor and is consulting on the broader framework under how such bids will be judged, it was highly reassuring to see Ofgem CEO Jonathan Brearley say the following in front of the UK Parliament’s Business and Trade Select Committee on 15 July:

“Secondly, and this is working with Government which is not only making sure we create jobs through the building that’s happening, but we get factories and manufacturing located here so we begin to export those services abroad. And we are working with the National Wealth Fund and Department of Business to make sure that happens.”

I am delighted that our ENDURIUM VFBs were selected by 9 developers across multiple projects for this scheme. This gives us increased confidence that our Made in Britain - official batteries will be seen in a positive light.

If these projects are selected by Ofgem, we will create 100s of jobs in the Scottish Central Belt - exactly what Jonathan Brearley is envisaging.

Invinity's IP should be safe as long as they keep the stack production and battery control manufacturing in Bathgate.

From today's Longspur research note: "As with the agreement with Baojia we expect Invinity to keep control of key IP through control of stack production and the battery management system"