Member Info for Eck71

As ever with Scotgold, investor comms remain the weak point. Two consecutive days, two RNSs with embarrassing typos in them (Louise Lommi in the body copy of today's). Both moderately good news, undermined by slapdash comms. Twas ever thus.

I always thought 2022 would be a grind but it's inching in the right direction, I think. I can't see real interest rates going positive any time soon so POG ought to be well set up in the short to medium term. We shall see.

Good luck stalwarts and newcomers alike.

Eck, very much on the sidelines but checking in now and then, just out of interest...

Ah, would that we all had the wisdom of Solomon RH!

yayay, 'never invest what you can't afford to lose' is particularly relevant for speculative investments in junior AIM explorers/developers. It's not a maxim I've adhered to and for that reason I have not always been in control of the timing of my sells, more's the pity. Of course I *was* in control in October last year, and like you failed to sell. So can't have any excuses!

No penny has dropped Baz. I need the cash. I’ve got out with (most of) my shirt having averaged down in the expectation this thing would get into production. You didn’t. It has.

The wild claims of multi-baggers and decimal points shifting were wrong as they almost always are. So were the predictions of doom and disaster. Again, that was my point. So long, and better luck next time.

Not with planning and development finance in place you didn't, which was my point.

yayay, it's no exaggeration to say that the antics of Miss Wemyss, Sir Jasper, Mr and Mrs Keeper, Champion et al have been one of the great pleasures of being involved here, capable of raising a chuckle amid the grimmest of corporate 'jam tomorrow' updates. Here's hoping that harmonium and halter are imminent - they and you deserve it!

BP, good for you! I'll be here in 2028 with the SP at 87p to discuss the latest fundraising to get Inverchorachan into production, planning permission having being granted in 2025. I might even be back in at that point - keep the faith, come on Scotgold!

I bought in at £5.20. Today sees the last of my SGZ shares sold, below my average of 82p. I've been reducing my (not particularly large) holding as opportunities have arisen since the October 2019/Jan 2020 peaks. Over the piece I've more or less got out around my average. So a nominal breakeven but not inconsequential real terms loss over the 10 years, though an improvement on the 95% wipeout I was looking at in 2013. Like a fool I missed the October 2020 spike, holding on for maximum value on 'gold pour' day but then being banjaxed by the placing and, idiotically, holding on again thinking the news would turn around in the months after that. Hey ho.

So, what have I learned over 10 years?

1) Don't believe anything anyone says on these boards, good or bad. I will make an exception for wise retired geologists.
2) Cononish is a great prospect and I think it has a bright long term future. Holding on to that during the difficult times helped.
3) You really have to be prepared to trade these AIM shares. Just holding and holding isn't a great strategy.
4) 95% of the time with a share like this, just sell the news. The other 5% of the time have a quick think, and then sell the news.
5) If you really want to buy and hold a junior miner, do it a year or so pre-production with financing and permissions in place, in the slow news\development delays slide following the financing/permissions excitement.

That's about it really. For what it's worth I think now is not a bad time to be getting in, but I've had enough and there are school fees to pay and a house to be renovated. I'm pretty confident 2022 will bring good operational news but less sure how that will play out with the SP. There remains a question mark about how much financial damage was done in the first half of 2021 and that question still needs to be answered. It's not at all clear to me that Cononish will be throwing off enough cash in 2022 to pay down the debt and finance significant new exploration. I can't see future development - and there are seriously exciting prospects awaiting attention - being financed internally in the short to medium term. I think it will take a JV or strategic investment to get that going (not necessarily a bad thing).

To me, 2022 looks like being mostly a productive slog with more excitement in 2023-4. I'm slightly worried about where the gold price goes from here - is this autumn 2008 or spring 2013? I'm still more inclined to think this is a bull market for gold, but there may be some volatility ahead.

It's been an education and if I can find a bit of liquidity to play with over the next year or so I may well be back in both here and in other junior miners to see if I can put into practice what I've learned, so I might 'see' some of you elsewhere in due course.

For now, thanks for the company (particularly for the canal folk tales), take care, be kind and I will continue to follow Scotgold's fortunes from the sidelines.

Eck7

Usually in Nov, last year was the exception but as TB says no word yet on what is the 'new normal'. Obviously not Nov though.

Yes marked down BP, but bouncing back after a few decent buys coming straight back in. Looks like decent support for 80p now. Hey ho, nothing goes up in a straight line etc.

Be fair BP, none of those milestones you mention has been met yet, so all still to play for! Full production ie Phase 2 is still a little way off, though £4 might be a bit ambitious...

Come on Scotgold!

Coincidentally I was squeezing out a last minute concentrate load at 7am.

Bellers, here's what was said in the 1 September update:

Following the completion of the debottlenecking process, expected in September, gravity circuit optimisation will occur, supporting gold doré production which commands a premium price.

Which at the time I took to mean September would be spent fiddling around with the gravity circuit, with the hope of hearing something about doré in the November update.

Hopefully we'll get a further, more detailed production update on 1 Oct along the lines of the previous monthly ones.

Happyhaddock, looks like neutral tending to positive is the immediate reaction, MMs dropped it at the open but popped straight back up. Definitely better than leaving the liability hanging for another month and/or rolling it over. It's another issue out of the way and another vote of confidence by the board and major shareholders.

The mine is operating cash positive and the market could now do with seeing some detailed financials and robust projections for the next 12 months or so. Annual results tend to appear in November but will only take us to June 30th. There's been a lot of operational progress since then so those in themselves will be of limited use.

This short term loan issue may be out of the way but some specifics on the much larger £7.5m NLR/Bridge Barn debt funding would be welcome. Each tranche due for repayment 36 months after drawdown. £3.5m of that was drawn down after June 2020, so getting on for two years before that needs to be repaid. The rest is due a bit earlier having been drawn down by December 2019. With cash now flowing (and freed up with today's news) there's no existential issue here, but increased certainty on repayment plans would be supportive of the SP at this stage.

Would it be very cynical to wonder if some good news has been held back prior to the loan conversion so the directors get to bump up their holdings at a relatively favourable price? Surely not...

I've got a big mow planned within the next week Bellers.

Continued gentle upward pressure on the SP, likely to be maintained over the next week in anticipation of the forthcoming update. And a sighting of TB1872 no less, the first in five months - something must be in the wind...

We should get the next update a week on Friday. I have quite high hopes for this one, but this is Scotgold and I'll never learn.

It is odd Kenny. There used to be another guy on here who chucked around all sorts of conspiracy theories after clearly spending far too much time in the more unhinged corners of Facebook and YouTube 'educating himself'. He was convinced Trump was going to win the US election because of 'watermarks', or something. No sign of him recently, so maybe he's had a reset?

Have a good week all.

not good, boosting gold. A close today over $1,830 would be encouraging.

Includes an intriguing comment from the Hamilton & Inches chief exec:

Its debut jewellery collection crafted in 22ct Scottish gold sold out when it launched in 2019, despite costing more than other gold. “We foresee that demand continuing [once we receive more Scottish gold] and not just from a jewellery point of view; we also see it as a corporate opportunity,”

I'm not sure what she means by that. Wholesaling? Brokerage? Interesting.

Today’s update seems positive enough to maintain modest SP progress but not much more than that. We’ll see. 450 oz Au in August is starting to feel a bit more like ‘real’ production. Good to see dore mentioned even if it’s to explain why there hasn’t been any yet. October for photos of dore bars perhaps? Statement on recruitment is more of a wish-list than a progress report.

Crucially the financial rot has been stopped but what is the scale of the H1 2021 deficit and how is it going to be addressed? Suspect that directors’ loan may be rolled over or converted to equity.

Probably that £18k order getting filled BP. Definitely a few out there who reckon it's worth getting in ahead of the news later in the week.