Member Info for dusty42

So average realised at kestrel last quarter $210.. and this quarter shaping up to be potentially *a lot* higher then that(average realised), meaning that every extra $ paid at the gate will pay out to us at the maximum royalty rate.

Not surprised it's a record quarter(given the current overlap kestrel/voiseys), and will also not be surprised(at all) if we see another record in q4. Frankly it's possible q4 could make q3 look quite bad.

I hope they use some of this to pay down as much debt as possible, assuming they are not seeing anything hugely tempting to aquire atm.

Hopefully not having any affect on kounrad..
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kazakhstan-Is-Pulling-The-Plug-On-Crypto-Miners-Amid-Power-Shortages.html

Yes better off the books for sure and when else are you going to do it than in the middle of a huge run up in thermal coal prices. Though I agree the angling towards 'future' materials is probably the right thing, it does grate on me a bit how fully the apf management have jumped on the ESG bandwagon after only 6 years ago sinking $65m into a thermal coal royalty. I'm all for them investing in green stuff, but lets also make sure it's decently profitable over long timeframes. Obviously my comments on Narrabri are with the benefit of hindsight, though I think I am being honest in saying I would have preferred to see them to pick up more exposure to something like copper 6 yrs ago rather than more coal. Appreciate your views on Voiseys Bay.. I hope it does come good and battery tech that can do without/with less cobalt does not progress too quickly. So far demand seems to be growing decently.

The kestrel royalty is what I like about apf, but looking at todays rns the Narrabri royalty aquisition looks like it has turned out to not be a very good deal? Aquired in 2015 for $65m(I was invested here when it was aquired, though have been in and out since), sold after 6yrs and (if we are lucky) total cash back from it will be $70m by 2026? Granted perhaps that is something that has to be accepted given the shift in what people want to invest in.. but it doesn't fill one with confidence ragarding foresight applied to aquisitions made more recently.

One wonders if a deal at a lower price that brought cash back quicker for reinvestment might have been prefereable.

"We are pleased to have completed the acquisition of the Narrabri royalty. The Acquisition will immediately enhance our portfolio of producing royalties and help to diversify our royalty cash flow through the addition of thermal coal exposure"

@ saintsforever - I would say that is very cautious on the Mt/month - (5,700,000Mt/12)*0.9 = 427,000Mt per month. Assuming the guidance of 5.7m Mt production for the year and the claim that 90% of mining would still be in the royalty area this year are both accurate.

With met coal where it is now(US$360/Mt), that's AU$493. Meaning a big chunk(most) of the income per Mt falls inside the higher rate of the royalty. However it's hard to get accurate with the calculations without knowing the haulage and handling costs(it needs to get from the mine to a ship by rail) and the average realised prices for any given period. But even if haulage is assumed at AU$100/Mt, the royalty will still be doing very nicely right now. Fingers crossed there are no disruptions to production!

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-materials-silver-to-lithium-worth-big-money-in-clean-energy/?srnd=premium-europe

I am surprised at the recent move down here.. would certainly say price ranges for commodities for which apf has royalties is encouraging and better than it was back in h1. Yes there's uncertainty with a new ceo next year, but I think the overall picture is good and the longer met coal stays where it is.. well, it could be a good end to the year.

'Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$389.0/t vs US$359.0/t last week'
'Cobalt LME 3m US$53,380/t vs US$51,500/t last week'

US$389 = AU$535 currently.

I would have liked to hear something about the kind of growth opportunities they are looking at. But otherwise it's more of the same from caml, the focus on keeping on top of costs is alway good to hear, even when metal prices are doing well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QN_EDxZh7yo

Ah, no it is in the results, under 'Chief Executive Officer Review'. I was nearly right.

"Given this strong H1 2021 performance, the CAML Board is pleased to declare an interim dividend of eight pence per ordinary share, which is in line with the Company's stated policy. This will be paid on 22 October 2021 to shareholders registered on 1 October 2021."

I think ex on the 30th of september, pay on 22nd of october.

Though on a quick look, I can't find anything directly from the company saying this.

"Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$360.0/t vs US$317.0/t"

Met coal prices continueing to look very good for APF. A few months at these levels and kestrel could make a big dent in the Voisey's debt.

Hi CB, yes all looking positive. I would expect Narrabri to be doing quite 'well'. Some other thermal coal stocks doing very well(eg TGA). Kestrel.. it's hard to calculate(I'm not quite sure how the FOB price translates to the price invoiced at the mine), but due to the royalty's gearing to coal prices.. this could do *very* well if these prices are sustained for a while.

What level are people expecting the dividend to be declared at later this month?

Have copper, lead, zinc ever really been in a better place than they have been of late for caml? Will it just be the standard 6p or do people expect scope for a higher payout?

"The use of cobalt and nickel in EVs was up 110% ytd, with per vehicle nickel use up 9% and cobalt up 6%."

"Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$254.5/t vs US$213.5/t yesterday"

^ From SPangel daily report cherryburn pointed me to.

Thanks cherryburn, I registered with them.. can't do any harm to see some extra free research in general. I also watch coking coal news via google listening for articles that mention it - but this tends to generate quite a lot of noise that I can't always be bothered to wade through!

I found the below which seems to suggest prices are in a nice place for the kestrel royalty at least. Still be interested if anyone knows any where to get more of a day to day idea.
"Argus-assessed Australian premium hard coking coal prices on a fob basis rose by $3.25/t to $219.25/t on 6 August, and up from $107.15/t at the end of April."
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2242322-australias-rba-downgrades-resource-export-outlook?backToResults=true

Does anyone have any suggestions of where it is possible to monitor coking coal prices? I used to look at metal bulletin, but it seems to have become more restricted(without paying) on the information you can get since I last held here..

Thanks sundancer, I hadn't seen the news about flooding. The implied rate of deliveries in July also suggest that q2 may have seen some lag effect and may be an exception. Still every possibility(if coal/cobalt prices stay decent) and volumes are good that h2 could be a record half for APF. Would be very nice indeed to make a big dent in the debt taken on for the acquisition. I do wish they would stop saying 'transformational' though :)

I'm not going to waste time argueing with you BT, I was seeking to respond to someones question based on what's in the plan as LOM is normally defined. If you have an answer you have every right to give it, you are also welcome to disagree. Have a nice day!

Life of mine (LOM) Number of years that an operation is scheduled to mine and treat ore, and is based on the current mine plan.

So I don't think 12 yrs is the answer to the question asked BT, but yes hopefully this years activities will improve what's in the plan.