Member Info for dusty42

Have you a link to information on this BT?

Hi Tincups. A good question. It used to be included in information on the website I am sure, but appears not available now. I think it's currently not great at Yanfolila, I would guess at 4/5 years. But could potentially be improved a fair bit with this year's exploration campaign. The is a resources release dated 30th march 21, you might be able to get an idea from. The 2020 exploration work was successful at adding a fair bit more resource than was mined in the year and the 2021 campaign has twice the budget.

Kourroussa I think is an initial 5 years but with good potential to extend.

Probably there is someone who can provide a more concrete answer.

On a seperate not I assume they are moving to Gonka this half. Perhaps this if where they hope to get some lower cost ounces and potentially higher grade ore.

"Gonka is 5 km south of the processing plant and lies along the highly prospective Sankarani shear zone. A high grade deposit hosting 292kozs in JORC compliant resources. Open pit mining due to commence in late 2021 with further drilling and technical studies to unlock the underground potential."

Sorry for typos, that's meant to say 'expected to earn $23m pa' and 'earning some decent money in h2'.

Does anyone have an opinion on the performance of Voisey's Bay thus far? From the update it seems to have contributed $4m between the end of q1 and late July. Though wasn't it suggested it was expected to earn $23 pa? Maybe there is a lag in deliveries..? But the update also suggests it is 'outperforming expectations'. Though at that rate it's not close to kestrel when firing on all cylinders.

Beyond that it's mostly about kestrel.. and hopefully with c$200 met coal prices that'll be earning some decent money in q2.

It was predictable results were going to be pretty good vs last quarter or same quarter last year. And it's very much looking like this quarter's results might be a fair bit better still(oil & gas in a nice place). To some degree I am surprised the reaction in SP has been as muted as it has, but various factors weighing still I think. Buyback is good use of money at these prices.

I feared a placing(especially at this SP).. because it might have been an 'easier' route to get K going. But given what it seems has been said on and off the record, I think chances are very low now. (but of course are pretty much never zero)

It really doesn’t matter, let’s get back to debate rather than arguments. Tones post this AM was a welcome one for me at least. I’ve been in and out of this share several times over recent years, came back in when the dust settled earlier this year. Perspectives change.. and whatever anyone says on a forum, people make their own judgements. More shareholders are always welcome in my book.

And yes(agree shaun), regardless of what anyone says, placing can happen even if it's explicitly said they won't be happening the day before.

Net cash increased by $7.5m in q2, which includes the final debt repayment & gold inventory. If that happens again in q3 that'd see the company at $20m net cash. Maybe the pog will average higher or lower, maybe the aisc will come out higher or lower(you'd hope lower), maybe ounces produced/sold will come out higher or lower(again you'd hope higher, given recently maintained production targets). As far as the company not wanting to use all of this cash on Kouroussa though, with a mind to current operational costs/risks - it's not like they will have to spend it all on day 1, the development will be progressed over time, during which they will likely have other income. Rather just be able to show they have it on day 1.

With the build costs at K estimated at c$90m-$100m(meaning at a 70/30 split requiring $27m-$30m equity needed) I'd have thought by the end of q3(c2 months time), they'd arguably be $7-10m short.. Assuming pog stays where it is and there are no major operational issues in mali. That being the case, presumably the actual project is worth $10m undeveloped.. maybe that can count as part of the equity, without using Yanfolila as collateral. Or maybe as some have suggested a share issue is another option to bridge this gap.

In the end equity/debt, discounts+dilution/interest payments+debt burdens, to some degree it's all swings and roundabouts.. if the project is compelling enough.. I'm not sure it'll end up mattering a huge amount.

I'm not questioning the straightness of your bat, I previously found your contributions interesting. Though I'm not sure all that much has changed in the good/bad aspects of this company in 6 months. I agree dan has made quite a few mistakes, I see him as someone trying to catch balls.. but comedically fumbling each catch in turn. That said, this quarter update he got done what he had implied.. hopefully with a bit more consistency in that regards, there will be more trust. Operations guy appointment is a good move.

The 'tone' of you posts seems to have changed a bit from 6 months ago tones(when you were holding), and that's fair enough I guess. People's opinions/perspectives change.
Feb 21 @ 24p
"It's about timing your purchases when the value of the company is rock bottom knowing it will come good when the fundamentals are strong. In my view, HUM fits that bill and these prices are rock bottom. Of course, there's no guarantee that it will only rise from here and cannot fall further, but I like my RvR at current levels and in my mind, it is skewed heavily on the reward side. Time will tell, but at an EV/EBITDA of 1.6, and FY21 EBITDA of $60-70m with mcap of £85m, I'm a buyer."

As regards development funding, it's all just speculation at the moment. I think it'd be better to do it without a placing(for shareholders), but maybe those who think this won't be possible are right.

But yes, I agree that the money put into pasofino(rather than here) was pretty sucky.

Sale of CORA could definitely suggests cash for deal for Kouroussa.. maybe sooner than july. If that is the case, probably a better outcome. Would be even better if they've haggled a bit. Then be good to see at least some operational/cost improvements at Yanfolila going forward.. to support funding the new mine in the time allowed. Wait and see I guess.

I'm not so sure on the logic that the potential buyback drives the share price as suggested. This is not bumper earnings from this year, but rather money they have been sitting on from the sale of the waste business. It's already in the share price. If they spend £400m buying back their own shares, the question is - is that the best use of the money? If the shares are cheap, then maybe it is. If the shares are expensive.. then it's probably not a good use of money. Yes there will be fewer shares in circulation, but the company will also have £400m less sitting behind the remaining shares.

@ teamwork86 Only guessing but if the loans are secured on the assets of which the values have fallen then presumably the value of the loans also falls? Possible also that the rate of repayments may be impacted by energy prices and hence effect the lucrativeness of the loan?

For me I decided the best way forward was to sell around half prior to the div/consolidation and take the payment/reduction on the rest. They are in isa with dividends automatically reinvested.. the fee is only a flat £1 I think. Then if any weakness down the road I will look to re-buy those sold.

And yes for anyone holding here for a while, this is all a bit of a non event. The good performance / sale of the waste business was already in the share price.. this is just an administrative event.

Challenging 6 months, and the 6 before that.. and the 6 before that. But that said I think there is probably more room here now for upside than downside. Weakness still seems largely due to the electricity price outlook. They seem keen to suggest they are erring on the side of caution in a lot of their assumptions, though the hit here does seem to have been a fair bit worse than some more dedicated renewables companies. The moves in share price has been a fair bit more exaggerated than the moves in NAV.. so let's hope they can give us a bit of good news as regards the latter next month. Natural gas prices seem to be slowly improving.. I was in here at c£1.05, but know others who bought at £1.20-1.30 who are barely breaking even with dividends accounted for over several years.

I wonder what happens to those who got 2 shares through the watershare thingy. Do they now get consolidated down to one? or rounded back up to 2..?

Thanks for the reply Starknight.. and yes my point is invalid really anyway as the money(355p) is being paid out so no longer sitting behind the share value.

Though the other things to weight are the acquisition value(is it a good deal?) and the potential share buyback. But the special div/consolidation does seem a bit like giving with one hand and taking with the other. Though possibly arguable that a bigger company, with a reduced dividend burden will have more scope/reliability for continuing increases to the dividend over time. at inflation+ rates.

" and the lower number of shares means the total value of your investment reduces from £10,685 to £7,135"

Is this likely to be the case? Surely if the consolidation will result in a higher value for the reduced number of shares in issue? What they represent will not be changing, other than growing a bit through the acquisition.

I take your point on dividends though.

Several reasons.. changing views toward this type of investment, last year's dividend cut(particularly when compared to other majors who did not cut), the fact that despite earnings having recently improved they are prioritising paying down debt over increasing returns to shareholders, questions over the fact reserves are not being replaced as quickly as existing ones are produced. Shell has been possibly the slowest of the big western companies to recover, questionable given hindsight whether the div cut was actually needed. However, in the end.. so long as they are making money and they definitely are atm(unlike last year).. shareholder are gaining whether that money is used to pay a dividend, buy back shares, or pay down debt. I'm reasonably happy for them to get on top of the debt first, while gradually increasing the dividend. Other majors have recovered quicker, but if prices stay where they are - this'll recover some more too given time.

I agree, also not helped by dividend cut. However in the long run this may prove to have been the prudent thing to do. Every reason to expect in the mid term energy prices will get back to where they were, which should see a reversal in the fortunes here. Indeed other energy related companies have already started pegging back pandemic related losses. Will this quickly get back to where it was at the end of 2019, maybe not.. but I don't think £1.15-£1.20 is unrealistic. Worth hanging around for the recovery I reckon.