Member Info for dusty42

10% increase is pretty decent(long may it continue).. and 2.2 is a nice round number. Might mean it's keeping pace with inflation at least!

Nothing to complain about here performance wise since I got in at least.

Dividend in the last year was 9p.

I'm not sure that looking at an arbitary prior timespan neccasarily reflects the prospects of a company going forward. For the earlier half of 21 the commodities that apf is biased towards were not really in a bull market imo. I've held here for quite a while, and pretty happy with how I've done and the current outlook.

Met coal @ $360/t today.

Hi CaneToad, q3 was an all time record quarter, but it won't be for long.. of that I'm fairly certain. Agree @ q4 paying at the highest rate at kestrel, but crucially it was also significantly above the highest rate threshhold for most of the quarter and still is now(you only get the 15% on the portion above the higher threshhold). We don't yet know how much was produced.. but assuming it was inline with expectations, happy days. One thing that worries me slightly is the possibility of steel production in china slowing what with winter olympics and covid.. but on the whole I can't see prices declining too much as things stand. I think this would be higher now if it were not for JT's selling.

I guess they will anounce the dividend for this year in a couple of days. Based on the '6% of the year end NAV' policy(does that mean 31st december?) which was £1.46.. that'd work out to around 8.7p or 8.8p for the coming year.

And relative to the current SP, £1.40 as I write, that'll be a yield of 6.2% based on an 8.7p for the year payout.

'Continued policy of six per cent dividend on year-end net asset value per share for annual distribution to shareholders.'

I'm not sure if you saw the link to an interview with the ceo Cacher posted earlier in december?

I believe they are targeting initial small scale commercial production for q2 22, with a bankable feasability study for the full scale operation due in q1 I think. This is only a link to the project info on their website but has mention at the bottom of the quick start:
https://www.braziliannickel.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Braz-Nick-A4-Sept-2021.pdf

Hi CaneToad, I've tried to calculate/estimate the numbers for the kestrel royalty in the past, it's difficult as it's not clear what prices are realised at the mine. We can see the FOB price but rail transport costs are a bit unknown. Suffice to say with regard to met coal, I'm fairly confident this q will see record income, assuming production quantities are inline with expectations. This royalty pays very well when prices are high.

Then there's the cobalt stream, short history.. but given where cobalt price have been and are now, this will also make a very decent contribution.

@ cherryburn - indeed, pretty happy with where prices are for the start of 2022.. and also hopefully some income from around May from Piaui.

Cobalt at $70500/t this morning.

Met coal still sitting at $336/t.

Another question for you Cacher(or anyone else).. Any idea what happened with the Groundhog royalty?

It was shown for a long time in th development royalties list for APF, but seems to have disapeared. Did they get rid of this? A quick scan of the rns list and I couldn't see any notification.
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/royalty-update-groundhog-anthracite-project/

Run by Antrum:
https://businesschief.com/corporate-finance-2/why-atrum-coals-groundhog-anthracite-project-canada-so-profitable

Indeed on the 'old' royalties page(still hanging around), it's there.
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/royalties-oldapril21/

Hang on, I've just clocked that I miss read your response. 90% again in 2022 would be awesome!

Thanks for the response Cacher. Yes I knew they were expecting 90% this year, but had no idea about 2022. To be honest 60% could/should still see it making a very healthy contribution to income at apf if prices stay anywhere near where they are now. My hope would be that that figure also be weighted toward the first half of the year.

Hi Casher, yes some income from Piauí starting in May would indeed be good news. I wonder if a decision has been made on the upsizing option there, hence the presentation tomorrow? Though may be a bit early for that I guess.

Do you(or anyone else) have any idea how much mining at kestrel is likely to still be in the royalty area next year?

I missed this.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/968061/anglo-pacific-group-projects-are-now-75-battery-metals-focussed-968061.html

"I don't think the market understands yet how significant the rise in coking coal and cobalt prices are for the company," Treger said.

I am confused as to why the surname of the cfo got starred out in my below post!

Bit of a pickup here towards the end of the day.. unbridled excitment over mr ***** talking tomorrow? Or just a slow awakening to some good q4 results in the pipeline? Met coal back over $300/t and cobalt sneaking upwards.

Yes, I think two all time record quarters in a row is now an inevitability(despite us only being in the 2nd month of q4).

Met coal prices come off the boil a bit of late - but still in a very nice place for the the kestrel royalty. Plus looking like they may well head north again imo. And cobalt edging up all the time currently. The current SP is a bit of a mystery to me.

Longwall change at kestrel in q3.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/964124/anglo-pacific-group-hail-record-royalty-income-in-third-quarter-as-coal-and-cobalt-performed-well-964124.html

Hi CaneToad, I also hold both shares.. like I said I think both good companies. A key thing here is the current copper price, it flatters atym, but times may not always be so rosy. I've been with caml a long time(during times of lower metal prices), and they've been a steady performer. If prices stay where they are or rise further, atym will do very well also I'm sure. Meantime both have opportunity for further growth.

I would disagree that they are similar. About the only similarity is that they both produce copper.

- CAML produces copper, zinc, lead.. ATYM is just copper
- CAML operates in 2 countries, ATYM one
- CAML produces at a very low cost, ATYM respectable.. but not as low
- ATYM produces more copper

I think they are both good companies but they are quite different. Imo caml would be the safer place to be if prices fell(diversified, low cost), atym probably the more lucrative place when prices are high.

Another observation.. kestrel's q3(with a long wall change) beat q1 and q2 combined. One month into the last quarter, and it doesn't seem wholely impossible kestrel's q4 could beat q1, q2 & q3 combined(obviously entirely dependand on prices for the next 2 months and volumes).. but that'd be a nice end to the year.

Interesting that JT refers to a current spot price of $395/t.. that is about $50 higher then I thought Austrailian FOB prices were atm. Though kestrel is supposed to be high quality so maybe it could command this premium?

If prices stay around where they are, I wonder if kestrel could cover(or at least come close to) the whole year's dividend payouts with 1q of income.