The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Seems there is a record high met coal price at $415/t, but unfortunately due to disruption at mines in north america and austrailia. I think kestrel has been evacuated due to heavy rain. Though not sure if it has affetced the actual mine or just access routes and the evacuation just a precaution. I guess that if they can get back to mining relatively soon the boost to prices could make the situation a net positive.
My guess at the average FOB price in q4 would slightly more conservative, somewhere in the range of $300-$350. But yes, I agree that the SP is not reflecting the change in outlook since mid year. In fact in h1 the SP was higher at times.
@adv11, no worries.. I just didn't want to misinform. So far as I can remember it came up as a question at the end of the recent interview they put out.
Not that I am aware of. It was due to the cobalt stream aquisition last year.. I think they said they expected the schedule to be normalised this year(I think it was in some recent interview, but don't have time to look now).
So 2021 started slowly here, modest h1 portfolio income of £16.2m. But then q3 was pretty nice(a record) with income at $23.6m(or £17.3m at todays rate). Based on relevant commodity prices during q4, assuming production was inline with expectations.. seems to me we've a very good chance of beating q3. So first 3 quarters bought in £33.5m, my guess q4 might be in the £20-25m range. So that'd see the year at £53.5-58.5m, just short of the 2019 record of £59.5m.. that said - quite possible I am underestimating kestrel! So not impossible that record could get broken.
And met coal now @ $408/t is a _very_ nice start to 2022.
From what I've read the unrest has largely quietened down now. Not to say it can't return at some point, but maybe enough has been offered to placate the protesters for now.
I didn't really expect this to impact kounrad, as it's not near a large urban area - but of course you never know. In this case the anger seems to have been against the government rather than foreign businesses within the country. The mine probably employs a decent number in the locality and has other economic benefits, so possibly unlikely to be targetted(not that things always unfold logically in situations like this).
I bought a few more today. I still think caml has great prospects and was probably undervalued before this even kicked off. Once they get to debt free, assuming no aquisitions in the mean time, they'll be making a lot of free cash. And if they can find another(decently priced) aquisition, that'll be good too.
10% increase is pretty decent(long may it continue).. and 2.2 is a nice round number. Might mean it's keeping pace with inflation at least!
Nothing to complain about here performance wise since I got in at least.
Dividend in the last year was 9p.
I'm not sure that looking at an arbitary prior timespan neccasarily reflects the prospects of a company going forward. For the earlier half of 21 the commodities that apf is biased towards were not really in a bull market imo. I've held here for quite a while, and pretty happy with how I've done and the current outlook.
Met coal @ $360/t today.
Hi CaneToad, q3 was an all time record quarter, but it won't be for long.. of that I'm fairly certain. Agree @ q4 paying at the highest rate at kestrel, but crucially it was also significantly above the highest rate threshhold for most of the quarter and still is now(you only get the 15% on the portion above the higher threshhold). We don't yet know how much was produced.. but assuming it was inline with expectations, happy days. One thing that worries me slightly is the possibility of steel production in china slowing what with winter olympics and covid.. but on the whole I can't see prices declining too much as things stand. I think this would be higher now if it were not for JT's selling.
I guess they will anounce the dividend for this year in a couple of days. Based on the '6% of the year end NAV' policy(does that mean 31st december?) which was £1.46.. that'd work out to around 8.7p or 8.8p for the coming year.
And relative to the current SP, £1.40 as I write, that'll be a yield of 6.2% based on an 8.7p for the year payout.
'Continued policy of six per cent dividend on year-end net asset value per share for annual distribution to shareholders.'
I'm not sure if you saw the link to an interview with the ceo Cacher posted earlier in december?
I believe they are targeting initial small scale commercial production for q2 22, with a bankable feasability study for the full scale operation due in q1 I think. This is only a link to the project info on their website but has mention at the bottom of the quick start:
https://www.braziliannickel.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Braz-Nick-A4-Sept-2021.pdf
Hi CaneToad, I've tried to calculate/estimate the numbers for the kestrel royalty in the past, it's difficult as it's not clear what prices are realised at the mine. We can see the FOB price but rail transport costs are a bit unknown. Suffice to say with regard to met coal, I'm fairly confident this q will see record income, assuming production quantities are inline with expectations. This royalty pays very well when prices are high.
Then there's the cobalt stream, short history.. but given where cobalt price have been and are now, this will also make a very decent contribution.
@ cherryburn - indeed, pretty happy with where prices are for the start of 2022.. and also hopefully some income from around May from Piaui.
Cobalt at $70500/t this morning.
Met coal still sitting at $336/t.
Another question for you Cacher(or anyone else).. Any idea what happened with the Groundhog royalty?
It was shown for a long time in th development royalties list for APF, but seems to have disapeared. Did they get rid of this? A quick scan of the rns list and I couldn't see any notification.
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/royalty-update-groundhog-anthracite-project/
Run by Antrum:
https://businesschief.com/corporate-finance-2/why-atrum-coals-groundhog-anthracite-project-canada-so-profitable
Indeed on the 'old' royalties page(still hanging around), it's there.
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/royalties-oldapril21/
Hang on, I've just clocked that I miss read your response. 90% again in 2022 would be awesome!
Thanks for the response Cacher. Yes I knew they were expecting 90% this year, but had no idea about 2022. To be honest 60% could/should still see it making a very healthy contribution to income at apf if prices stay anywhere near where they are now. My hope would be that that figure also be weighted toward the first half of the year.
Hi Casher, yes some income from Piauí starting in May would indeed be good news. I wonder if a decision has been made on the upsizing option there, hence the presentation tomorrow? Though may be a bit early for that I guess.
Do you(or anyone else) have any idea how much mining at kestrel is likely to still be in the royalty area next year?
I missed this.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/968061/anglo-pacific-group-projects-are-now-75-battery-metals-focussed-968061.html
"I don't think the market understands yet how significant the rise in coking coal and cobalt prices are for the company," Treger said.
I am confused as to why the surname of the cfo got starred out in my below post!
Bit of a pickup here towards the end of the day.. unbridled excitment over mr ***** talking tomorrow? Or just a slow awakening to some good q4 results in the pipeline? Met coal back over $300/t and cobalt sneaking upwards.
Yes, I think two all time record quarters in a row is now an inevitability(despite us only being in the 2nd month of q4).
Met coal prices come off the boil a bit of late - but still in a very nice place for the the kestrel royalty. Plus looking like they may well head north again imo. And cobalt edging up all the time currently. The current SP is a bit of a mystery to me.