RE: Mods meeting with QFI board21 Jul 2022 21:46
Firstly, thanks to everyone for your thoughts. Glad to have overwhelmingly positive feedback -- it's greatly appreciated, as we've obviously got to take time off work, and pay to travel from all over the country & beyond to visit. A few made acidic and unkind comments, but that's just one of those things with large communities.
From my perspective:
- Morocco looks very strong, they're now with "The A Team" at the client who are keen to get it done. This is my favourite to get over the line first in any meaningful way. It's modular, so can be rolled out one piece of equipment at a time in a way that is low-risk to the client. If you consider that they have a fleet of rotary calcinators, this recipe can be multiplied out N times for however many they have (lots, if you do some digging).
As others have commented, I hope they are able to execute expeditiously, as there is still the spectre of Covid, negative market conditions, war, etc.
But the economics are utterly compelling for these kinds of companies, and they don't have an easy option to change to any other fuel for these kinds of plants -- especially the remote ones.
- The team believe MSC is still on schedule in terms of the LONO trial initiation, but there's an alteration to the plans that 'will become clear soon'. Intriguing, and reassuring that we're generally still on track. Not sure what said alteration is, but hopefully it's a positive one! It's clear the various layers of bureaucracy are taking a while to chew through things and give their tuppence. Still huge for the company if and when it comes through.
- Utah - still not 100% clear what the plan for MSAR is, but the assay data is arriving and I guess that should prompt decision-making sooner rather than later. Seems they need to firm up their plans a tad. Still very promising, but some key moments coming in next few months, by the looks of it.
- Panama/Honduras - still early days, but if/when they get a trial, this should move fairly quickly. Always feel there's a bit of an unknown factor with customers in those regions. But the fact they are IPPs (independent power producers) makes me think it's more likely to happen than with a parastatal organisation.
- Mexico, etc - need a breakthrough on political level. I put this into "future" category. I'm sure it will become more plausible once MSC and/or Morocco pop.
So, I think there are some key weeks and months coming up now; with the financial market conditions being scary there's plenty of risk that needs to be considered. But, I think QFI have a much better chance to access advantageous/conventional finance if they can execute MSC and Morocco commercial deals within the existing funding envelope.
I got the sense they were very keenly aware at how much they have overrun guidance and that it's not a good look. However, it seemed that some of the deadlines had allowed application of appropriate urgency to counterparties to 'make a decision' (insert vulg