Member Info for dustofnations

Big Sky are required to use Valkor as their preferred contractor. Refer to the Petroteq RNS about the Big Sky license deal for more on that.

I would suggest that is a longer term opportunity for the reasons previously outlined, but also including extensive construction times.

The reference you point to does sound like MSAR. Steve obviously has expressed his desire to use MSAR via several of his companies. Whether that transpires or not, we shall see, but it's certainly not a bad sign.

There are several different projects that Steve Byle is involved in.

Valkor, via Greenfield and Heavy Sweet Oil, are first undertaking a (fairly) conventional heavy oil drilling campaign in Utah. You can see their field plans online via Utah DOGM and various presentations they have given on YouTube (search back to find the links, or consult the forums).

Longer term, Greenfield, HSO, and Big Sky have all expressed have their intention to get into surface oil sands play. However, a full sands processing plant requires a lot more CAPEX and time to get rolling than the downhole/in-situ opportunity. They can both be run from the same acreages.

Without commenting on any specifics on what SP is attainable, etc, I'd just point out that the level of development and of the business pipeline is significantly better now than it was at share prices multiples of today.

Nothing guaranteed with QFI, especially not their timelines, but I've been happy with the level of progress.

In general, the ability to access client sites has improved dramatically (re: covid), and there's also been a slow easing of shortages of microchips and shipping capacity. Things are still far from ideal, but hopefully there will be fewer external headwinds affecting QFI's ability to execute key trials and commercial agreements.

Concurrently, the pressure to improve environmental performance in marine is increasing as everyone anticipates IMO, EU, and US-related regulations on key pollutants, including CO2, PMx, and black soot. These are areas where MSAR and bioMSAR are particularly strong, due to their uplift in efficiency and improved burnout (plus, for bioMSAR, low-carbon feedstocks).

This is all coinciding with a sharp increases in both absolute oil prices and the spreads between distillate and high sulphur heavy fuels - so, everyone can see the economic case is compelling presently.

I just hope QFI move fast enough to provide MSAR/bioMSAR solutions to customers when they need it the most (i.e. ASAP).

As various people have pointed out, there are some key events coming this quarter or soon after that should give us a firmer understanding of timelines and trajectory: fuel supply for MSC trials (which typically can transition to commercial supply fairly easily); Morocco completing trials and commercial negotiations; Utah drilling campaign and trials, etc. Some of these could end up being synergistic, depending on the timing and details, so that's something to look forward to.

Big Sky were mentioned by Jason during the recent IMC presentation (timestamp approx 8m40s).

PetroJam in Jamaica seems another possibility. It's 50,000 bopd, so whether that qualifies as 'pretty large' is up for debate.

Hi everyone.

The full IMC recording is out now. I have release an audio-only version that I've processed with various Izotope Audio Tools to reduce the horribly annoying laptop button clicks that made it hard to hear.

I've tried my best and it's not perfect, but greatly improved I think.

Enjoy!

https://quorumzine.gitlab.io/quorum/content/2022/10/04/improved-audio-company-meeting.html

Yes, they also want to compare the performance of MSAR vs bioMSAR fuels to verify their financial, technical, and environmental benefits. The best way to do that is by having an identical technical setup to eliminate as many variables as possible.

One way is to run the trials consecutively and be very patient, as you naturally get the same setup. The other way is to run trials in parallel on vessels that are as near a clone of each other as possible. Of course, in reality they will be on slightly different routes and all that, but over the course of the trial the analysts should be able to figure it out. Less uncertainty in the data is always better.

As others have pointed out, Jason said they'll want to get the bioMSAR trial underway first and I'm sure if all is well, then they'll look at rolling in the MSAR trial vessel. It would be nice for us to have 2 vessels running and get a bit of revenue, potentially...

You are correct Jason didn't say it was Bremerhaven explicitly, I should have been clearer.

Here's why I think it's a dead cert that is what he's referring to: Bremerhaven is Leandra's sister ship, and was purchased by MSC at the same time as Leandra. She is identical, with the exception of the enhanced fuel booster system. She has the same Flex engine that MSAR has been tested on previously, and would obviously be a good vey A/B test if you are trying to compare two fuels.

Few more points occurred to me.

- Emulsifying HFO is considered a reasonable option for POCs to prove the technology works, also perhaps bitumen terminals.

- No refiner has been decided for MSC, but they prefer somewhere like Netherlands as there is better tax recognition for biofuels.

- Cepsa still on the cards for Morocco and MSC in longer term as it's "ideally placed" in med for bunkering.

- They are aware of SB's various side projects like Green Flame and similar, but it is not something they are focussing on right now. They think the Utah stuff is further progressed and they are pushing in that direction. I think this is a "don't get distracted" thing... Noted.

- Utah did not get clear answers on whether any consumers are lined up or whether it's just aspirational still. JM did comment that there are a few local consumers they could supply to but the main goal is now marine market (it's very low sulphur). Still sounds a bit woolly on the Valkor side, tbh. Let's see

- Aquafuel second round of testing and optimisation for bioMSAR was delayed as Aquafuel were unable to get the parts they needed. They have just arrived, so that testing has commenced already. Hopefully people can stop fretting about that now.

If anyone else has further notes, that would be appreciated.

Notes off the top of my head

- Jason is in Singapore to attend a major bunkering conference to try to speak to various potential clients, suppliers, etc (sibcon)

- AM confirmed that his intent with the M&A section was that Quadrise might have the opportunity to make small acquisitions that complement their technology/business, but currently financial resources are the limitation. He didn't mean they are actively trying to flog the company

- JM said QFI have had very promising conversations with Wartsila that indicate, depending on results of trial, they could get a fairly broad engine approval for MSAR LONO - so no need for separate LONOs for model years, cylinder count, stroke length, etc. That would obviously be a massive win if it transpires

- JM finally admitted there's the potential for MSC Bremerhaven to run MSAR while the bioMSAR trial is underway. Presumably it depends on how well that first trial is going. He's completely swerved answering that question before, so something has changed on this topic (positively). I always maintained that it was surely too much of a coincidence that MSC bought Leandra's sister ship for them not to at least have the intent to do something MSAR-related with it (in addition to obviously being great for their usual cargo shipping business needs)

- JM won't disclose when Leandra is going into dry dock as that is "sensitive" for some reason ??. Bit ridiculous, but OK

- Morocco burn should be happening pretty soon, fuel is on the way. Problems with microchip shortages meant their trial MMU could not be commissioned. Did not really explain why they couldn't use one of the other MMUs instead of delaying the trials for a quarter! bioMSAR will be manufactured shortly and sent over as they are testing both

- Morocco client is very keen to go ahead, and there are proposals to do a third trial at a site that is very similar to Site B. I hope we aren't seeing any major QFI Mission Creep here as expanding scope has been a cause of delay in the past! Let's get the basics over the line

- Click, click, click. Yes, it was me who complained about that and Andy brought it up. Thank goodness, JM then put in an external mouse

- Americas sounds interesting, but still early enough stage that I don't think we should be paying too much attention yet. Unless someone else got a different impression? The refinery use-case looks nice, but we know how slow they tend to be

- Utah progressing as per our sleuthing on DOGM hearings and documents. They still don't have any assays because Valkor have decided to prioritise accelerating the full production schedule at the expense of exploration being a bit later/reduced. Samples they received previously were too contaminated and Valkor have optimised their processes significantly enough that it may no longer be representative. They hope to be going out to site soon to discuss delivering the MMU for trials (presumably the one with trace heating for cold Utah climate)

re: IIs. Many funds have suffered a significant number of redemptions (cashouts) they need to honour, so they're selling into anything that gives them liquidity that means they can get the punter their cash.

As the market has gone super bearish, this is causing them to have to sell even when it's not good timing.

Watch it here:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/quadrise-international-ltd_ian-king-interview-with-jason-miles-activity-6982659257938669570-7uew

I thought there was a fair bit in this update.

MSC

- POC and LONO now kicking off Q1 -- so information leaked via SB and other sources was accurate.

- Clarifies that they are indeed doing bioMSAR and MSAR full LONO testing, with 25k tonnes of each. That was my expectation before, but some seemed to think it was bioMSAR only.

- We will get announcements of route and fuel suppliers in Q4.

- Leandra will be going into dry dock in the near future, by the sounds of it.

- Some technical testing will happen imminently, but hopefully that's a formality and will be OK.

Utah

- Confirms sleuthing that they have not received their permissions for drilling yet. As we know from the docs I dug up, the next DOGM board meeting is 26th October, so I guess they'll start their activities immediately after that. Hence Q4 for progress on this.

- No mention of customers lined up, etc... So, I guess it's just the finalisation of commercial terms? Need more clarity on this.

Morocco

- Delay in Morocco was due to Quadrise side, essentially. Supply problems, personnel availability. Not very impressive, really, given the importance of this project to the financial health of the company. They have other MMUs, so they should have found a way (by hook or by crook).

- Fuel is made and on the way, so we should be looking at that happening in the next few weeks by the sounds of it. They wouldn't want to leave the fuel lying around for ages in a hot climate (even at this time of year).

- Very much alive, despite some confident pronouncements of its demise.

- Still saying they will negotiate commercial terms this year. Who will the supplier be?

Americas

- Plenty of interesting stuff in here, but not far along enough for us to pay too much attention to yet.

- Large Caribbean refinery interested in internal use case, maybe trials in 2023.
-- Perhaps this is Trinidad / Heritage Petroleum (formerly PetroTrin), and another Steve Byle adjacent project?
-- Will have to look up all large Caribbean refiners to see what is plausible.

- Mexico, submitted studies but evidently the client hasn't said much in return. Don't hang your hat on this.

- Panama/Honduras still just planning by the sounds of it. Claim they want commercial agreements in 2023. So, let's see. There's not much of 2022

I found this on YouTube today (taken just 2 weeks ago by the looks of it): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNi2CNk91x0

Her paintwork is looking VERY rough, as previously discussed. I love how slapdash her name paintjob is.

Certainly don't think they will want to wait too much longer for dry docking by the looks of the state of her paint.

A comment suggests she's empty because of a logistical issue to move containers around from places with excesses to places with shortages, so likely still not dry docked (h/t jpm)

I don't remember Maersk talking quite so openly about MSAR in social media and press releases as MSC do. It's great to see, and hopefully indicative of how serious they are.

Have tweeted about it here with some context: https://twitter.com/quorumzine/status/1575475060709752832
Please do RT to share it around

Press release:
https://www.msc.com/en/newsroom/news/2022/september/msc-rallies-net-zero-momentum-at--maritime-transport-efficiency-conference

Thanks to maggulus and Rob79 for spotting the original source.

Delighted to see MSC -- the biggest shipping company in the world -- speaking about QFI publicly. Their customers and partners also read their press releases, so MSC know that MSC and MSAR/bioMSAR are going to be linked. That's confidence and commitment to put their brand and our brand in the same breath.

MSC mention the trials getting underway in 1Q2023, which matches with when we expected the full LONO to begin (post POC trials). It will be interesting if Jason gives us any more refined timelines in the results and IMC.

Excellent, and look forward to hearing much more.

Mo has said on a few occasions that he'd buy when the NOMAD allowed, but warned that he's not as wealthy Cathal and hence some might be 'a bit disappointed' by the amount he buys.

I'm not disappointed in the slightest, and see this ~£50,000/510,204 share purchase as a very significant investment for someone who also has many other family-related cost commitments to meet. In general, ORPH employees do not have astronomical salaries, even at C-level, so it's likely a significant % of his yearly salary.

So, thanks Mo, and keep up the good work. A definite vote of confidence from him.

Yes, it's a closed event that is not recorded and is for industry insiders, not for investors. I don't think there is any reason to expect a connection with SP and the conference.

I agree that the narrowing of the 'broad pipeline of projects' down to one marine megaproject again would be a concern because of counterparty risk (cf. KSA, Maersk). I certainly hope that Morocco isn't dead; it is definitely frustrating that a straightforward industrial trial has been evading us for this long. But, I want to hear a what the QFI team have say for themselves on the topic instead of just guessing that it has going wrong.

The MSC project is still looking good, but I'd like to know when MSC Leandra is going into dry dock.

And let's also see whether the oft-mentioned projects in Panama and Honduras are any further forward.

I think most shareholders fully realise the current situation, but can still see the value of future-looking RDI work without somehow being distracted by the lack of progress in other areas. Everyone (including the SP) is keenly aware of that! There's just not a lot to say about it that hasn't already been said.