Member Info for Dustbin101

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-XKPoxAGlU

I am in agreement

Triad Group Plc reached a 52 week high last week :

Just for fun over the next few years I will post each time it hits a new high.

I expect the new highs to come in lumps and phases, over the next decade. ( dispersed with long periods of nothing.).

Personally I have grown my pension by avoiding stocks that have broker forecasts.
In essence, you’re being sold the virtues of the stock by the broker/ company.
Research is nearly always paid for by the company in the small cap arena , often to get the next funding round away. !!
According to Simply Wall Street, that leaves me searching around 2% of stocks.
Of that 2% the vast majority are absolute basket cases.
The London Stock Exchange lists all companies by Market Cap each month.
It’s free and an extremely good starting point for anyone who is chasing fantastic pension wealth. ( over the very long term).
Low caps have the greatest potential to grow.
Think acorn : to a spectacular tree. Requires a but of luck , Deer and rabbits , drought, ,disease, wind, new motorway, to name a few. So definitely not risk free , that said nurtured in your garden it stands a better chance.

THE SEVEN VIRTUES OF GREAT INVESTORS

BY JASON ZWEIG | APRIL 4, 2023, 9:05PM ET
Last year, in my Wall Street Journal newsletter (and in my columns), I wrote a series about the essential attributes that all great investors seem to share.
The series was inspired partly by Benjamin Graham’s declaration, in The Intelligent Investor, that intelligence is “a trait more of the character than of the brain.” It also is rooted in Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s constant emphasis on “temperament” and their repeated observations that the investors with the highest IQs often don’t earn the highest returns.
As Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote in his essay “Experience“:
Temperament is the iron wire on which the beads are strung.
I keep getting requests from readers who’d like to have all these posts collected in the same place. Someday, I might turn the series into a book, but for now, I’ll post links to them all here, along with an extremely brief summary of each.

Curiosity. As I wrote in my newsletter on Jan. 19, 2022:
Curiosity is the first investing virtue. It’s what enables you to find and develop all the others…. Ordinary investors are afraid of what they don’t know, as if they are navigating the world with those antique maps that labeled uncharted waters with the warning “here be dragons.”
Skepticism. I argued that…
…the main product of the financial industry isn’t portfolios; it’s propaganda.
And propaganda with numbers, cloaked in jargon, can hit investors like general anesthesia: You just drift off to sleep while financial professionals surgically remove your money….

Independence. As I wrote in February 2022:
…without independence, investors are doomed to mediocrity.
What’s your single most valuable asset as an investor? Your mind!
If you let other people do your thinking for you, you’ve traded away your greatest asset — and made your results and your emotions hostage to the whims of millions of strangers. And those strangers can do the strangest things.
Humility. I warned in my newsletter that humility is a…
…paradoxical blessing that you can possess if, and only if, you believe to the marrow of your bones you do not possess it. The harder you work at achieving and retaining humility, the more you will need to remind yourself that you still don’t have it, lest you puff up with pride at being humble.

Discipline. In my newsletter for Jan. 11, 2022, I highlighted a couple of examples:
Warren Buffett moved from the buzz and bustle of New York City back to Omaha in 1956, where he began managing money in his house on a placid street.

Patience. In March 2022 I wrote that patience is often measured not in months or years but in decades. Readers added their own keen suggestions for how to extend your time horizons and look past short-term disappointments.

Finally, courage, is required

A new report has urged government to increase the state pension age from 66 to 67 by 2028 in order to face the country’s “very real economic challenges”.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has delayed the decision on whether the increase should go ahead until after the next general election. The major new report, commissioned by Baroness Neville-Rolfe, said it was “not appropriate” for the government to postpone the move to 67 by 2028.

A separate DWP report in 2022 found that if Britain did not reduce spending on state pensions the government could default on the welfare state in two decades’ time.

The National Insurance Fund, which pays for benefits and pensions, would be ‘exhausted’ by 2043 without significant extra funding from the Treasury.

The TaxPayers' Alliance media campaign manager Conor Holohan told PoliticsHome that the UK's ageing population left the government with an "affordability crisis" on pensions, and that people were not keen to pay higher taxes to address it.

Triad Group Plc is not under any circumstances in my opinion a trading share.
It’s an extremely long term judgement on the future.
What in my opinion is fatal, is poor long term growth from average companies
That’s exactly what the crowd does there has to be a better way.
It’s what every financial advisor offers. ( not good enough in my opinion).
Pick the right stocks, so long as they deliver, all the work is done for you.

That said :

Its never a direct road to riches,

Here is a fact

Warren Buffet ( worlds most successful long term investor ) took 19 years from 1965 to 100 bag his portfolio. During that time it was unchanged for a 6 year period ,and it halved twice. !

100 bag : $1.00 into $100.00

The city has, in my view missed yet another future event :

The Procurement Bill going through parliament and expected to be law in the spring.

SME”S will benefit, but what the market has failed to realise is just how few SME”S have decades of experience working on U.K. government IT projects .

They have not understood that those that already know the ropes, are sitting in an excellent position.

Margins will be commensurate with the quality of the product offered, ( not the cheapest as was previously the case ). That has huge implications.

Next up is the general poor quality of most SME”S balance sheets. Triad Group Plc is rock solid.

Funding is getting tighter by the day, for those small companies desperately trying to get new Tech adopted within government.

Finally I believe a wall of cash will be attracted into the stock in future years, attracted by its growth rate , and the absolute scarcity of quality stock market listed opportunities, within this tiny space.

The listed competition can be all but ruled out, because the are larger companies not SME”S

To sum up the tables are turning in favour of smaller agile specialists within the sector.

From the FT, Triad Group Plc
Year on year, both dividends per share and earnings per share excluding extraordinary items growth increased 200.00% and 66.10%, respectively. The positive trend in dividend payments is noteworthy since very few companies in the Computer Services industry pay a dividend. Additionally when measured on a five year annualized basis, dividend per share growth ranked highest relative to its industry peers.

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This share has gone completely unnoticed by the market in my personal view .

Not only that , but because the company is tiny, in stock market terms, very little extra profit is required to increase dividends at pace.
Most good companies increase dividends ITRO 10% per year.
I will not accept that as a norm.
I require more than pedestrian growth to succeed in my goal of returning a 100 fold increase in my SIPP pension within 20 years.
Of course nothing in this world is guaranteed.
All investments carry risk , the name of the game, is to reduce that risk wherever possible.
Large growing dividends, paid out of earnings, should do the job.

What is the average dividend growth rate for the FTSE 100?
Over the last ten years the total return for the FTSE 100 was +103.98% with dividends reinvested, or a 7.38% annualised return.

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To grow you SIPP Pension at pace aim for a minimum of 20% dividend growth a year.

Food for thought :

In industrialized countries, current forecasts see that ratio shifting from today's level of 4 or 5 potential workers aged 15-64 for every pensioner to just 2 potential workers for every pensioner by 2050.

That’s an unbelievable short timeframe.

Why did the regulator not step in before the issue got so bad. ???

More to the point never, ever trust a pension provider.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-11723135/Scottish-Widows-customers-left-waiting-months-access-loved-ones-savings.html

My own provider takes 3 weeks to tap a single button to return cash.

Outrageous.

The trustees should hold their heads in shame.

First they hold bonds, offering 2% yield, when their liabilities grow at a faster rate. !

Interest rates were at 365 year lows ( did they honestly think they would stay at those lows ??)

Muppets

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John Lewis Partnership, London, saw its pension fund swing into deficit from a £474 million ($587 million) surplus for the year ended Jan. 28, as last fall's liquidity crunch hit assets and liability-related hedges.

The deficit was £69 million, as assets dropped 38.8% to £4.4 billion for the year ended Jan. 28. Liabilities also fell, but not enough to offset losses in assets. The pension fund's liabilities totaled £4.5 billion as of Jan. 28, down 33.5% for the year.

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Can you imagine how furious those staff are , when those in charge, don’t apply basic risk avoidance.

The next pension stitch up :

Millions of U.K. pensioners bought an annuity when inflation was low .
Now just in the last year the value has fallen 10%

At that rate the product will be worthless in Ten years ( with the average pensioner living 23 years past retirement.).

With inflation at 10 per cent , according to Bank of England, , each £100 of annuity income falls to just £90 in real terms after just 12 months. They will face further falls after that, slowly squeezing the value of their pension income.

Yet another win for the pension companies, at the expense of those sold an annuity .
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Annuities have turned out to be fabulously profitable for Britain’s pension companies – and something of a disaster for many of those forced into them before pensions freedom began in 2015.

Only now is it beginning to emerge just how awful those annuity rates were. An annuity is basically an income for life, and once the contract is taken out, you can’t exit it. But the pension companies that sold the elderly a dud are now helping themselves to a multibillion-pound windfall.

The sums are staggering. The pension companies based their annuity rates on projections of how long people at 65 were likely to survive. But they got their projections wrong: it turns out we are not living as long as expected. Just last week the actuaries clipped six months off projected life expectancy, with the projections now 13 months lower than in 2015.

What it means is that the pension companies won’t have to pay out as much annuity money as they originally provided for (and charged people for). Rather than handing it back to these it overcharged, locked-in pensioners, the industry is handing it to shareholders. Last week Aviva “released” £780m of cash that had been set aside to pay annuities. M&G Prudential released another £441m – 27% of its operating profit. Legal & General found £433m, while Phoenix chipped in another £205m

Today is the last day of the financial year :

Reminder of the last trading update:

Triad Group Plc
18 January 2023
Legal Entity Identifier (LEI) No. 213800MDNBFVEQEN1G84
Triad Group Plc

Trading Update
In my Chairman's Statement dated 30 November 2022, I said
"I am also delighted to say that the beginning of our second half year has seen a strong upturn in levels of new business wins and bidding activity."

I continue to be delighted at the speed and vigour of our recovery from the extraordinary delays (not of our own making) we experienced for a period of several months during the summer of 2022. Now that the Christmas holidays are behind us, we are looking forward to a very strong fourth quarter, which I am confident will be the basis for a successful following year.
Dr J C Rigg
Executive Chairman, Triad Group Plc
18 January 2023

Thu 30 Mar 2023 14.56 BST

A decision on whether to bring forward the date when the state pension age rises to 68 has been postponed until after the next general election, the government has announced.

More from the chap ,who like myself, refuses to accept the **** poor average returns from long term investments on the stock market. (7%, just 4% after inflation )

Find just one 100 bagger and your initial £10,000 investment returns £1M.

Do that within your pension, and you’re sorted.

My single share investment Triad group plc never puts out forward earnings estimates.

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Chris Mayer

@chriswmayer
Companies should stop giving earnings guidance because it does not add value - and could have big hidden costs. From Valuation 7th edition by Koller, Goedhart and Wessels:

"Many companies believe that providing guidance on their expected earnings for the upcoming quarter or year can lead to higher valuations, lower share price volatility, and greater market liquidity for their shares at what they perceive to be limited costs.

"Unfortunately, there is no evidence that guidance delivers any of these benefits…

"We find that whether companies issue guidance does not affect their earnings multiples, returns to shareholders, or share price volatility.

"However, earnings guidance could lead to significant but hidden costs. Companies at risk of missing their own forecast could be tempted to artificially improve their short-term earnings."

Chris Mayer

@chriswmayer
Companies should stop giving earnings guidance because it does not add value - and could have big hidden costs. From Valuation 7th edition by Koller, Goedhart and Wessels:

"Many companies believe that providing guidance on their expected earnings for the upcoming quarter or year can lead to higher valuations, lower share price volatility, and greater market liquidity for their shares at what they perceive to be limited costs.

"Unfortunately, there is no evidence that guidance delivers any of these benefits…

"We find that whether companies issue guidance does not affect their earnings multiples, returns to shareholders, or share price volatility.

"However, earnings guidance could lead to significant but hidden costs. Companies at risk of missing their own forecast could be tempted to artificially improve their short-term earnings."

My chosen share to hopefully enable my target of a 100 fold rise in my SIPP Pension over 20 years, is (Triad Group Plc ).
Another very important move by the government is prompt payment to SME”S, that’s been built into the New Procurement Bill. Triad is an SME
The large players will have to partner up with SME”S to win contracts in many cases.
Payments to those SME”S will have to be on a 30 day schedule.
When an SME wins a direct contract the same terms apply.

“The government is already demonstrating its own commitment to prompt payment through the Procurement Bill, which is currently being debated in Parliament. The legislation sets out the requirement for 30 day payment terms to apply in public sector supply chains which will help level the playing field for SMEs and encourage more businesses with smaller budgets to bid for public sector contracts”

Pension Derisking

Buxton says that de-equitisation has been exacerbated in the UK due to the unintended consequences of Robert Maxwell and the disappearance of the Mirror Group pension assets. Regulatory changes forced companies to account for pension deficits on their balance sheets which they needed to make good in the following ten years. As he points out, “companies were on the hook for any pension fund deficits but were unlikely to be able to share in any surpluses through contribution holidays. This asymmetry led them to close their defined benefit pension schemes. Once a pension fund ceases to have an infinite life, with new members joining as older ones retire, its attitude to risk changes materially. It is only concerned with meeting its final liabilities until its last member dies. This is at the heart of why the UK savings industry has become entirely risk-averse. Billions have flooded out of equities, which all long-term studies have historically provided the best real returns after inflation, in favour of liability-matching bonds. Regulation has prevented £1.5 trillion held in UK pension schemes from being available to invest in supporting growing UK businesses

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Just to reiterate my view :

Never let a pension manager get near your pension.

Invest a tiny amount in super fast growing , cash rich, dividend paying, companies and hold .

Chris Mayer list on how to filter potential 100 baggers, which are ideal for for pension primarily to reduce risk .

In doing so , they are in my personal opinion good for widows and orphans.

1/ Huge insider skin in the game.
2/ No debt Strong balance sheet.
3/ Target 20% growth
4/ The power of compounding.

One only needs a small amount of cash and 20 years on your side to achieve it .

Invest when your young in an ISA and it’s job done half way through your life .