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I'm afraid you will be right Costello. That is the nature of Keras. Already people have been selling. That's OK for me even though it sounds as though you are a lot more underwater than me. I have done my homework on Keras and Calidus but only as if they were listed in the middle of 2017. Do you still hold your shares from way back? I really feel for you if you have lost a lot here. On my first foray in to AIM I backed a company called Bioprogress near its peak and lost a fair bit. Was I bitter, you bet. I lost more in other AIM companies but over time I got better at investing. I also use a stop loss whereas many on AIM hold on and on and on. I buy into better opportunities and forget bad shares. Like you, I am still emotional over my shares, but now I counter that with research and number crunching. I try not to trust management. Bulletin boards are not great sources of knowledge but are indicators of sentiment. You soon get to see those who have something worthwhile to say. The rest are just noise. I've learned to move on when a share doesn't work for me. I don't rationalise well when I am bitter. If you would like to tell me why you don't like Keras/Calidus I would be interested, but only if you can put the past behind you and look at this going forward. These companies should only be considered historically from say mid-summer 2017. Before that is a waste of time. I look forward to your considered unemotional analysis.
MisterPositive You don't value a resource at current prices.� There are all sorts of factors that need to be considered.� For example gold's current price is 1350 dollars per ounce, but a typical value for in-ground gold resources is 40 dollars. If we apply a ratio of 40/1350 to your figures we get 32720 * 31500 * 40 / 1350 = 31.5m 10200 * 31500 * 40 / 1350 = 9.5m 4300 * 27200 * 40 / 1350 = 3.5m That gives 44.5m.� However that assumes a ratio that I suspect is too high since it applies to a precious metal, not an industrial metal. If you half the ratio you get 22.25m. Now none of these ratios have any significance except as comparison, but are better than valuing on pure metal prices. On top of this you have to factor in the risk and the time involved for this to be proved over the years of turning an explored, indicated resource into produced metals.� So a good idea is to try to find a similar company. One could have a look at Wolf Minerals, WFLE on AIM, for a company comparative evaluation: 35.7mt Tungsten reserves and a producing mine currently valued at 46.12M pounds market cap.� Let's say you apply a 50% discount to an explorer compared to a producer then were Wolf to have resources but no producing mine, you might value it at 23M pounds. None of this is meant to make any valuation of Thor but simply to get people thinking about being more analytic and quantitative in their valuations.
Pablo, there seems to be some debate as to how to estimate the nuggety conglomerate gold. As I understand it, NOVO are not happy with conventional drilling as an estimation method. They said so and their share price suffered. That's not to say the gold isn't there in the Pilbara, but mining investors like official estimates. It has been suggested that they do bulk sampling and indeed just mine on exploration licences. Now, thankfully, DR has not gone near any discussion of conglomerate gold. Our thrust has been successful workings in the past and conventional mining. However it is possible we get tarred by the same brush due to our geographical location and association with NOVO. Also the sentiment effect of recent events at GGP possibly spill over onto any miner in Oz. I think Keras' share price has more to do with people not understanding our potential or not being willing to wait, rather than a direct relation to the value of Calidus shares. If we were valued on our Calidus shares alone, our share price would be about 0.43p. Not a lot of people know that.
Date 26 Jan 2018 Keras Share Price AIM (Bid, GBP) 0.00320 Calidus Share Price (Bid, AUD) 0.0370 Keras Share Value (GBP) Based On Current CAI Market Cap. (MC) 0.00559 <<<<<<<<NOTE THIS Based On Bell Potter (BP) CAI Valuation 0.00764 Based On BP with Actual Indicated Resource (BP+) 0.00688 Keras CAI Shares Value (CAI MC, GBP) 9,633,209 <<<<<<<<COMPARE TO OUR CURRENT MC Keras Non CAI Assets Estimated Value (GBP) 3,000,000 Keras Total Value (CAI MC, GBP) 12,633,209 Keras Market Cap. (Bid, GBP) 7,237,760 Discount from valuation 42.7% Upside from current 74.5%
Bought 2 lots of 250k at .345 and .343. I suspect we will drift down as a bit of panic sets in, started albeit unfairly, by speculation of the large sells recently. It's better for me to buy in smaller chunks if the price drifts down, so as to get a better average. We still have a few million to clear though, added to by a 650k sell.
Today a sale of 1,980 pounds dropped the market cap from Friday last trade by 452,360 pounds. Now that is leverage.
Just appeared on NEX, 15:42
I have to stop now, but I cannot resist a bargain. In all my investing career, I've never seen such a situation . Yes I was somewhat irrational and impatient recently but some reflection cured that. I am taking advantage of the low prices as I suspect this will drift sideways, even down, but it will rise eventually. I hope it follows the usual pattern of AIM breakout shares.
Here's my ramp. To be valued at roughly today's price, Calidus shares would need to be .019 AUD. They are twice that.
I wouldn't worry about what's a buy and what's a sell. I bought at 0.36p, bid .35, ask .38. For some reason my buy has been delayed.
There's a positive message here for those that can see it. Better than a tweet. I like it that I bought again today at less than DR :-)
Thank goodness I sold most of my GGP. However I feel sorry for those left holding the bag. It will be a lesson learned.
beardozer, I suspect the lack of interest is people are looking for greater speculative gains elsewhere. It is not enough for them that our market cap. is less than the value of our Calidus shares. With respect to the price of gold going up, a rising tide lifts all ships. We need something to differentiate us from other miners, interesting enough that people are attracted here. A bit of news always helps and a word from DR would not go amiss. I may live to regret it but sold most of my GGP at a modest profit when I thought that its recent price rise was unsupported by rationality. Hence my buying here with some of the proceeds. I still have a small interest, just in case :-)
The 12:48 one was my buy. I wondered where it had gone!
I wrote to DR regarding the redemption of the Calidus value (look back here to early Dec, IIRC). I made the point that not everyone can hold ASX shares. I was left with the impression that he is aware and will rethink how to go about it. Like t_s I'd open another account but probably woul be exposed to CGT, wheras my Keras shares are in SIPP and ISA.
J, I agree about the complexity and I'm sure it is a factor in whay our share price is less than it should be. However, I look at the indirect ownership as a blessing too. It means that many holders demonstrate a certain level of having done their due diligence. As to why it is the way it is, may I suggest you email Dave Reeves who will be the best person to answer that query.
J, some brokers will let you buy Calidus directly. Here is why you are better buying through Keras: Keras Share Price (Bid, AUD) 0.0060 Calidus Share Price (Bid, AUD) 0.0400 Calidus Value Per Keras Share (AUD) 0.0081 Number Of Keras Shares for Calidus Share Price 6.62 Value Of Calidus Shares from Keras Shares(AUD) 0.0536 Extra Percentage of Calidus if buying through Keras 34.1%
J, I wouldn't want to speculate. However, assuming we get the next tranche of bonus shares, at the current Calidus share value my model says we are worth .76p. My expectation, not prediction, is that the share price will catch up.
What makes me happy is I pay .38p for something worth .6p There is an indicated resource in gold fields that someone has actuallydrilled There is a relationship with Novo, who have one of the world's best geologists. Calidus' value is not based on conglomerate gold although that might be a factor in our favour if it can be demonstrably shown to be economically extractable. There is a drill program in place that is several times larger than the one that contributed to Calidus' current market cap. I expect announcements as that comes to fruition. The undervaluation here means I get in cheap (just bought another large chunk about half an hour ago). The prices of Keras and Calidus are close to the recent placings, the Oz one being oversubscribed and the UK one being subscribed to by DR. There's little, if any, hype about Keras or Calidus. Does that help?
Pinecone, if a link to my Google Sheets spreadsheet would help, let me know.