RE: EOG24 Jan 2020 06:35
Glasgow to be clear, Inishkea has a 1 in 3 chance of success. That's a 2 in 3 chance of failure and is absolutely not an appraisal well of any kind. People on here talk (and have talked) about it as though already a discovery especially taken in the context of the other gas "discovery" on same block.
This will be viewed by other potential farminees in the same manner. If it were such a strong prospect it would already have gone? Please just bear that in mind when trying to work out potential values for company. That is why at this point I do not intend to purchase any more shares because my investment here has always been at the gamble / fun money end of my portfolio and nothing that has occurred to date has given me more confidence to invest further (yet!).
I think people are now realising the real risks of o&g exploration. I have always tried to temper uber enthusiasm on here simply because of that. Any reference to lol is either with regard to previous "excellent" research or MY OWN mistakes for staying here. Where I got upset was I was often shouted down and accused of posting drivel (never to receive an apology for that) when it was plain as day and night what I was posting was "direct" and simply not as "enthusiastic"
Also to be clear it isn't an issue or case of "winning" or "losing" it is simply factual and I have never intended my posts to be written in such a way that I can "win" no matter what occurs. I'll always be the first to admit I got things wrong (which I think I have by admitting this is certainly a wrong investment for me Anyway?). I am not selling simply because I hope inishkea results in farm down and "think" this will occur but would not surprised if it does not. It is not a certainty!!
I wish every investor in EOG (like myself) the best of luck here and b4 anyone asks, simply do not have a clue about valuing this company especially taking into account the "extreme vagaries" of aim!
However what you've got to look at from an investors pov, is what value can be attributed to the increased Wressle revenues, if it is not returned to share holders via dividend but is used to keep the lights on, with regard to other risky exploration work, that may or may not crystallise into real assets for the company?
We need more dev and oil operations but I dont personally know how this will be achieved on increased wtessle tevenues alone and hopefully a new CEO will be able to solve that conundrum?
It would also be nice to see the BOD dip into their own pockets and the fact that (excepting Hughie!) they have not materially to date, is telling in itself I personally think?
All above as ever imho and, dyor.
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