Member Info for Dumbly

Zippy, it would also likely indicate… no transformational deal, indeed any deal, is on the near horizon, as if a director knows about ongoing or impending M&A discussions, they are almost certainly in possession of inside information — even if no formal offer has been made or announced.

Nacho, to date the lower total tax take has been mainly due to lower oil prices not the impact of the EPL. The EPL for sure has reduced investment, but the consequential lost revenue will not be felt for years. Labour know if they introduce a successor fiscal regime now they would get less tax between now and the next General Election. Different story for jobs and supply chain maintenance, and this is where the industry needs to put the focus in their attempts to replace the EPL sooner than the currently stated date of 2030 (after… the next GE).

It will get down to the definitions of an “oil field”. As the definition is a hazy mix of geographically defined subsurface areas, NSTA blocks, existing extraction infrastructure, awarded licences, and probably more, I see plenty of opportunity to pull and stretch the definition of an “existing oil field” and shrink that of a “new oil field”. Miliband will break the spirit of the manifesto commitment but find a way not to break the letter of the commitment according to the definitions he chooses to come up with. (All not so

important for EnQuest, as B&B are clearly two

separate existing fields. According to…my definition 😆)

RR at the same meeting also added: “We are going to be reliant on oil and gas for many years to come, and I would prefer us to be using oil and gas from the UK than importing in from overseas.”

Will this North Sea Strategy publication contain the details of the successor fiscal regime or, as seems more likely, just the framework and principles,to be adopted with the details provided during the budget? Clearly, the details are needed to provide thr desired certainty to be able to invest, but can these be provided before the budget?

In any case, is good news and chimes with AB’s comment about the “very palatable” framework the government has come up with. The big question, as AB said, becomes the timing of the implementation . That AB referred to “a new type of windfall tax” good be telling, in the sense that the government may be keen to show they are in one way or another maintaining a “windfall tax “.

During an interview on Sky News's Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips programme, the host asked [Sharon Graham]: "Ed Miliband's green policies have caused you some discomfort, have you reached an accommodation with him yet?" Ms Graham replied: "No, just to be absolutely honest with you. I think that the net zero policy under Labour is an absolute disaster zone.

"What we have on the one side is that we're stopping licences in the North Sea, we're doing all sorts of different things in terms of what we are no longer doing.”

But on the other side we have not put a spade in the ground or money attached to building the industries that are going to replace these industries. Thirty thousand oil and gas jobs will be gone by 2030."

Thanks, Kamrat. AB saying a deal is a “few months” away is very specific and something he knows he will be held to. So, agreed, indeed very positive. It sounds like a framework agreement has been reached with the final details to be flexed after the budget in a couple of months. Who could this deal, or deals, be with? My likelihood ranking remains; Waldorf, Serica, Harbour.

Https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/north-sea-tax-revenues-plummet-as-windfall-levy-backfires

The failed attempt by Starmer to shift Miliband to Housing fits with the signposting on “watering down” of new licences ban. Miliband was given a sort of face-saving way out but decided to stay. Compared to Housing, there is far more prestige and… power in Energy. Now Miliband and his lawyers are torturing definitions to still find a face-saving way to expand NS production potential without breaking the relevant manifesto commitment.

Licencing and fiscal policy are of course connected but could be treated separately; a change to licencing could be announced at any time whereas a change to fiscal policy requires a fiscal event. A budget. Announcing changes to both in a co-ordinated way at the same sounds the most likely.

Going back to Labour not wanting to be seen breaking a manifesto commitment, I wonder how can they change or replace the EPL before the end of this Parliament around 2029? Separating oil and gas, or even coming up with a new way to calculate the ESIM, could give a way out. Less likely, they could cite extraordinary circumstances or similar to justify replacing the EPL earlier than 2030. Whatever, without changes to fiscal policy it is hard to see how softening the ban on new licences would change much. Over to you two, Keir and Rachel, to demonstrate who is really running the show and whether kickstarting economic growth is a top priority and trumps Miliband’s zealotry which is hobbling the country.

“This [the watering down] , along with a response to a separate consultation on the windfall tax, is expected to be published alongside November’s budget. It comes after No 10 and the Treasury, along with the GMB union, pushed Miliband to adopt a more “pragmatic” approach. “

https://www.thetimes.com/article/89ad570b-44dd-4fdf-8700-ee6d2ed78048?shareToken=f273fc3cebe4dc30c7f3920fac3b682f

Just heard Emma Pinchbeck, Chief Exec of CCC, again say (on R4) “if the UK meets its target of reaching net zero by 2050, then bills will be lower then.” That’s OK then, just 25 more years of higher bills.

Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/trump-energy-tsar-accuses-britain-of-strangling-north-sea/ar-AA1MpeyJ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=68c3ed6edb1840bf9edb4b41a8c8097c&ei=17

Meanwhile, at the other end of Europe, even Greece is looking to maximise it’s hydrocarbon extraction potential https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2025/09/10/chevron-bid-energy-hycrocarbon-crete-greece/

Https://waldorf-production.com/news/

“[Today] The High Court has granted a leapfrog certificate enabling Waldorf Production UK PLC to bypass the Court of Appeal and seek permission to appeal directly to the Supreme Court, challenging recent Court of Appeal authority on restructuring plan fairness assessments.”

I don’t know what the timings are. I imagine, given the circumstances, it will be fairly quick. Anyone?

Brent is 15% below the ESIM. If the original ESIM had been calculated using inflation-adjusted prices, Brent would be around 35% below its real 20-year average. As a windfall tax was imposed due to the brief price spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coherence would mean UK producers should now receive tax breaks or similar. Instead … we have the fiscal conditions we have. The result has been, and will continue to be, reduced investment. Intervening in the market like this has stopped the investment possible during the good times to make up for the bad times. The cure for high oil prices is… high oil prices. The NS oil and gas industry’s biggest risk, indeed the biggest risk for the NS industry in general, is now probably future oil prices declining further. EPL means very low profit potential. Brent dropping much further means next to no profit potential. Removing the EPL is no longer enough. Further investment incentives are needed. The penny must drop that drastic and real corrective interventions are needed, not just tinkering in some sneaky way to actually change little.

The JPM analyst is a gal not a guy, a she not a he, Alejandra Magana: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alejandra-m-824ba7132/

(yeah, I know, I'm being a bit of a nit picker lately 😊 😊 😉)

Pape, EPL was, for the reasons you state, created by Johnson as PM and Sunak as Chancellor, and extended by Sunak as PM and Hunt as Chancellor.

Even The Guardian seeing sense : https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2025/sep/02/oil-and-gas-imports-are-a-problem-labour-should-rethink-its-north-sea-stance

Https://www.abdn.ac.uk/news/24617/

Interesting move from Badenoch. Will Labour now finally react by doing something at the Autumn Budget to help the industry?

Could this provide a compromise way forward for Labour? https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/labour-uk-government-oil-and-gas-licences-bespoke-permits-5289202

(Tessa Khan again put in her twopence worth - it irritates me how a non UK National and likely non-dom is given so much space to spout on against the UK’s interests)

Fraid so, New. Labour will more likely be pressurised to do something to help the industry to counter Reform’s surge. This could curry favour with some in the industry and associated direct and indirect supply chain, but as the dominating and overarching issue is immigration it would not change the dial much. My hope is for a separation of oil and gas for the EPL at thr Autumn Budget. A quick, effective, and “sellable” way to encourage investment.