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What’s behind all the AO buys of a handful of shares? Algorithmic buys to lower the share price?

“The upstream assets are not themselves in insolvency proceedings, although the money generated from their sale will be used to repay creditors of the wider group.”

The conditions of the untended sale, such as whether there is a “reserve price”, are not known, and therefore not clear if there will be a successful bidder.

P.S. This article was originally published in yesterday’s FT, but is behind a paywall. https://www.ft.com/content/0dc1ca8e-4333-476a-9182-f624c3349de3

D2, what decision are you expecting? My understanding from the Sky report is that the deadline for offers for the upstream business was last Thursday, and only Serica and EnQuest were expected to possibly make an offer.

It feels like this is a moment of maximum pressure for policy change decisions. Unlikely anything will be communicated now, but if the current pressure does not result in policy change decisions, what will?

An extract from: https://uk.linkedin.com/company/ogv-energy

“Ed Miliband, UK energy and net zero secretary, is regarded as a bastion of the climate consciousness that fears reverting to oil and gas would jeopardise the rollout of renewables needed for the UK’s target of decarbonising electricity by 2030.

But some Labour politicians are pushing for more flexibility around Labour’s manifesto commitment of no new exploration licences. Easing the gradient of production decline would save jobs and boost growth, they say.

Gail Anderson, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, believes the Treasury is heading in that direction, even if Reeves refuses to heed calls to fast-track her replacement for the windfall tax to 2026 from 2030.

“There is a third way,” said Anderson. “You can get growth going in renewables without letting the North Sea wither — we need workers and companies investing to create cash flows to plough into low carbon technologies and renewables.”

Letter from Offshore Energies UK chief executive David Whitehouse sent last night to the prime minister as he prepares for a meeting with Donny Trump.

https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/championing-homegrown-energy-as-sir-keir-starmer-greets-president-trump-in-scotland

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1075469/enquest-or-serica-tipped-give-london-investors-a-blast-from-the-past-1075469.html?rel=scroll

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1075469/enquest-or-serica-tipped-give-london-investors-a-blast-from-the-past-1075469.html?rel=scroll

“Does Smith believe that Labour will ultimately be forced to rethink its policy? “They will have to rethink it because the consequences in terms of energy prices, in terms of national security, in terms of the economy and jobs, are so profound. What we should be doing is taking a public stake in what is left of the oil and gas sector and using the profits for that sector, or part of them, to invest in a new green future. “

There would be a “public stake” through the increased direct tax revenue and tax revenue and NI from the jobs created and direct and indirect ancillary services provided. And the sooner Labour has this “rethink” the better, as past a certain point before too long it will be too late.

Does Smith believe that Labour will ultimately be forced to rethink its policy? “They will have to rethink it because the consequences in terms of energy prices, in terms of national security, in terms of the economy and jobs, are so profound. What we should be doing is taking a public stake in what is left of the oil and gas sector and using the profits for that sector, or part of them, to invest in a new green future. We should be talking about North Sea Two, how we’re going to collaborate with Norway – not just decarbonising the North Sea, but what comes next. Oil and gas is not the enemy: it’s actually the gateway to whatever comes next, and we’ve got to stop seeing it as a threat.”

The GMB’s stances have often put it at odds with the Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband – who has championed net zero as the “economic opportunity of the 21st century” – but Smith hints at something of a rapprochement: “I hope and think that Ed realises that in haemorrhaging jobs through this charge to net zero, the political consequences could be very, very profound for Labour. I get a sense that he’s starting to listen and I think he also knows that a lot of these new, fashionable green companies are vehemently anti-union.

Https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2025/07/gmb-chief-gary-smith-oil-and-gas-is-not-the-enemy

Four decades on, Smith is once more haunted by the spectre of deindustrialisation. He spoke of a recent encounter with an oil and gas worker moved to tears in Middlesbrough (“big guy, really impressive guy”) who declared at a town hall meeting: “They’re doing to us what they did to Middlesbrough in the 1980s.”

For this, Smith attributes much blame to the UK’s net zero policy of which he is the fiercest Labour critic. “For too long, we were exporting jobs and importing virtue, so we closed down British industry. That was great for emissions, not great for communities. Our notional emissions have fallen but all we’ve done is export jobs and industry to China, where they burn coal to produce the goods we then import on diesel-burning barges and ships – and that includes the vast bulk of all renewables industry.”

Though he emphasises that he is not a climate change denier – “We’re not in the same place as the US New Right” – he believes that current energy policy is a gift to Farage. “We have been decarbonising through deindustrialisation and it’s counterproductive because the communities that have seen their industries closed down, they’ve been abandoned and will end up voting for the right, and exactly the way that they have in America.”

Smith fears that the political ramifications of net zero could be greatest of all in his native Scotland – he lives in Paisley – where Labour aims to prevent the SNP winning a fifth term next May. “On the current policies, I don’t believe that Labour can win in Scotland,” he warned of the government’s decision to ban new North Sea oil and gas licences. “People don’t get that energy is an emotional issue in Scotland. We went hundreds of miles out in this inhospitable sea and built this incredible, groundbreaking energy infrastructure.

“If you’re on the west coast of Scotland, most people of a certain age have a drop of oil from Sullom Voe because there are so many families who were involved in building that project when they landed the oil in Shetland. This was an emotional story about Scotland. It’s important to its sense of self and the economy, and I don’t think people have really got that.”

While Starmer is expected to grant permission to the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea – which are exempt as existing licences – he has consistently reaffirmed the ban on new ones. “That is absolutely our position,” he recently declared (a stance that Trump publicly derided ahead of his planned meeting with Starmer in Aberdeen).

This comes across as a mealy mouthed. It gives the incorrect impression that government policy is not driving the decline of the sector. It also does not confirm the importance of the industry and the government’s support. I have not seen a reply from Shanks to Borthwick.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/scottish-politics/6806992/labour-energy-minister-backtracks-north-sea-claims/

“The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has recently produced their new Future Energy Scenarios report (FES 2025).

It reads like the authors have been on an ayahuasca trip and produced this report as a phantasmagoria of hallucinogenic dreams. Their plans are not costed, they want to force consumers to flex demand and rely on uneconomic and unproven technologies.“

https://open.substack.com/pub/davidturver/p/fes-phantasmagoria-future-energy-scenarios-2025?r=gdn8q&utm_medium=ios

Not sure how 100% UK exposure now can be considered a strength, Sek, but I am with you that the merger with EnQuest was a lost opportunity. That said, the merger announcement always felt forced, premature, and the unexpected market tumult, plus UK regulatory policy uncertainty and other things, meant pulling the deal was the wise move. It would not surprise me if a similar (reverse-takeover) merger with EnQuest does not re-appear later this year or early next. If fair-value acceptable to both sets of shareholders can be found there are so many positives for both companies. (Such a “friendly”

merger, could only happen if both BoDs agreed.) To note, the analyst James Hosie, previously at Barclays and now at Shore Capital and who knows both companies very well, this last week issued a target price for EnQuest of 29p (13 now). And this was calculated before Wednesday’s RNS announcing EnQuest’s entry into a further S-E Asia country, Brunei, on top of Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Kraken, where can I find Hosie’s analysis?

Krak, exactly. Hosie is competent and knows the company well. So, what's driving his target? (I assume it is his target as he is the O&G analyst at Shore.) I would be more comfortable if I saw confirmation of this target price directly from Shore and, ideally, with a commentary. I found this https://www.stockomendation.com/tips/15-jul-25-shore-capital-buy-enq-enquest . Auson, do you have anything else regarding the source of this target price?

Sek, as MC said in his recent excellent interview, Serica would like an overseas limb. Discussing the company’s 100% UK concentration was the only time in the interview he came across as mildly flustered, and it does look like a weakness, a potential Achilles’ heal. (The merger with EnQuest offered a platform to have that limb and with excellent prospects to further grow it fairly quickly.)

Here: https://www.shorecapmarkets.co.uk/equities-research-portal/#/portal/shore-capital

Exactly, Kraken.

If you go here and select the Oil and Gas sector filter nothing comes up for EnQuest. Maybe will be there later.

Auson, good find. Do you have a link to the rating note.

Interesting. The analyst at Shore Capital covering Oil and Gas is… James Hosie, previously Director Oil and Gas equity research at Barclays Capital. He knows EnQuest well.