Member Info for DugWalker

Whilst quick progress towards an estimated £4.4 million annual profit would be great, the other major benefit of the BUPA deal is that it will further validate the test and in doing so it will be a catalyst to the much larger UK market (~150,000 annual Cancer cases 'eligible' for immunotherapy). NHS reimbursement rate will no doubt be negotiable but remember CiRT will save the NHS way more than it costs! A course of immunotherapy for 1 patient is reported to cost more than £80,000.

Thought it would be interesting to try to get a feel for the potential of the deal with BUPA in the UK.

According to Google BUPA has just over 2 million UK customers, which equates to circa 3% of the UK population.

Recent data indicates that more than 40% of cancers are eligible for immunotherapy.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6503493/

In the UK there are some 375,000 new cancer cases per year.

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics-for-the-uk

In principle BUPA should insure 3% of those which is roughly 11 000 patients. If 40% of these are eligible for immunotherapy we would have 4400 patients per year that could benefit from a CiRT test! If I then assume the deal with BUPA gives them an early adopter discount that reduces our profit per test by 50% then the potential from the BUPA deal would be approximately £1000 x 4400 or £4.4 million per annum.

It is very early days for the BUPA partnership but it is a direct route to market and should grow towards its ultimate potential quite quickly. Remember it is based on just the 3% of the UK population that are existing BUPA customers.

Whilst our CSO is presenting at the Precision Medicine World Conference, our CDO Ewan Hunter is simultaneously presenting at the 2nd Annual Spatial Biology for Immuno-Oncology Summit in San Diego, where the company is attending as an Expertise Partner. He is discussing the linkage between the Tumor Micro Environment and blood profiling by 3D genomics. The conference is being attended by potential customers (hospitals) and potential partners (including big pharma).

Good to see an SME like our company getting so much attention for its input to a dynamic emerging,

and potentially huge, market!

Hi Krull ,

It's the explicit mention of updates on CiRT and PSE that catches my eye.

Wonder if yellowstone advisory know something?

https://twitter.com/YstoneAdvisory/status/1744756350301671937?t=D7O26L5W8_XTIh8wPTPtLw&s=19

Hi Dibs,

Year end for OBD is end Sept. This is coincident with the launch of the PSE test and before the availability of a PSE reimbursement code in the US.

It is also only a month or two after the apparent acceleration in CiRT sales which started from a pretty low base level. Because of this my expectations for the formal year end results are low. We may have sold a few hundred CiRT tests in that timeline but I expect the profits from those may just about offset the negative impacts of inflation during the year. I'm expecting losses to little changed or probably a bit higher on a year on year basis.

The key takeaway next Wednesday will be the insights from the promised sales updates to be provided in the follow-up webinar on Wednesday afternoon. If CiRT sales have doubled ( to ~200 per month) since the last update they will be growing at an average rate of about 12.5% per month. If that was maintained we would hit 400 to 500 per month by the end of this fiscal year (Sept '24) and we will be well on our way to profitability. Of course we also have PSE now and an early indication of how sales are taking off will add to the interest. I'll be listening carefully for any hint that we are potential participants in the Transform trial for a national screening programme for prostate cancer. Not only do I think we would be prime canidates to become the chosen technology, but we should be reimbursed for tests done as part of that trial and that could be a nice boost to revenues.

It's more a case of looking forward to the year ahead rather than expectations of the results of the year gone by.

Not quite GMS. By stating Nov '22 I was trying to focus on the last year (more or less). You are however right to make the point about the placing (Oct '22) and if I extend the timeline back to then he would indeed have increased his shareholding as you indicate.

Fact is the value of his shareholding has increased substantially and if he thought he could invest it better elsewhere I imagine he'd have materially reduced his holding to raise funds. He hasn't which suggests he sees a lot of value to be gained from OBD.

Inevitably as the SP climbs, not clubs. Clubbing should be reserved for authors of some of the wilder factually incorrect posts on the share register.

Inevitably as the SP clubs we have the re-emergence of the Vulpes selling myth.

It's easy to check.

https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/director-dealings/OBD

From Nov 22 through his last trade towards the end of last year Diggle bought just short of 1 million shares @ approx 15p and sold just over 1 million at approx 38 p.

He continues to own about 13% of the company and whilst the number of shares he holds is down by a tiny fraction of his total holding, his investment in the company is worth more than double what it was 12 months ago.

Hardly a vote of no confidence in the company as some would like us (for some strange reason) to believe.

The growth potential is massive. Consider just the possibility that PSE becomes the basis of a nationwide prostate screening programme in the UK.

15.5 million over 60's in the UK. Let's say 40% male. That'd give roughly 6 million men. If testing frequency for them was every 3 years you would be looking at 2 million PSE tests per year in the UK alone. Even if at that scale the profit per test dropped to say £50 from the current £200, annual profit potential would be £100 million per year. That's before considering the much larger European. Asian and American markets.

The numbers are mind boglingly big so even partial success should see the mcap rocket in the next few years. Brokers already suggesting SP should be >£2 by year end.

A chunk.of that impact on mcap will co.e with the announcement that the PSE test is included in the national screening trial. That should come soon ('spring 2024' ). With PSE being more accurate and cheaper than the alternatives it has to be the preffered candidate.

Good to see our Chief Scientific Officer spreading the word at the forthcoming Precision Medicine World Conference. Great potential to boost sales and attract fresh investors.

https://www.pmwcintl.com/speaker/alexandre-akoulitchev-326_oxford-biodynamics_2024sv/

Yes NU. January is my recollection.

So

-reimbursement codes go live for PSE in the US.

-updates on CiRT and PSE sales in next week's webinar.

-confirmation of increased testing capacity in the UK and US.

-announcement of OBD's PSE test being included in the UK prostate screening trial.

-validation of another blood test.

All possible or already confirmed during 1st Q 2024.

Just a matter of time really.

For now I'd prefer another partnership with an insurer, but this time for PSE testing.

No liquidity again today. Been gradually adding small amounts whilst the SP still in the 20's. Just can't see that lasting long!

My sense is it's just a matter of time with CiRT Nick. We already have reimbursement codes for the US insurers and I suspect the speed with which they were granted will, in part, reflect on the potential cost savings.

The last we heard we were at 90 sales a month and indications were that we could have been seeing the early stages of exponential growth. Taking a more modest view if we use a best fit linear extrapolation we should hopefully hear next week that we have already hit 200-250 sales per month.

I expect the coming year to be transformational. Once word gets out and case numbers grow from these early figures I'd expect the US insurers to start insisting their oncologists administer a CiRT test before they will pay for immunotherapy ( The BUPA model). Since we have brought in a Senior VP to oversee PSE commercialisation I'd like to think we will see benefit from that in the near future too. I also expect to hear that we will be a candidate in the forthcoming prostate screening trial in the UK. With an announcement sometime in Spring this year due. The numbers for PSE will be modest so soon after launch but it is primed and ready.

I'm looking forward to next week's zoom presentation. An exciting year ahead.

Hi NickE,

From what I have read the potential for CiRT is much much bigger than 400 per annum. Indeed I won't be hugely surprised if we are not already hitting several hundred per month. Here's why I think this:

The link I posted earlier about the market for immunotherapy estimates the market will have quadrupled in the 10 years ending in 2032. The market is huge. The link also lists cancers that immunotherapy is already used for. These include lung, colorectal, breast, prostate, melanoma, ovarian and pancreatic. The incidences of these cancers per annum in the USA alone can be googled and it is just over 1 million new cases per year in total. Of those 40% are likely to be considered for immunotherapy. This is confirmed in this medical paper;

Https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6503493/

So we are looking at 400,000 potential immunotherapy patients per annum that would benefit from a CiRT test to assess their likely response to a hugely expensive treatment option (typically more than $100,000 per patient). Insurers will follow the example of BUPA and CiRT will allow their oncologists to be selective as to which patients get immunotherapy. If we were to get just 1% of the available market we would be looking at 4000 CiRT tests per annum in due course. This is one reason why I think we could easily become a takeover target for big pharma.

@5085.

The science is very impressive, but the icing on the cake for shareholders is the market growth with CAGR of 15% foreseen.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cancer-immunotherapy-market-size-reach-122000362.html#:~:text=According%20to%20DataHorizzon%20Research%2C%20The,natural%20ability%20to%20fight%20cancer.

A transition from loss making to profitability during this calendar year is not an unrealistic goal. The potential here is massive and we may well become a takeover target for one of the bignpharma companies we are already partnered with.

@NickE

Hi Nick. I expect he will be involved with both PSE and CiRT but reports at the time say he was specifically brought in to oversee PSE commercialisation.

Https://thebusinessmagazine.co.uk/recruitment-careers-hr/oxford-biodynamics-strengthens-with-senior-appointment/