Member Info for DugWalker

Not sure what you expect from shareholders given the ineptitude and misinformation.

I raised the questions about FDA looking to overhaul the regulations on the use of LDT's in the US markets. My understanding is that by bringing these tests under the oversight of the FDA they will demand more rigorous and extensive testing regimes ahead of commercialisation. This is just one reason why I thought participation in the UK screening trial would be a must do. If they don't secure an involvement now, when it was in their gift to submit an application ahead of the deadline, questions need to be asked about management foresight and competence. Burrows said it himself yesterday, a £42 million funded trial for a national prostate screening programme and with a ground breaking test that promises to be the best, we may find ourselves excluded! Unbelievable.

Another warning signal to me was the reluctance to set sales targets for CiRT or PSE. Without such targets how are they setting personal key performance indicators? We ought to know how they are measuring up against their performance metrics otherwise how do we know their bonuses are justified?

Hi GMS

I fear the news on PSE is completely overshadowed by the failure to see any growth of CiRT. As we have discussed previously, had they reported something in excess of 200 CiRT sales per month we would have been on a course that promised profitability this year. To get close to that we need to be hitting 5000 PSE tests per month. I just can't see that happening quickly enough to avoid another placing.

Last night I took a look back at some of the company posts following the workshops on CiRT that it has held in the US. Previously I had not been too concerned by OBD's use of phrases like 'robust discussions' or 'candid feedback' but now I'm beginning to wonder if there is something we are missing, something the oncologists don't like that has stalled any progress on sales. Perhaps there is a widespread reluctance to rely on an LDT to determine treatment options for something as serious as cancer when the evidence is still based on a very small sample size. Yesterday's figures certainly suggest I was overly optimistic to be looking for 200+ Cirt sales in Dec.

I plan to ask investor relations why there has been a lack of transparency in their dealings with shareholders. For example why did Burrows talk about exponential growth of CiRT sales through June/July, only to say yesterday they knew it was a spike? Why was there no RNS about Ryan Mathis's appointment when they were so keen to suggest it would be transformative for CiRT sales and hence was price sensitive information? Why did they not submit a proposal to the Transform Prostate project prior to the submission for deadlines, so that we now find ourselves dependent on a government lobbyist to try to ensure involvement?

As for the partnership.prospects why were we not exploring those options rather than awaiting unsolicited approaches from 3rd parties? I can't imagine a big company rushing to be charitable in its dealings with a company that cannot afford to maintain its patent rights if things continue as they are.

I can but hope yesterday marks an end to management obfuscation and they begin to demonstrate a capability to sell products.

I was dissapointed, and thought it telling, that they did not invite any 'live' questions. I wanted to ask how the intended to guage the success of the BUPA partnership in the coming year (how many sales). I completely agree the insurers have a vested interest in pushing their medics to use the tests. I need to re-listen to the webinar, but I think when discussing BUPA he said something implying OBD would be holding seminars for the BUPA oncologists which sounds a bit like the US model of P2P sales again.

gms it was completely ambiguous and you acknowledged as much this morning. how hard would it have been to explicitly give the actual numbers sold in the period oct through today. **** poor rns.

Dibs,

You were equally adamant and since interpretation of a hopelessly ambiguous RNS was a binary choice, you got lucky and came down on the right side of the division. I ain't apologising because I didn't write the RNS nor am I in any way responsible for today's drop.in the S.P. I find it rather infantile that you think I should.

I plan to write to investor relations and one of the questions will relate to the stagnation of the number of doctors in the P2P sales group. If that was going to plan I'd have expected numbers in that group to have at least doubled since July.

I wrote to them earlier this year about OBD's participation in Transform Prostate and got fobbed off as they said information related to that would need to be released by an RNS. I wrote to them.because it seemed to be a god sent opportunity to validate the test in a randomised trial conducted at scale. It always struck me that this would be a more powerful catalyst for commercialisation than the sales efforts of a few dozen unpaid medical recruits operating, presumably, on a part time basis.

Dibs,

No intention of getting into an infantile mud slinging bout. I will simply say I have been otherwise occupied most.of today and only just managed to catch the webinar.

He tacitly acknowledged that there was confusion and gave the impression that they had received a number of questions about the 770 CiRT tests.

The RNS was terribly structured and it now transpires that talking about a total of 770 tests in a section dedicated to the post reporting period was hopelessly misleading. I don't know why you think my interpretation was any less valid than anyone else's at the time I made my remarks.

If it makes you feel vindicated to single me out for comment fill your boots. I'm sure it will help compensate you for any loss you made today.

Someone tell John Burrows. "By Royal Appointment" would soon dispel any negativity from today.

@GMS

Why would they report total sales since June '23 in a section updating progress since the end of the financial year? That makes absolutely no sense.

Right at the beginning of the RNS they give a figure of 516 for the financial year. Given that the update of 90 came in June/July and since numbers prior to that were in the low 10's per month , they must have maintained or exceeded 90 for the few months up to end Sept to reach that 516 figure. Co tinued growth at a rate of circa 20% per month gets you to where we are now e.g. 770 sold since Oct.

@GMS

'To date' is just another way of saying 'so far'. So my interpretation is 770 'so far' in the post year end period.

If I'm correct would that not exceed your expectations as stated only recently? Seem to remember you suggesting I was being too optimistic projecting a monthly figure of 200-250 by now.

The 770 sales figure is given in the section entitled Post Year End Highlights. There is no doubt in my mind that it is the total since October 1st last. Might be a more than a few regretting selling come 4:00 p.m. today

@GMS. Sales have NOT been stagnant. They have sold 770 CiRT tests since the end of last financial year (Oct 31). On a monthly basis sales have grown by at least 20% per month since July last year and are probably sitting somewhere around 300 a month right now!

Managed to grab a top up.

Can't.get an online quote to buy.

The company could easily cover ongoing costs by selling one of its pipeline tests to a third party. Indeed discussions are underway to licence tests already AND the growth of CiRT sales will transform the company to profit making this year.

Correct wombat.

I have simply assumed a 20% per month linear growth rate as we don't yet have enough data to do a curve fit. The reality is growth looks to be exponential which makes my forward projection on profitability very conservative.

Also worth remembering we had the December holiday season in that period so realistically that 770 has come in a bit less than 3 months!

I'll be buying more.

The potential of a licencing agreement with a big pharma organisation knocks it out the park!

If that brings a big pharma sales team to the table I'd be looking to have the push both CiRT and PSE tests on our behalf and against monetised performance guarantees. Potentially huge!

What is dissapointing about a sales growth rate that will bring about an annual profit this coming financial year?

If we maintain this growth rate (it will get hiĝher) then we hit about 1100 tests a month of £2 million MONTHLY profits by end FY 2024.

So in the 3.5 months since end of the financial year we have sold 770 CiRT tests which is more than in 2022 & 2023 combined. It equates to an average of 220 per month equivalent to a monthly growth rate of 20% since we were told we had reached 90 a month back in July.

If that growth rate is maintained (more likely it will be surpassed) we get above 400 tests a month by end April this year.

If the reimbursement rate is still £2000 per month we will bring in enough.money to become profit making this year.

Fantastic news!

It's all about the update on CiRT and to a lesser extent PSE sales.

Annual results will not be much different from last year and losses may even be a little higher due to inflationary pressures through 2023. That doesn't matter, especially if CiRT sales are greater than 200 per month as continued growth at that rate puts OBD on a path to profitability in 2024.