RE: Aerial5 Sep 2020 13:44
Enjoyed the read about demand from the interior of Africa. EDL has its 5,000 tpm washed coal anchor tenancy at a margin that sustains the company in my view. This made possible because ILTL/MarTeck are sister companies and the contract mining, $1m loan and sales deal are designed to dovetail.
Undoubtedly an additional 7,500 tpm will get signed up so Rukwa hits 12,500 tpm capacity with the help of MarTeck and the regional logistics capability of ILTL.
But, this is only a drop in the ocean. Tanzania produces 700,000 tpm coal and compares to Indonesia's 550,000,000 tpa as the world's largest exporter of thermal coal.
So Rukwa need only capture a very small share of even Tanzanian supply share going west to be transformational to EDL.
Zambia has the at least 10 years struggled with power and having worked assisting KCM, which has copper smelters and deep underground dewatering pumping requirements, and tried assisting private equity firms build new power stations, importing power seems the only solution.
It sounds obvious - not enough power so let's build a power station and makes lots of money. But, the grid in Zambia is state owned and the state is broke. Therefore, the Power Purchase Agreement is only as good as the state's finances and political mood. Lenders will finance the power plant with the PPA so long as the PPA risk is transferred via some form of Structured Credit & Political Risks Insurance. The insurance market looks at the PPA, who owns the grid and looks at the Zambian government and says no thank you. If the grid fails to pay for the power or honour the terms, its effectively a political dispute.
Long and short, there could be huge plans ahead. Not worried about share price. Took a small position and will try to build especially if price stays put.