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Can we hold that license long enough legitimately and wait for the 1/10 shot that Shell have to succeed.
I am going with 18 moths or corporate footprint, a year of 3D acquisition, 6 months of processing, then interpretation, then well planning and wells, then discovery?
How long do you reckon till such a happy eventuality, and what does it cost us to hold it?
what might such an arrangement look like for the investor, and I don't mean investors like Koot(AHTPP) and Potter in the CEG/BPC golden parachute golden handshake duet, I mean for the PI's?
Well, a few little differences...if I may.
1. Shell understands the regional geology, (we don't, or perhaps we do, but for these purposes it really doesn't matter!)
2. Shell have 200MMUSD to burn.(we don't)
3. Shell's gambit is one of dozens , and they do not face gamblers ruin in the event of failure. (We do.)
4. Shell do not have the problem many of us have raising money on the markets for microcaps with unfunded greenfield blocks is becoming increasingly difficult.
5. Shell, significantly, are not attached at the hip to an insignificant wanna-be minnow bleating incessantly in their ear demanding and expecting both equity and a carry, a board seat, and cash no doubt!
6. For shell, there is a lot of good acreage around in the deepwater which comes without the hair that the likes of our ancestory leave in their wake, as they have their way with small time investors.(e.g. LGO, CERP, BHP,CEG)
Other than that, I think our acquisition in Uruguay is genius!
Druid says, it's the PITS.(Pie in the sky)
Protect your starfish people, DYOR and AIMHO.
in4cedros,
On a point of technical order....Leo Koot, (all hail the purple prince), said emphatically, and after logging and apparently testing, that CERP has found in S1 "exactly what it had set out to look for"..In my opinion, this was a lie, not hinting at a 50:50 poke at a wildcat as you intimate was the case at the time....no sir!!
There was scant effort at the time , and even less evidence in the S2 ramp.
Furthermore, seriously, what type of oilco offers the blooming dirty drillers such a huge chunk when they have purportedly JUST MADE A DISCOVERY. It does not happen this way in the real adult oilfield, but only an inexperienced clueless git would use such a line to attract unsuspecting PI's who wouldn't know a duster from a muster.
and while we are at it, irenekrap won the S1 sweepstakes if you take oil procuded to surface over almost any length of time.....bearing in mind that oil actually flows to the surface on the beach a few 10's of meters away...and every formation is pretty much saturated with it..S1 should be renamed as another Bonasse well, why wasn't it?? Technical inputs matter, details matter..
I know it doesn't matter to in4cedross, but when you sound credible, you can mislead people easily. Not nice behavior one would think.
At the risk of repetition,
We need a workable policy around what we have, whatever it is.
An acknowledgement and a strategy.
The Uruguay tangent of "attracting a major" neither reflects our reality, nor suggests a boot-strapping way out of this mess, nor any strategy forward on the basis of whatever technical skills we may have operationally.
No, it simply says, send us money because a major is sniffing around our door which means we have at least a billion barrels of oil in place in the deep-water, please send cash we promise to make you rich, buy low sell high.
In the past, I named these sorts of Pollyanna-ish flirtations the PITS, because they were Pie In The Sky, and remain so.
(As actual examples I cite only GY677, Saffron, the SWP, P1, WNZ, Saffron again...all hail Potter and the Purple plugged in Prince)
We appear intellectually bankrupt, unless raising funds on spurious and unlikely fantasies is our in-house skill set?
As Starfish would say, AIMHO and DYOR of course.
Druid says, Find another ball to bounce please...they are out there is you actually worked in the oil-patch, and Trinidad is all we have, so that's where we need to make out stand. Did we evaluate the bid round? Are we in the loop to receive Heritage's inevitable divestitures? Can we trim the LUDICROUS executive overhead? Can we change the ethos of CEG and it's predecessors?
No,
But a major is farming in to Uruguay deepwater that no one wanted...
It's true,
I heard it from a burning bush,
Just like Starchild did and Willec prophesied!
I love the way that the kids publish so dutifully to obfuscate and drown any adult opinions....
I said "have at it chaps", and they did!
It is all going swimmingly at CEG!
Take a break indeed rampers, what good boys you are!
Go Uruguay (muffled giggle) !
With respect In4Cedross,
I will not expand too much here here, as I have written on it in detail in the past on this forum.
BUT
Unless there are exceptional circumstances, like a world-class discovery actually realized, no Major or even Independent will elect to partner with a start-up, microcap or minnow at the exploration stage, NOT EVEN IF they had a past track record of success, which we do NOT!
In no universe do they surrender meaningful carried equity, operatorship or even a board position in an exploration program at inception to a company like ours here, it just doesn't happen....Details are in my posted history, I can't be bothered to redraft the logic right now.
The sad truth is, this 'Major Partner' tale is intended to float an idea that will unlikely be realized in order to attract PI's who may not be so aware of the industry, and so are trying to buy low sell high ...right?...because Hey, if Shell or Exxon partner with us, we are on the gravy train!!
It worked well for BPC execs in the Bahamas, and I suspect the hope is that it will work here.
so have at it chaps...I just do not think it ethical to create this most unlikely expectation among honest investors.
Druid says, it rarely happens, unless there is a real asset to procure...IMHO this is a 'major ramp', as real as SWP, Saffron, P1 or WNZ.
As a shareholder, I would rather we got real with what we have and try to build a legit company on the little base we have, not opt for a rinse and repeat of the 3 TED's, CERP, CERL, BPC, LGO and CEG....we are more lightweight now than our predecessors (as is our CEO frankly, as it seemed at least that Lenigas, Ritson, Kootsie, and Potter could impersonate a real oilfield CEO, however insincerely!)
This is not the frank honest dialogue nor an adult strategy required at this juncture.
All IMHO.
Ah,
All this bloated bluster and partnering with a major makes us nostalgic for the old tag team of Rev. Starfish and the Pillick deacon whom the faithful despair are departed!
Fear Not Brethren, for they have they been resurrected in a more subtle and nuanced ecclesiastic style for your (read their) eternal financial success,
Remember?
Lo and behold, it will be just like the last time they bounced this same ball, I mean, baptized this same stall...still peddling the same schtick albeit with some clever geographical diversity..
Ho Hum, the more things change..
I see the ramparoo is in full swing in a multi-pronged stout effort as usual!
There must be something afoot! Will it be another onshore or nearshore block in Trinidad's bid rounds, or will it be the Uruguay Boogaloo in a repeat of Bahamas that did so well for our executive?
Either way, it is the pits, (Pie in the sky).
Have at it Rampers!
Farming Banannas in the Bahamas is possible , but revenue from uruguay is a fantasy.
What would the market cap be at 5p Willec, and how would it be supported?
Willec and BurrenBoy, the two new choir boys in the newest new testament.,
and they are not alone..
Willec, back on the payroll after his last whinge and subsequent flogging!
Where Willec, will the production increase come from, the Bonnasse 14, sorry, I mean Saffron 1?
GY 677 in Goudron and it's 2500bopd for 8 months(?), oops, sorry, sensitive topic I know...
Perhaps Weg Na Zee in Suriname, which is one of the nicest narrow coastal swamps to lose money??
Has anyone seen a well log from P#1 BTW?
Willec, are you lonely without your ticklish Starfish, or can you not resist the urge to bleat insignificantly?
in4Cedross,
Well I'm glad you're not on my risk evaluation team!
One has to look at the track, the going, and the horse, ..and then ask yourself on historical 'track record basis', what the odds might be, and not EVERY horse has the same evenly weighted binary outcome in every race!.....like Bertrand Russel who said that that there may well be a tea-pot in orbit around Jupiter, and he could neither prove nor disprove it, but that does NOT mean the odds of there being a teapot in orbit were on all fours with there not being one!
Based on numerous past belligerent myopic and trumped up geo-fantasy and performances by this cabal, this horse 'don't look so good' if you know the old joke?! (So much so in fact, it may be blind!)
It is not a 50:50 risk for exploration in greenfield acreage, even the hot-shots give themselves 1 in 10....that is why when you masquerade as a big time oil company, you face GAMBLERS RUIN, as TDE, TED, LGO, CERP, CERL, BPC, and now CEG have done over and over.
So statistically you need roughly 10 exploration projects, all technically driven and well funded, in order to beat the statistical odds and have ONE success which funds it all ultimately...
CEG, in neither their past nor current lightweight corporate incarnations, is neither well funded nor technically driven, and DO NOT HAVE 10 PLAYS TO OFFSET THE NATURAL EXPLORATION RISKS AND AVOID GAMBLERS RUIN.
(I refer you to volume 1 of the AAPG exploration handbook, which instructs the explorer to be optimistic but avoid the statistical trap of being a one-trick pony)
De Ja Vu chaps, can they re-bounce this ball....NO!
Game Over! (and I am a share-holder, 99% down)
Druid says, if you're gonna run with the big dogs, you had better be a big dog or it's Perseverance #1 EVERY TIME!!