Member Info for DrPatience

R00st3r, H2 FY2023 ended 31 August, so I think you are right, it will take a few months before we hear something on the financial results. However, the CEO needs to update the market in more broad, strategic and trading terms, soon!! Unless they just want the sp to drift to NIL!! Maybe it's a strategy, although I cannot see any benefit of it. I would like to think the new team is working hard in the background, coming up with a plan to rebuild confidence in the company. The IP is solid (fact) plus there is plenty of capacity to do samples (fact), so this is merely a commercial exploitation question = sales!

Eviking/all

In the end, it's probably irrelevant how things are categorised by the brokers (divs vs capital), as it is matter between the individual and HMRC.

"In Alexander Beard v HMRC [2022] TC08460, the First Tier Tribunal (FTT) found that distributions of share premium by a listed PLC incorporated in Jersey were subject to UK income tax as dividends and not capital gains tax."

This has been appealed, so it can go either way.

I personally feel it is not a foregone conclusion, as the distributions are not subject to Swiss withholding taxes as otherwise would be the case for dividends. The initial ruling only talked about UK and Jersey, not considering this extra layer.

I think one can - in good faith - allocate as capital gains.

Not sure what a tax advisor would say, but in the worst case HMRC would ask for more taxes, but it's rather unlikely they would even find out and if they do, I think they would accept it's done in good faith.

Cookoo, all the best, let's leave it at that and take stock in a year's time!

Deep inside you are also hoping for this to come through. Surely.

If not, I will yield and accept my judgement was wrong! Note: I am not saying this cannot fail, but if so, it will in my view be because of business fundamentals, not semi-fraudulent activity by the DELT team and large shareholders. For now, it is my view is that we have the strongest evidence ever of Selene and Pensacola being 2 very worthwhile assets. I have a lot of respect for Shell's exploration team. They would not pursue this without a reasonable chance of success. Believing in a certain level of probably of success is not having rose tinted glasses - it's a judgement we all do.

Cookoo,

We got it: you are sitting on big % losses, you don't want to sell even if you think the sp will fall (it may do without positive news, on that we agree); you think Delt execs and big shareholders are cheating money from small shareholders. We got it! We got it!

Unless you have something new to add, no one is interested. Call us what you want. We are serious investors and know full well that this venture could fail, but could equally, and more likely, succeed. Risk/reward is subjective, so let's just agree to disagree.

All the best and good bye.

PL, well the more recent broker notes have done their calculations and come up with a market cap of around £220+ million+

That is "risked" and mainly based on Selene and Pensacola (and DELT's economic interests reduced to fund our share of the drills). Unrisked is a lot higher. Of course we can all argue until the cows come home what the risk factor should be, but there is clearly huge gap between current price x number of shares vs these valuations.

In reality we need news to move forward and have a price where large sums can change hands without creating huge volatlity in the share price. Also, the pool of shares being traded is rather small, so my interpretation is that most shareholders are actually just sitting tight and will wait until we have real news about monetisation, the drills in 2024 etc. If the news are bad (e.g. dry wells), then it will obviously end up much lower, but current risk/reward level suits me. We are really in the strongest position we have ever been in (based on good data so far). Until we have real news, the calculated market cap may go lower. It's pretty random until then.

I can't be bothered to un filter and read the first contribution. Let me guess, probably now saying that oil is not from plant based materials compressed over millions of years, but an abundant source created while the earth was formed. Another "wonderful" conspiracy theory, where we have all been cheated and tricked into thinking oil is not available forever or made to pay excess money for something which should be nearly free. Even if that was true, there is no denying that we are producing too much CO2, although the counter argument from the conspiracy clowns would be that CO2 is good for plants etc, so the more the better...

Mad as a hatter!! Probably drank leaded petrol because it's good for you! Cheers!

Non Deltic information is regularly being posted to this thread, including: usawatchdog.com

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-excess-mortality-idUSL2N2VS1BI

https://www.factcheck.org/2023/04/scicheck-no-evidence-excess-deaths-linked-to-vaccines-contrary-to-claims-online/

I urge everybody to be aware of links to this website and similar websites to be extremely careful not to fall for carefully crafted, often well written, but highly manipulated stories. Do your own research and use fact checkers. I have the specific poster on filter, so this may seem out of context.

I am doing it for new participants.

Non Deltic information is regularly being posted to this thread, including:

"the exposé (formerly known as the daily exposé)[3] is a british conspiracy and fake news website created in 2020 by jonathan allen-walker.[1][2] it is known for publishing covid-19 and anti-vaccine misinformation.[7]"

from:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/the_expos%c3%a9

There can only be one reason for posting such links: manipulation

I urge everybody to be aware of links to this website and similar websites to be extremely careful not to fall for carefully crafted, often well written, but highly manipulated stories. Do your own research and use fact checkers. I have the specific poster on filter, so this may seem out of context.

Non Deltic information is regularly being posted to this thread, including: 

"the exposé (formerly known as the daily exposé)[3] is a british conspiracy and fake news website created in 2020 by jonathan allen-walker.[1][2] it is known for publishing covid-19 and anti-vaccine misinformation.[7]" 

from: 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/the_expos%c3%a9 

There can only be one reason for posting such links: manipulation

I urge everybody to be aware of links to this website and similar websites to be extremely careful not to fall for carefully crafted, often well written, but highly manipulated stories. Do your own research and use fact checkers. I have the specific poster on filter, so this may seem out of context.

Thanks SGD27, will watch with interest.

Just applying the RNS figures: cash+listed shares worth around 130p per share. Assume fire sale of unlisted shares at 50% of value (pretty conservative) then cash + listed shares + 50% of unlisted sharees => 156p per share.

They should just get on with it then. Easy trading opp for small investors with cash due to price misalignment. Very nice. Main risk is them not throwing the towel in the ring. Hopefully they do, they had their chance and failed. Simple.

"The metals and mining sector will be foundational in the effort to limit climate change. In effect, the energy transition is a commodities transition—metals and minerals are critical inputs for low-carbon technologies such as wind turbines and electric vehicles (EVs). Their importance is reflected in the rapid growth of commodity trading pools, which nearly doubled year over year, reaching close to $100 billion in 2022 (Exhibit 1).1 Further, metals and minerals are poised to make up an increasing share of the value pool in the coming years."

From:

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-trading-opportunity-that-could-create-resilience-in-materials?stcr=10254FB9DDB345308EA338901108A6F7&cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hlkid=2d820e7d28d04e07a2a13081dc9babf1&hctky=1598444&hdpid=5790ba0e-5d58-46e9-ba39-2bbe9050a02b#/

A long read, but worth reading for those who have time and interest!

Mark, I agree,

I feel Saudi wants the oil in the $90-100 range. If that succeeds for a prolonged time, then BP will make lots of cash, consistenly, going forward. Above that would be bad for demand and inflation. There is every possibility there is another leg to the price, but as you say, no one can predict the future! I am thinking 6.00+, but again, who knows. May need to wait, see and judge the next results.

Larry, thanks!

I think Saudi will keep oil price in the $90-100 range, suits their internal needs without creating too much problems elsewhere.

So thank you Saudi - Shell and BP will make lots of cash if we can stay in that range going forward! The longer the better and doesn't trigger new waves of inflation.

Eviking: thanks all round!

Re "You can always buy more...": sadly out of cash and totally overweight in Glen, BP and Shell. No complaints, as I invested early on during Covid.

Nothing wrong with being a 10% guy! Maybe I should learn to take profit earlier/ongoing!! :-)

@ thereducer, I agree and pretty much in the same boat as you. I added a lot during Covid, otherwise I would have been sitting on big paper losses.

I am still very hopeful it will end up beyond 200p! Missed the boat last time. It ought to be there agin based on many metrics, but I appreciate there are many other factors at play.

Not even winter yet!

Underlying metals demand is clearly there - energy transition etc will keep this going for a while

USD much too strong I feel. Once it comes down, commodity prices will go up, right?

Interest rates will eventually fall, making yields on equities more attractive again.

General volatility in the various commodity markets is good for the GLEN trading division.

Big coal play, possibly up for grabs if GLEN cal deal make...

What's not to like to be honest, but when to exit? Views most welcome!

"The announcement of Final Investment Decision (FID) for the Rosebank development offshore UK North Sea is an obvious positive for partners Equinor (80% operator) and Ithaca Energy (20%) and frankly for the UK North Sea offshore sector as a whole," said Mark Wilson, an analyst at Jefferies.

from:

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230927229/uk-approves-development-of-largest-untapped-oil-field

It will not do much for Delt unless we have concrete news, but always good for general industry sentiments.

Thereducer: I agree it is pretty odd it jumped so much just because of a positive broker note; they come out all the time and may have have targets way above 200p. In my view it's very doubtful the broker came up with some sort of pump and dump plot though. Barc ought to be worth 200+p, hopefully it can break out of the current range when sentiments improve.

Concluding remark: biotech has been depressed for a while...which for a company with so much cash would have a brilliant opp to buy for the future. What a wasted opportunity.

Meant VC not PE, sorry..