Member Info for dropside

Interesting sequence of events. First we have Tamesis (joint broker and also shareholder) resigning, then we have some large shareholders declaring themselves just before the GM. Then we have the main shareholders asserting themselves to the extent the board decide not to vote for their own proposition.
Now more negotiation needed with the shareholders, at least it reads like a constructive dialogue. Never boring round here!

Yes good to see some sizeable buys there.

GS - Ah yes, I had rather lost track of all the contracts issued. They were awarded the contract as per the RNS March 2017 "It is significant that we have been able to sign up a company of Capital Drilling's profile to provide future Drill and Blast services"
The Convertibles were issued in the June so that may (just surmising) have been when Jamie Boyton invested. He may still have convertibles as well as the equity we now know about.
Two things stand out for me. Firstly he is a guy who, from his CV, knows the mining business in detail from the operating and the financial/investing sides. He must come across a lot of opportunities and he also has some particular knowledge of Mowana and Leboam from Capital being part of the on-site operation. He has his own Hong Kong investment vehicle and has put a lot pf personal cash in here. It is not Capital Drilling being paid in shares (as sometimes happens) it is his own cash. On face value this is a strong endorsement.
However is this a short term plan and is he now looking to get out?
My second point is that he is holding 3.6% and has just announced it. If he planned to get out this would be bad business. As soon as he dropped below 3% he would know another announcement would crash the price - as everyone would expect the rest to be dumped too. So instead of announcing anything, it would have been sensible to quietly get rid of the £66K worth to drop the holding below 3% then he could stay below the radar, safely trading to his hearts content. I know I am making assumptions here but I see this holdings announcement as containing a potentially very good story.

I think this is the guy.
http://www.capdrill.com/about-us/board-of-directors

I would say it is no big deal. The shares authorisation looks like an update of the authorisation that was given at the June AGM as Resolutions 5 and 6. The values have increased a little, probably because of the extra shares issued as announced on 1 August.
The meeting to agree the 2017 financials was also flagged in June as they were not ready in time to be approved on 28 June.

Mine was the 13:27. I have held this back for a few days hoping the fall in copper prices would encourage some selling. It didn't, and this fact shows to me that the fundamentals here are seen to be undervalued. I've doubled my holding over the last 2 to 3 weeks, this company is doing all the right things in my view. No advice intended, DYOR!

Some good buying continuing into today and the big seller appears to have disappeared.

Nice new presentation on the website

http://cradlearc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/25-06-18-Cradle-Arc-Corporate-Presentation.pdf

It was a very good update and no surprise the market has reacted well, still plenty to go. Only surprise was how long it took to get going this morning, must be the warm weather! Gave me a chance to top up so was happy about that.

That's a good summary GS, long term shareholders got a bit shafted but I have averaged down so only 'need' 14p! These guys do know how to run a copper mine, and I believe we will see the plan they have made come to fruition and it will be a profitable mine. Finance for the DMS will need careful management as they have borrowed at high interest rates in the past. Hopefully if they can show solid production then the rates will come down. The further delay of converting the second tranche of warrants from August 2019 to February 2020 may be a sweetener to investors who may fund us again. Just a thought. Cabman, My CRA shares are with Hargreaves Lansdown but my ALO shares were with them too as nominee. More difficult if you have actual certificates. Worth converting though as this is actually mining copper, not just an explorer with a story.

That's a lot of money just gone in. This is priced to wither and die so now I guess is the time to build a stake, if the confidence and bravery level is high enough, not wait until it is back up to 10p.

If CRA would reconcile their different updates. It is hard to track and understand the changing timings and costs, particularly as some of the original documents were on the now-closed Alecto website. On production costs there were some interesting posts on here a few days ago but it is not completely clear, to me at least. The WA CPR in Jan 18 showed $1.5/lb cash costs. With no explanation I can see, this has grown in May 18 to $1.86/lb, and this is for the DMS, which is supposed to be cheaper. The All in sustaining cost is $2.29. Meanwhile the Valuethemarkets piece in April 18 has a cost of $2. The only explanation I can see is that the $1.50 was based on 91% metal recovery, and now it is showing less than that (ball park 70 to 80). So if the 12,000 tonnes a year was recalculated using all the new information as used in the May 18 DMS (new fuel rates also?), then maybe the C1 cost would be above the $1.86 they have for the 22,000 tonnes pa DMS. As has already been said, the financing assumptions in these numbers, if any, for the capital investment are not made clear. I’m sure this, plus the moving timing of the DMS (in May 17 it was to be 23,000 tonnes of Cu by Q3 2018) is not helping the share price. In December 2016 they announced they had conditional funding for a DMS with Fujax and NHI of $20m. They have since gone a bit quiet on that. Cash flow as a fund source has also been mentioned. They have recently repaid Fujax’s initial money as the cost was “prohibitive”, so maybe Fujax are off the table for the DMS too. On 31 May they said “construction work commencing later this year with a construction timetable of approximately 11 months” What is later this year? Plenty of wriggle room there. My guess is the funding is the main critical path item and the effort of minimizing the cost will drive the timing. They have been working very hard on the mining plan and their objectives as owners, I believe, are aligned with shareholders. So I am inclined to trust them to make the right decisions. However relying on ‘trust us’ is not helping the overall share price as I don’t think the market is finding it easy to absorb the changes, and so applies a discount for uncertainty. Of course as the uncertainty reduces then the risk discount brakes will come off.

When I said a risk factor was the single mill, I didn't mean just the mechanics of the mill, I meant they were what some people would call unkindly ' a one trick pony' . A failure of supply or a country (political, security) failure would be critical because, at the moment, they have high reliance on the one operation. I agree that supply of fruit bunches is an issue and we don't know enough about our competition for the supply of bunches- it went somewhere before DKL arrived on the scene after all. I agree they have had 3 bad quarters, one due to equipment. I was thinking of the reaction to the bad Q1 following a good Q4, this could be the start of terrible supply concerns due to climate or supplier relations or competition, or a combination, but until there are two or three quarters in a row it is too soon to call it a trend. Just erratic, which is why I wanted to look at a rolling 12 months. Yes they did over-promise and a black mark for them is their continuing relationship with Optiva who, I'm afraid, I do not trust. This does have the potential to be hugely cash generative, the elements are in place, so I am happy to average down at these prices as a tick up would quickly eat into my losses. Of course if I'm wrong....!

Yes an average down, and I aim to make money on these to off-set the higher prices I've paid, so I am still well under-water at the moment. I've been around this company since the placing in 2013 and take the longer view, they have achieved a lot although have had one or two hiccups along the way. But how many projects are flawless and have no issues over a 5 year period? The main risk factors for me going forward are the reliance on a single mill operation, and the Norpalm project is still unclear, will they over-pay etc?

Just made a top up, I think the reaction to one bad quarter has been over-done. Putting the good Q4 and the bad Q1 volume together there is little variance to the previous year. As any gardener knows, timing and yields vary, crops are not like making cars, it may be better to look at the yields on a rolling 12 month basis. If the peaks are being smoothed out, as Lincoln suggested, then that may actually be more efficient for the mill, to have more level production across the year. Just my thoughts, we could have a terrible Q2 and see another fall! but personally I will look at longer term production trends.

Rev, Please put me down for 31 August 2018 The Cinnamon Trust Thank you! dropside

Yep I like it! Lot of detail here.

Its good to see some life returning to this board! I am still 7K under water but am quite happy this will recover and more, once the mine is proven as profitable and not, worse case, a Weatherby (WTI) type disaster. We may not have long to wait and, beyond this, the DMS will be exciting upside to volumes and profit. Mowana was a good deal, New mines will always carry a price discount for risk but far more is known about the geology and mining of this formerly producing site than, say, Weatherly's new Tschudi mine. So we should be on track, and if operating profitability is confirmed then we should re-rate substantially as a producing mine with the risk discount coming out. Its been a long wait but I agree a 'healthy jump' coming.

Yes, Mowana was also sold as the key that unlocked the funding for Matala, by giving the asset base on which funds could be borrowed. Maybe Mark Jones was over-optimistic about this and the funding still din't come. Maybe the new management just were not as interested in Matala. Maybe Mowana is so good they want to focus completely on that and just get some quick cash out of Matala. Who knows, but Matala was one of the attractions for me in Alecto so this is a disappointing end to that saga.It looks as if the parts of the old Alecto are being dropped one by one.

Align tweet: Interesting point from a market ptcpnt re Beaufort -may explain weakness in a lot of small cap stocks of late - they likely been selling stock that they received for placings etc.