The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The thing with the order wins is they are net of the order bank consumption, so even more impressive. In the half year the order bank has increased 26m while the order bank was being consumed by 26m so the order wins must have been 26+26 = 52m in a 6 month period. That is a very impressive run rate.
I took some encouragement from this line in the PMI report issued yesterday:
Rates charged by sub-contractors increased at the fastest pace since September 2023, despite
a robust and accelerated improvement in availability.
I was just thinking that in all the DKL RNSs I have seen and all the interviews, I don't recall ever hearing of any of the directors actually visiting Cote D'Ivoire. Or have I missed something, happy to be proved wrong? Directors of other companies like to be photographed, samples in hand visiting the overseas mine or factory, or stand next to the drill or truck with local workers. Stand to be corrected but has there been one photograph?
If i was a director, I may not be an expert in process machinery (actually I am but never mind) , but I would be out regularly seeing the issues and what needed to be unblocked. When Oltremare were failing I would have been camped out in their factory every day, drinking from their Lavazza machine and being a nuisance until they performed just to get rid of me.
Where is the energy from this board of directors?
I sometimes wonder if they have not fancied flying out to Abidjan at all!
I bought in the IPO float in 2013 and sold out a few months ago though I did trade it a fair bit too so my loss was real and painful but not as big as it could have been. It was a good story back in 2013, setting up a new facility in Cote d'Ivoire, on time to budget (no doubt the then Asian co-owners made sure of that) and a 1m plants a year nursery to revolutionise productiveness in the area. Don't hear much about the nursery these days, nor the RPSO certification, nor Guitry, nor the company owned plantations that were going to tie production, nor the fertiliser programme... Plant has never run above about 30,000 tonnes a year, about half capacity with an endless list of excuses and jam tomorrow.
Cashews are years behind and there is not been any realistic explanation or honest forecast along the way, frequently implication was 'imminent'. The next news will always be much better. Shareholders have been taken for fools.
With the assets they have this, objectively, is not expensive but the debt has crept up and is a material risk. With a new set of directors this could be a good investment but the board now needs clearing out. 10 years of failure, but directors fared alright with salary, share issues and buying out related party assets. Certainly not going to waste any more time on this, the current directors have no credibility whatever. If even Rugs has (nearly) had enough that tells a story.
Good luck all.
Nice update from Taylor Wimpey today, following the positive message from Persimmon yesterday. Have we now seen the low point of the cycle?
https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/corporate/investors/results-and-reports
I agree, most of the drop happened before the announcement., it now looks in retrospect.
Really saddened by that news Diggit, I am so sorry to hear of your loss.
Kitson House is a large asset but illiquid until it is sold. Is there anything to prevent them taking a mortgage on it which is then repaid on sale? It would not affect the sale potential surely.
I agree, they will still be here when the market picks up. Most of their competitors will not have a balance sheet like them and personally I would be happy to see them pick up distressed companies in their sector, as others with similar cash positions like Galliford Try have done.
At the moment with the cash equalling the market cap, we are getting the whole Nexus-Tamdown business for free.
Bad news, not sure how much if anything Tamdown will get of the money owed. Terrible news for the Ilke employees, must be a real shock.
Yes it is very fast compared with a mine but this is basically a process plant so a mine is not the same, no need to worry about strip ratios, grade control, mine life plan, blasting and crushing, mining contractors, remediation etc. Therefore BFS should be a lot simpler.
I think RBW are looking at really proven optimisation to justify debt funding. My theory for why it is talking the time, alternatively they could just be faffing about, but I don't think so!
I must admit I tend to switch off now to all the talk about Rare Earths and the strategic value , I know all that. What I am really interested in is timing and this has stretched my patience and I have been wondering whether to sell as there seems no sense of urgency, at least looking from the outside. Going back to Jan 21, I think it was a IMC presentation, I pinned George down on indicative timing for Phalaborwa, he gave pre-feas end 21, BFS Q2 22, Spade in Q3/4 22, 10--12 mts ramp up then full production Q4 23.
Now its a bit unfair quoting this as George had only just taken the project on and was giving the best assessment he could. However this is a low capital project and the first-sight timing does not look unfeasible if that was the priority. It looks like , dare I say it, maybe they are "making the perfect the enemy of the good"?
To check this further I looked back through George's history with MDM and he does indeed have a great background of projects delivered and so too the people working with him. I think the backing from the US may be significant, they have 2 directors from the State Department for goodness sake, and these backers are the ones they have to satisfy I think , not us retail shareholders so much. Its interesting that George talked openly about an equity raise to fund the pilot plant. This has not been mentioned of late and now there is more talk of debt and off-takes. I could be wrong but if non equity funding is confirmed then this could be the first decent push to sentiment and share price for a while. Likewise any off-take agreements. I just think maybe I have to be patient for a few more months, maybe no more than 2 for the pilot funding.
Who knows Burundi could drop at any time too, meeting there end of this month.
dbentley, Your posts on Dekel over the years have always been sensible and balanced and that you are now at the end of your tether says a lot more than the average poster. For myself I first bought in the IPO promoted by Optiva, when it all looked so promising back in 2013. I'm out of it now but after 10 years involvement I keep an eye on it. There is potential here but it needs a catalyst for change and I can't see it. A new dynamic leadership team at the company would help.
Todays announcement is typical Dekel. I know we are due the Cashew numbers next month but there is a little teaser implying Cashews are ticking along... but why not say what is happening? If I went to the plant today would I see it running at full chat or at a standstill? Even given the numbers are to come in April, they could say whether they are at now running at 50% line rate or whatever. I suspect little is happening otherwise on past practice we would have a short video of the plant running with piles of work in process and finished stock.
Its a shame they don't produce manure, they would capture the world market. There is no energy to get anything done. A simple thing like RSPO , they blathered about that for 8 years. This from:
25 August 2015
DekelOil Public Limited ('DekelOil' or 'the Company')
Strong Progress Towards Gaining Certification to the Round Table for Sustainable Palm Oil.
Strong progress, glacial more like.
My impression is that the Cote d'Ivoire in-country team is actually quite good but they have no support from London. The palm oil plant was put up on time and to budget but that was a turn key project from Asia. The same team was put into the cashew plant project but cashew plants are more complex and the separation process is more critical as parts of the nut are poisonous. Oltremare were not a great sourcing decision as they are a smallish outfit and seemed unable to control the various vendors and manage the project, and there was no project management or vendor chasing from DKL management in the UK. The guys in Cote d'Ivoire were left waiting for important equipment for about 3 years! How often does the senior management visit Cote d'Ivoire, if at all? Honestly this feels like a lifestyle company and it is a shame as there is real potential.
Last thing, look out for the net debt they have. Every time they increase debt they write it up as restructuring at lower interest rates etc. The increase in debt is cloaked in positive comment.
No advice intended, I've lost money here so may not be entirely unbiased! DYOR.
All good questions. As the cashew was in the 'final stages of commissioning' last September they really should tell us what it is producing now, not wait until the 15 April. It suggests problems, if the number was good in January, wouldn't they have told us? Endless delays and how are they off for cash, can they fund the delays and the coming stock builds? It may be this is completely wrong and the cashew is just about to take off so the share price is an absolute steal. They have just given an update so shouldn't be in a close period so why no director buying? Anyway there are plenty of very good investments in the market at the moment so no need to stay with this faffing about. In the words of the Dragons' Den, "I'm Out!" For the sake of LTHs I really hope I am wrong and this works out for you. I'll watch with interest (and maybe regret!) but it is just too frustrating for me!
The lack of information on this cashew project is appalling. Apparently "currently transitioning to full scale commercial production" what does this mean? It could have been said at any point in the last 12 months...
They seem to work on the basis of whatever you tell them Lincoln, tell them nothing!
A share-holder focussed company would tell us exactly what point they have reached, proven capacity per day, and timing to hit stage one production volume. Not much to ask is it?
It may be as some have suggested that they have run out of nuts to process and the plant is at a standstill. Well if so, why not tell us, its an understandable, if disappointing, account.
Like many here I'm well under water but am optimistic about the cashews ultimately doing very well. Its odd how guarded they have been throughout on this project when the communication on the palm oil side has become quite good.