Assessment6 May 2021 05:30
I have been following the recent announcements over the last few weeks. My assessment is as follows:
The share price got a nice boost after the Saipem contract news but fell immediately after the interims announcement. Clearly everyone liked the former but not the latter. Quite what shareholders were expecting from the interims for the share price to fall is a bit of a mystery to me. Ultimately, this is a high growth company, there will be cash burn in the initial phases followed by a long period of stability with larger contracts kicking in. It should not be too difficult to figure that out.
Looking at the placing record, I am actually quite impressed: 2019 @8mm, 2020 @9mm, 2020 @8mm and now 2021 @10.30mm. Clearly, Infa enjoys strong institutional support even now given that this is their largest raise in the last 15 months.
The company has also gone through the ravages of Covid like everyone else. Imagine buying Belfast in Dec 2019 and three months later going into a national lockdown - you couldn't have written this. Despite that, Appledore is in the bag and so is Bifab. The largest contract in the company's history at 26.50mm is also in the bag. Strong institutional support across three placings has been demonstrated. The company probably has the largest fabrication capability in the country and is yet so heavily under valued.
Quite frankly, what JW and team have achieved till date is rather impressive. Keeping aside the dilution angle for the moment, to take a company that was likely to shut the lights out into one that owns some of the largest dry docks in the world and one of UK's largest fabrication capabilities, all in the span of 15 months, in the middle of a global pandemic, is nothing short of impressive. I suggest that we all take a deep breath here to understand what is it that we, as shareholders, now own. From a one project company to a multi asset company, each of our risks has been reduced substantially.
Dilution is an inevitable reality. You simply cannot expect the company to perform with no cash and yet bid and aspire to win large fabrication, defence and cruise contracts. I believe that Infa are already working on a shoe-string budget and making the best use of their highly limited resources. This company will burn through some cash over the next few months but I sense the tide changing. One large contract leads to the next and then the next. But these contracts do not fall into JW's lap. There is a lot of work, negotiation and effort that goes from enquiry through to execution, and this process can take months for larger contracts. If any shareholder believes that these contracts happen overnight, delusion is setting in. This constant need for news is a product of a fundamental lack of understanding of how long large commercial contracts take to come to fruition.
This stock is not for the faint-hearted, yet, if you stick with it, there is likely to be significant wealth accretion. I still absolutely bel