Member Info for DRichi

later this week. Expecting an RNS confirming that PPC now produces and sells Gas. Increased Production, increased sells, improves the bottom line, and diversifies PPC's core operations. Hoping confirmation of this can add a penny or two to the SP....

The SP seems to have stabilised at 4p-ish. Question is where it goes to next. Planned work for 2020 gas/workovers should take Production from 2400BOPD to a conservative estimate of 4000BOPD+. That's a plus. There's also company unknowns like exploritory drilling and acquisitions, and then there's the wider macro unknowns espcially the Argentine Gov, and the price of Brent Crude.

To make a very good ROI this year, we'll need most if not all of those variables to go PPC's way.

I think PPC will achieve the increase to 4000+. That's 167% of today's production, 167% of SP = 6.67p. (Obvs SP doesn't work exactly like that but the correlation is there). PPC have stated that there will be Exploritory drills in Argentina & Paraguay, but the % chance of success and the total costs are only guesstimates at present. Arg Gov does not seem as bad as 1st feared. And price of oil? Who knows?

Fingers crossed. GLA.

The two 3million trades have been reported twice. Presumably someone selling 6 millions shares, and a counterparty buying 6 million shares, so no impact on the SP. Be interesting to see the related holdings RNS and find out who these parties are.

The 2019 non-audited Financials state "Adjusted EBITDA* circa US$12m". That's likely to increase significantly this year with the Angostura field already contributing and Gas coming online this month. Debt has been paid down significantly too. All of which means that PPC should have free cash avaialble for workovers and exploritory drilling.

Acquistions, would cost too of course, but any deal for that is lilely to be pay an initial up-front fee and then spread the cost over x amount of years. Just as long as they don't come asking us for cash anyway!

Sorry for the tangent yesterday, was three sheets to the wind after a long Dickensian lunch. ;-)

By the YE, I would hope gas coming online (this month) and successful workovers should be enough to achieve 4000BOPD+ and this with a decent price for the sells should be enought to double the SP to circa 8p. I'll keep my fingers crossed too for a decent acquisition or farm-out or exploritory drilling success in Paraguay, which could have an even bigger effect on the SP.

Could/might/possibly - looking forward to when this tense can be changed from future conditional and we are talking about what is happening.

Slight tangent; but in Argentina, "What planet are you on ??" can only be referencing the World Cup commentary from the 2nd goal (1st was hand of God); "Ahí la tiene Maradona, lo marcan dos, pisa la pelota Maradona, arranca por la derecha el GENIO del fútbol mundial.. y deja el tendal y va a tocar para Burruchaga… Siempre MARAADOONA! Genio! Genio! Genio! Ta-ta-ta-ta-ta-ta-ta… Gooooool… Goooool…Quiero llorar! Dios santo, viva el fútbol! Golaaaaazoooooo! Diegooooooool! Maradona! Es para llorar, perdonenme.. Maradona… en un recorrido memorable… En la jugada de todos los tiempos.. Barrilete cósmico.. ¿De qué planeta viniste?......."

Positive because PPC turned a decent profit. Sure it was significantly les than we had hoped for at the start of the year, but there were tricky headwinds, and a profit is good, and also the company is in a stronger position to grow now.

The RNS tells news that was expected/known. I think it's a good story. 2019 had lots of challenges; lower oil prices, temporary shut-down in Louisiana, and Decree 566 in Argentina; and despite these headwinds, PPC still increased production, turned a profit, increased acreage and reserves and laid the foundations for future success.

Gas coming online at end of Feb, and planned workovers should easily take Production this year to > 4000 BOPD. After a history of promising future success and under-delivering, it's reasonable that the market will only price in what's actually happened. I am however optimistic that this year PPC will deliver and the SP can rise accordingly.

2018 was supposed to be "by hook or by crook" then 2019 got pushed back due to difficulties in Louisiana /Argentina and lack of cash-flow. I remember reading that a promise had been made to the President of Paraguay to start drilling, so it really should happen one day, and at the moment it does seem planned for this year. The Operations in Paraguay bit of the website says, "President has commenced preparations to drill one of the prospects in the Imperial complex during the second half of 2020."

"Commenced" could mean anything from having paid up front for a rig, or only put a few ideas down on paper in a 1st draft of a project plan. But the saying "Commenced" rather than "to commence at dd-mmm" does make it sound like it is happening.

Funding? Let's see the financials and see how much free cash PPC is generating on a monthly basis. After the fail of the last attempted cash raise via dilution, at PPC will know not to try that again. At least not in the open market anyway, the deal with Traifalgur ultimately achieves the same.

The FAQ's state that in Paraguay, "One well is planned, targeting one such prospect to commence operations at or around the third quarter 2020 which will mean that the major expense will fall into 2021 and accordingly will not affect in any way our plans for growth in our producing areas this year"

Drill now, amortise the costs, impact on the Balance Sheet over the following few years which will be paid for by the massive oil strike and extra revenues that it brings. Works in theory I guess.

Agreed. Obviously concerns about the virus in China are bad, but I think the impact on O&G has been over-estimated.

Paraguay- I'm looking fwd to PPC drilling there in H2. I think the knowledge gained from the 2014 campaign and the Argentinian operations in similar conditions should (theoretically) de-risk this a bit and make success more likely. Fingers crossed anyway...

Oh- I had completely forgotten to factor in the new number of shares in issue because of Trafigura. Schroders bought 3m shares then! That's better. :-) (they really could make those Holding RNS's easier to read).

The SP has opened up now, let's hope some Buys come in at Ask, and the Bid can move up too....

The August 2018 presentation on Presidents website shows that two projects acquisitions were to account for nearly half of total production by 2019 YE. Not sure what we can read into there.

Holdings RNS out - Schroders plc confirming that they sold shares last Thursday. Hopefully that's it from them as they still hold a lot so if they want to sell more it could keep the SP down for a while.

Northern- agreed. Also, worth emphasising that the RNS says "a more substantial leap or two in 2020 if...." It would be great to see PPC take a leap forward. It would be marvellous to see them take two.....

More shares in issue= bad. Company paying down debt = good. We can argue the toss either way.

All invested in here are because either they think a) the company is undervalued, or b) the company has the opportunity to grow exponentially in the near future. Either way we all want, debt to be paid down, production to be ramped up, no more shares to be issued., and for the SP to go up. I think both a & b are true, but I'm an optimistic fellow, who thinks Bournemouth are going to beat Brighton tonight and go on a magnificent unbeaten run for a while to secure mid-table safety.

@Come2k- it's important to have both positive & negative views expressed, so let's not be mean to anyone, even Brasso, who has more skin in the game than most (& after all it is fair enough to be underwhelmed with the SP performance).

This share will come good one day, maybe even this year......... ;-)

City AM - "Standard and Poor analysts described the deal as “a very positive restructuring”
https://www.cityam.com/trafigura-to-take-six-per-cent-stake-in-president-energy/

Malcy -"The market has been unforgiving but if Peter Levine and Trafigura want a big slice of something, people should follow."
https://www.malcysblog.com/

ah, I missed that bit of the RNS. Sounds like a rubber-stamping exercise to be fair.

Nice2Michu- Good analysis of the SP. I'm thinking (hoping) that bringing the Gas online, and then successful workovers in Argentina & Louisiana can bring the SP back up 8-10p range, and then in H2 2020, PPC can take a crack at Paraguay where if they strike it lucky this SP could (finally) fly!! Heard this before? Back when Michu was scoring for goals for Swansea IIRC. Still, maybe this time.....

The RNS today mentioned that, "Further selective unaudited information of the performance last year will be given at or around the end of this month." Also I would expect there to be an RNS confirming once the gas pipeliune has been finished which should be next week.

General meeting planned for 6th Feb? Where can i find the details on that?

Debt is always been something that has hung heavily over PPC. The RNS states that, "The practical effect of both the subscriptions and conversions announced today will immediately reduce debt by a minimum of nearly US$6 million and potentially nearly US$15 million which will..... free (PPC) of all of its existing third party financial debt within the next 18 months."

To have the debt paid off will greatly strengthen the company, enabling it to weather downturns and maximise profitability. Should ensure that there is no downside at investing at these prices.

FAQ's have been updated and say this about Paraguay.

There will be drilling in 2020, "starting with Rio Negro and Jefferson Island, Louisiana and our plan is to commence with Salta and Paraguay in H2."

Is there any prospectivity (new word on the PPC website- not my language) in Paraguay?
"Yes, significant and the more work we do the more we appreciate how compelling the exploration opportunity is. But this is exploration, it is inherently risky. It has to be remembered that this is a new frontier. It is not unusual in such cases that there is initial failure from which one learns and we have learnt a lot both operationally and sub surface. On the former with our successful Argentine management handling the operations and with the experience gained in all areas, significant savings and efficiencies will be achieved
Whilst elements of the 2014 drilling program were indeed disappointing, it was by no means a failure. In fact, two logged discoveries in the deeper more expensive Paleozoic formations were made in the second well but structural issues down hole prevented testing
Since then, President has focused on de-risking a number of Cretaceous opportunities that have certain characteristics in common with the prolific producing fields across the border in Argentina
Taking into account the previous events we have carried out extensive work to proof test the concept continuing right up to now
Recent remapping, geophysical re-interpretation, analogue comparisons with data from the Argentine side, geochemical and AVO studies over highgraded prospects provide support for charge/migration of hydrocarbons into what there are undoubtedly structures with what shows as successful sealing
One well is planned, targeting one such prospect to commence operations at or around the third quarter 2020 which will mean that the major expense will fall into 2021 and accordingly will not affect in any way our plans for growth in our producing areas this year
In parallel a farm out process is continuing with parties signed to NDA’s. You will appreciate when we say that there can be however no guarantee that any farm out will happen. The farm out process does not affect the plans of President in this regard."