Member Info for DreamMachine

Hey Lewbo

Confused about what exactly? Certainly not about market cap, financial fundamentals, dilution, the number of shares in issue and the relationship to price. Prove me wrong. 6.15p tells me that I'm right. Market does not want to pay a premium right now. It might at some stage in the future. True or false?

Check the details? What details exactly? If any detail I've posted is wrong I'm happy to check it out.

As for the quote it was a bit of a joke, but it looks like it went over your head. Really:)))

Wilson63

No insult intended. I did actually wonder if you had hit an extra digit on the keyboard by mistake. Anyway, if 20p is a retirement figure, that should be doable in the event of a bid, but also possible if See improve their own financial bottom line over the next few years while avoiding further dilution.

The Magna deal shows they are prepared to pay 10p for new shares, so one assumes they think that right now See is worth at least that much. Chances are they may be positioning themselves for a bid at some point. Others may do the same if the auto order book gets to a billion. Throw in fleet and anything from aviation, then 20 to 25p valuation, a market cap of around a billion is doable in 2-3 years. A lot needs to go right though. Alternatively, find a time machine and party like its the mid 1990's..

"Valuations were based on earnings and profits that would not occur for several years if the business model actually worked, and investors were all too willing to overlook traditional fundamentals."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dotcom-bubble.asp

Question.

I have an investment here, I like the tech (I've not always liked the company strategy to be honest, but there you go) followed See for about 9 years now (anyone remember the Samsung hype? Whatever happened to that?)

I would do very well with a share price of £1.00. Would love it to happen. I know some of you would do very, very, very... well at that price, but I also think that I know what drives a share price higher. Not sure others do. Sometimes it's speculation and ramping, but for the most part it is numbers - real money numbers.

Here's a clue.

£1.00 share price with 4.5 billion shares in issue (post the next Magna dilution that is). = market cap of £4.5 billion. That market cap needs to be justified.

For those predicting such a price, justify it with financial numbers, revenue/earnings growth, profit/loss, etc. You know, all the things that lead to a meaningful higher price of a company. I doubt whether speculation will do it. Why would anyone pay that expectation premium for See? A company that hasn't always delivered as expected (go on, be honest about it, they haven't have they).

I work on the basis that the number of shares in issue is important. It matters. Unfortunately, See have been a serial diluter, around 500 million shares in issue when I first came across the company, 4.15 billion now - 4.5 billion (post Magna).

A quid a share? In what way is it "prudent"? At least talk of £3 quid a share seems long gone. mind you, for the one who said £2.40, can I have a glass of what you are on! £10.8 billion market cap. (post Magna dilution) Blimey!

For what its worth, I think the price in 12 months could well beat previous highs of 12p-13p provided a few contracts that pay in the here and now start to be delivered. Provided revenue "exceeds expectations". I'd like to see several years of at least 50%+ annual revenue growth rather than the current 15-20% growth rate, which is actually poor for a growth company (many ftse100 and 250 companies achieve that with less risk attached). And profit.

Provided an aviation contract or two turns up - still waiting. Provided fleet gets its act together - we just had another year of a production problem that the company kept quite about .

A quid a share? Maybe in three to five years, with no more dilution, revenue 5-10 times what it currently is and a decent profit each year, then maybe so. Its possible, the tech is good and wanted. If I was writing See's school report I would put - Could do better, no, should be doing better - for investors that is.

Happy New Year.