RE: Magna / NVIDIA20 Mar 2025 12:40
Brockwl -
How do they plan to pay back Magna the 45m in Oct 2026? Given when it is due they should be planning for that.
This is a very good question, and it is one that should be asked at the London Jolly Boys outing, but I doubt it will be answered.
To note:
β The deal on exclusivity ends in June, so just a few months away. Surely See are already in negotiations on that?
β The actual deal gave Magna the option to buy 350 million shares at 11p up to Oct 26. Clearly, they have no incentive to pay 11p when shares in the market are 2.4p.
β At the time of the deal, 350 million shares represented 9.9% of the company share issue. After further dilution, that is no longer the case. 9.9% now is approximately 479 million shares. So, if Magna want at least 10% as before, it will clearly have to be more than 350million.
β See cannot afford to repay the $47.5million. They just don't have the money.
β When it comes to giving Magna more shares, it will depend on what the share price is at the time. Magna hold all the cards.
β See need to get the share price up as high as possible, between now and OCT 26. Unfortunately, market conditions and Trump and his MAGA loons fighting tariff and trade wars don't make the immediate future look rosy. All of See's business interests are in areas of the economy that are likely to be hit hard by tariffs. It's a guess at the outcome. With Agent Orange in the White House, things look bad.
β There is something else. Magna is a Canadian company, and Canada is under threat from Trump. No one knows how this will play out, but Trump has clearly said he wants Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal, and the Riviera of the Middle East, the Gaza Strip. Canada is taking it seriously, and so should the rest of the world. No one can discount that Trump would not use the military option. He's mad enough for that. Magna might have more things on their mind than the See deal.
β My guess is that if some sanity returns, the Oct 26 deal is rolled forward for a couple of years. To do this, See would have to sweeten the pot, as they did with Cat to get that deal. Instead of 11p for 350million, they do 5.5p for 700million. This will depend on the market price at the time - it could be a billion plus. Whatever happens, it's another massive dilution, that will affect all shareholders. The 19% that Mit hold will be reduced - I'm sure they will be happy, as will everyone. That's what happens when you play the serial dilution game.
_ I suppose one other possibility is for the deal to stand as is, it is rolled forward, but See pay Magna interest on the $47.5 million for a couple of years. What would the IR be? 8%? 10%?
Other than a miracle of the share price going up and over 11p in the next 18 months, a rollover of the deal, or paying Magna an IR, is probably the best option. Not sure what else they can do.