Member Info for DRB83

There's an optimum prolonging period. Treating a pandemic as an endemic prolongs the pandemic way past the optimum point.

Much better to manage a pandemic to the point of endemic. Save lives.

Or do as Boris does and let people party on down in nightclubs whilst 200000 people are being infected in the middle of a contagion.

Didn't help that the market had priced revenue at around £400m prior to results. No such expectations this time around. £100m. Comfortable that the ground beneath us is pretty solid.

379 deaths, highest daily figure since February. Higher than any point during the Delta phase

1660 deaths in last week. Highest since beginning of March. Higher than any point during the Delta phase

Almost 20000 in hospital and climbing unfortunately. Half of the peak of Alpha pre vaccines. Higher than any point during Delta phase.

The figures for hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise for 2-3 weeks after the cases have peaked. Cases haven't peaked yet. The positivity rate just yesterday was 28 %. On Jan 4th when we reported 218000 it was 32%. Very similar and all it means is that infected people are walking around undetected. Not a good situation to be in.

I do hope today's figure included a bit of a lag and tomorrow will be less. At what point does Borris say the pile is high enough now. What's he waiting for I wonder.

We'll get there eventually but treating it like one before it is ready will only prolong the pandemic.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/omicron-variant-coronavirus-news-01-11-22/h_c7fb5eb4df4ba10f3ae646a20c161d8c

I didn't realise it happened last year. See below from gov website.

Changes to rapid lateral flow and PCR testing requirements
From 6 January in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and 11 January in England, people with positive lateral flow results for COVID-19 need to report their result but don’t need to take a confirmatory PCR test unless they develop COVID-19 symptoms. This is a temporary measure while COVID-19 rates remain high across the UK as the vast majority of people with positive lateral flow test results can be confident that they have COVID-19.

A similar approach was taken in January 2021, when infection prevalence was high, meaning it was highly likely that a positive lateral flow test COVID-19 result was a true positive. Confirmatory PCRs were temporarily paused and reintroduced in March 2021 after infection rates fell.

Reporting of positive cases remains unchanged. In England and Northern Ireland, cases identified through a rapid lateral flow test are included in case counts.

There are one off costs in there as per the accounts commentary so I would say he is being prudent. Just my opinion. Sometimes you have to read between the lines to get ahead of the market. Imo of course.

It's likely that the SP will rerate to what ever the market values the result at + the future revenues. If that turns out to be £5 then if we fall to £1 it doesn't matter because it will rerate to £5. The further it drops the more profit you stand to gain imo. All depends on results.

SPQ, there are one off costs in that 30% that won't be repeating. The increase in standard bad stock provision is likely to reverse in FY meaning a credit to OPEX. Based on the commentary inntye accounts, the underlying EBITDA is 50-55%. Obviously depends on what else has happened since.

The reduction was largely due to one off costs such as:

Increase in standard bad stock provision, about £2m. (This likely to reduce again in year end accounts imo.
Cost of 1m free tests supplied to UNICEF. I don't believe we have given away any other tests since.

Underlying EBITDA is likely to be in the 50's % imo.

Cash conversion was only impacted by tax. That was the 20% difference. I am actually expecting this to be higher in the FY as we have tax losses to carry forward and a shed load of patents which will result in tax credits.

Agreed Hans.

Was it the Chinese brown envelopes or the UK tax payers that funded BoJo's flat renovations and lavish lifestyle. Probably a mix of both. Cease the opportunity? He certainly did.

PCR usage wouldn't necessarily reduce as a result of the recent changes. It just wouldn't continue increasing. Largely because the dimwit government didn't purchase enough and despite being in a position to negotiate a resolution with ncyt to get more tests they decide not to.

Once the Omicron wave settles PCR usage will become wide scale again. That is my understanding. Still the world to go at also. India on the upward trajectory. It would be good if we were in with one of the largest testing companies in India. Arhh

If only they had access to a small portable machine that could churn through 240 gold standard tests per 8 hour shift. If only someone on their own doorstep could provide these. Oh well

This won't be us directly I don't believe but hopefully one of our customers will win it. Interesting that they mention dates for July/August and that the contract runs to Dec22. Testing demand all year

Just a friendly reminder if what our friends at Excalibur think of our assays. I wonder how sales are going.

Expertise & Innovation:

Excalibur‘s PCR test is performed in the laboratory by clinical laboratory personnel specifically trained in the diagnostic procedure required to conduct this specific test.
The test is extremely cost effective, and due to innovative processes (no RNA extraction step and early deactivation of the virus), significantly faster and therefore more relevant to the PCR testing requirements of businesses and the public.
Excalibur are working with Novacyt who launched a molecular test assay for SARS- CoV-2 early in the pandemic.
The test was approved as eligible for procurement under the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Emergency Use Listing process in April 2020, meaning that the test can be supplied by the United Nations and other procurement agencies supporting the COVID-19 response.
The test assay is in use with AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline and the University of Cambridge to support the UK in its COVID-19 national screening programme at the testing laboratory at the university’s Anne McLaren laboratory.
Technology:

Very importantly, the PCR machines are the state-of-the-art QuantStudio 7 Pro Real Time (RT) machine by ThermoFisher Scientific.

The combination of the Novacyt assay and the ThermoFisher machines means the Excalibur SARS CoV2 RT-PCR test can detect less than four viral copies of SARS CoV2 RNA in a sample, making this an exquisitely sensitive method for detecting SARS CoV2. Moreover, their test is 100% specific to the published sequences of all known SARS-CoV-2 variants

Another good day for the ncyt fundamentals today. Anything bad for the competition puts us in a more favourable position. A new strapline for ncyt is required.

Want quality? Want NCYT.

SP can and will do what it wants, fundamentals are key and the internal business metrics must be flashing green right now.

The arrogance of ncyt is deafening. 'we'll disclose what we want when we want', '£10m contract, ok, nothing major'. That arragance comes from being secure with what you're doing. That security comes from green internal business metrics. Imo

I think everyone would he over the moon with £150m but managing expectations I am expecting£110-120m realistically.

LFT Pro which is CE marked is for professional use only so once approved won't be available off the shelf. Once the self test is approved then yes, no reason why it couldn't be sold off shelf.

You had empathy?

My understanding is Trouble is a LTH. A dip under £3 is nothing we haven't already become accustomed to. Just makes for a cheaper top up if you can.

I don't know Woody, spoons will be burning close to that every quarter. A big chunk of people just deciding to stay away from pubs and restaurants for fears that they'll pick up covid. Restaurant meals now will be more of a one off treat for a while being replaced with home cooking and
takeaways. You still have to employ the staff though just in case. Wasn't the last placing in the £13's. It wouldn't look great to go back to market and say "I know you're already 30% down on the last placing but do you fancy averaging down".