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I sold all of my shares of Falcon last week after more then 10+ years holding and hoping for something. I figured I share my reasons.
1. Management team is not invested in the company
2. Board is just bunch of people who have very little experience running O&G except one.
3. High paying CEO have done nothing to increase the value of the company, happy collecting his paycheck and draining company resources.
4. Really bad communications with no real plans or execution dates.
5. JV partner who does not appear to want to move forward.
6. Other companies operating in Beetaloo, which are willing communicate the plans and deliver results.
Ouch just went over their "Climate Transition Action Plan" I suggest everyone takes look and make decision for themselves. I hope falcon leadership is reading this and maybe looking for the ways to dissolve this JV.
Here is the same flare under same observation conditions https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=60.52398&lng=28.11713&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-08-24T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-08-24T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Looks like Empire flows continue improving (Hotter flare, with the larger heat signature) can not wait to see breakdown of which section produced the best result hopefully initial results for the sections this week.
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.70062&lng=135.10089&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-08-21T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-08-21T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR
https://www.originenergy.com.au/about/investors-media/full-year-results-2022/
I reviewed every single document and beetaloo does not appear to be part of integrated gas strategy anymore. Documents showing diminished interest with the focus on finding new partner. I think this is bad news for us... Are we 100% sure that drilling will happen this September did we get anything firm?
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.70081&lng=135.10139&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-08-11T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-08-11T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR
looks like flow rates are getting better
The Tanumbirini 2H (T2H) and Tanumbirini 3H (T3H) wells in EP 161 (Santos 75% and operator,
Tamboran 25%) are currently flowing at 40% and 150% higher eight-day average flow rates,
respectively, when compared to corresponding rates in January 2022.
• The T3H well peaked at 9.1 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) and is flowing at an
eight-day average rate of 4.4 mmscfd over a 600-metre horizontal section (normalised at
7.4 mmscfd over 1,000-metres)....
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/d37cd9ae-4f2.pdf
Santos/Tambo flares are back and appear to be significantly bigger
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-16.39899&lng=134.7027&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-08-06T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-08-06T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Looks like Tambo free and clear to move forward. M1H well is on track to be complete ahead of the arrival of the Ensign Rig 970 from mid-August 2022. So they have this rig for 60 days so this will put drilling for Falcon about November.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/989044/tamboran-resources-free-to-restart-nt-drilling-activities-after-legal-win-989044.html
Original Kool-Aid drinking started here SantaFe California. https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/heaven-gate-mass-suicide-20-years-article-1.3008847
I am bit curious why ppl are choosing to continue their investment in Falcon vs Empire or Tambo. I stepped away from falcon. As I think Tambo/Empire will have better outcome in the short to medium term.
Let me know if I am incorrect on any of those.
1. Seismic has not been done
2. Drilling activity scheduled for September but plans are not firm. Subject to change.
3. Monetizing plans are changing and POQ and new board thinking we can get better value if we take this production (it is fuzzy)
4. Sites that are visible through the satellites have not been mentioned or discussed
5. South Africa question was good other then that other question were about current market, which I did not pay any attention.
PS this call took me back like 20 years I think they need to start considering using technology that currently available for those calls :)
Found another clearing that appear to be sitting on Falcon permit this is very well maybe 10km step out. https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-16.50778&lng=134.49562&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-07-12T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-07-12T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
This is new clearing next to Amungee site
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=16&lat=-16.28999&lng=133.60565&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-07-07T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-07-07T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Unfortunately I am rather to be wrong on this one and kicking myself for selling significant chunk, but looking at this now decision appear to be correct. I basically moved maybe about 70% away from Falcon to Empire and Tamboran. With Empire taking about 40% and Tamboran taking around 30%. So final breakdown is 30% Tamboran , 30% Falcon and 40% Empire. Empire taking largest chunk since they will have fastest result. Very similar what Sheffield did but on the much smaller scale