RE: TBN deal with Falcon - All stop!!27 Nov 2025 03:04
IMO. Santos EMP changes things in a big way. When the Falcon–Tamboran deal was agreed, the basin was quiet, funding was tight, and Falcon really didn’t have many options. That’s not the situation anymore. Santos stepping forward with a 12-well appraisal program signals that the Beetaloo is moving into proper commercial appraisal. That instantly increases the value of every nearby acreage position, including Falcon’s 22.5%. It also makes Falcon more visible to other potential partners who may want an entry point now that the basin is clearly waking up. This is why it’s fair to question whether the current deal still represents the best outcome for Falcon holders. The new landscape suggests Falcon might secure better terms—or even a different offer—if the company pauses and reassesses. And if that happens, shareholders could see returns much sooner than waiting years for a long rollout under Tamboran.
The deal made sense in a different environment. With the basin shifting this quickly, it’s reasonable to make sure Falcon isn’t selling itself short.