Member Info for douve87

Hi all, thanks for your comments and i welcome your positive views and hope you are right.

TF with respect I dont feel I have jumped to conclusions with regards a commercial deal being kicked into the longgrass. The rns states clearly that "With the additional funds available from the Capital Raise, the Company intends to add further value to both the Avidimab™ platform and the TaG antibodies BEFORE concluding any licensing deals." We've been led to believe that its avidimab or tags that was nearest a deal and so find it hard to believe all of a sudden one of the other platforms is going to have overtaken. From my view this quite clearly states that a commercial deal is not going to be signed shortly. I appreciate it doesnt give timelines but from previous experience I expect this to be at least a year research is not quick. Also if a commercial deal is still imminent why dilute now. To borrow Chelsea's analogy its like getting a mortgage on a house today for a larger amount at a worse rate when you could get a better deal if you waited to tomorrow(not my best analogy admittedly). Surely we all agree a commercial deal would have a positive effect on the share price so if its imminent do the dillution after that. So one of two conclusions either the commercial deal has been kicked into the long grass or we've secured funding at greater dillution at a time when it wasn't necessary (we still have £15m in the bank). Although I doubt the bod's business nouse I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and believe they're not giving mates rates so it must be the former. If anyone can offer an alternative interpretation or doesn't agree a commercial deal would improve our shareprice please let me know.

Lastly in response to Chelsea about £30m I agree its a sign of confidence from redmile and from past experience they know what they are doing but let's not get carried away. 1) although large to us it is only £30m to them altho im positive they would have had larger tax write offs in the past. 2) let's remember they're in at 5p and 13p so they're very well insulated against losing out especially alongside the fact they will also be getting 3% interest which altho low is a % i would love for my savings at present when banks are talking of negative interest rates. To borrow the house analogy again banks at present dont necessary think every borrower will payback but once you increase the deposit amount required and factor in the interest they cant really lose money. At 5p and 13p with interest I cant see Redmile losing anything I would say they're in the best position especially considering that if results continue to be strong they're now in a great position to take us over (which we could do little to stop).

Anyway onwards and upwards.

Chester, quick question is your mention of armchair wannabee captains of industry in reference to me? If so I don't really appreciate it or feel its necessary to use such derogatory terms?
You are right i don't know what is going on in the board room and neither do you (unless you're going to declare you are in fact CH)? What i can do is base my opinion on past performance (which is all any of us can do) which unfortunately does back my view up that the bod can't complete a commercial deal or keep to a timeline. Someone said it was strange how people would be happy if we had completed a deal for £2m but are negative with £30m but the big difference is one would be non dillutive and one is certainly not. The latter also unfortunately suggests a commercial deal has again been kicked into the long grass whereas a commercial deal even a relatively small one could have been the first step in wider market recognition and more importantly a re-rate for our share price. Its true that this funding could also, and obviously I hope it does but I suspect (and I hope I'm wrong) that in the short term and I mean until after the oo the share price will drop to 13p (again not being overly negative considering where we were a few months back). I would however, be 99% positive that wouldn't happen with a non dillutive commercial deal even at £2m.
Lastly I'm not trying to be negative i am extremely positive and optimistic for the science but am frustrated by the bods inability to meet timelines or complete deals (A* for science but D for business nouse to date). As none of us know what is going on behind closed doors you may be proven right on this case but equally I may be. Not trying to be negative but equally don't think its healthy to always believe every action is part of some massive master plan and its very easy to jump to conclusions that in hindsight may seem naive. As an example I remember when scancell last hired some additional scientists just before the grand challenge and some people speculated that was the sign that scancells proposal had been successful, it wasn't. It was then suggested that these new recruits were clearly hired due to scancell continuing our collaboration on project blueprint with the same partners from project blueprint again this did not happen or hasn't yet (1 year 9 months later). I'm not trying to be smart after the fact as I would have loved it to be true but think it highlights how its very easy for some people to jump to the wrong conclusions. As mentioned yesterday its very easy to over analyse words and actions, none of us know but as this is a public forum I only consider it a positive to have differing views, interpretations and opinions shared without name-calling. Anyway onwards and hopefully upwards.

So all suggests to me that once again the bod can't get a commercial deal done.

OK wtp, it doesnt categorically say no commercial deal but states it doesnt intend to do a commercial deal until they add further value and considering they've been intending to do a commercial deal until this rns and haven't it doesnt seem likely.
Crumbs true that extract is specifically in relation to avidimab and tag but considering we've been waiting for a commercial deal on the other platforms since 2012 and have been led to believe a deal on avidmab is most likely I think its highly unlikely a deal on modi has overtaken. Lastly crumbs I agree there is no timeline with how long to add value but consideringits scancell I guess it will be a year at least if not longer. If it is weeks I'd come back with my question why dillute now as surely less dillution would be required after a commercial deal (higher shareprice)?

Wtp cut from the rns:
"Avidimab™ platform and the TaG antibodies update

With the additional funds available from the Capital Raise, the Company intends to add further value to both the Avidimab™ platform and the TaG antibodies before concluding any licensing deals."

 

Botski, so do you think a commercial deal is still likely? I understand that a commercial deal was never go to fund all further developments but neither will the funding which is going through now especially with increased outlays. And if a commercial deal was done first the additional funding would have been done at an even higher price for us (so less dillution). I cant help but feel cheated that CH keeps mentioning commercial deals so either he is naive, or deliberately misleading mentioning commercial deals far too prematurely.

Apologies for some reason my last message posted twice

Botski, the rns specifically states a commercial deal will not be concluded until we have more data. So don't think todays rns is a red herring, once again the bod have failed and had to dillute. Like I say there are some positives but don't agree this is all positive and the bod have done a great job. For one they never keep their timelines and keep mentioning commercial deals far too prematurely.

Botski, the rns specifically states a commercial deal will not be concluded until we have more data. So don't think todays rns is a red herring, once again the bod have failed and had to dillute. Like I say there are some positives but don't agree this is all positive and the bod have done a great job. For one they never keep their timelines and keep mentioning commercial deals far too prematurely.

Hi shareguard I understand im not obligated to accept the offer but my point is whether I or any other private investor choose to accept it or not will make no difference at all.on whether the takeover goes through. Pruvate investors ultimately have no say if the iis accept.
Miavoice, my apologies I misread the rns and you are correct which is even worse 13p not 18.25p. I appreciate a takeover at the price would likely fail (but not impossible as most institutional investors would still make a profit at that).

I dont doubt redmiles competence and this puts them in prime position to takeover with the only condition being their offer must be at least the highest share price from the last 12 months which currently would be 18.25p. I appreciate this can and hopefully will rise but even so this is far below historic highs of 64p and is far below what I would consider an acceptable offer. But the sad truth is if they wanted to take over I and us other private investors would have very little say in stopping them.

Hi lochinvarlass, yes I recognise how much research cruk is involved in but that is hardly a new development. Equally I recognise what impact covid has had on them like it has on scancell and practically every other part of the economy. But even under such conditions cruk are continuing with research and testing and will prioritise the ones they feel have most promise. So if they don't pick scancell its hardly a good sign and the fact they've seemingly done nothing or very little in the years since the deal was announced is also not a good sign. Like I say more money is not a bad thing and Redmile willingness is also good but with it our expenses will greatly increase and we're taking on more risk neither of these are good things. And with our bods inability to complete a commercial deal I do worry we will be in the same position in a years time. A good commercial deal cannot be looking imminent otherwise why further dillute?

As always caveated that I'm not a deramper but I see todays news as neutral at best. I don't see how anyone can say they don't see this as a sign of deal discussions not going well when they state they won't complete a deal until they have more info. People may say that's because the other party isn't offering enough but that's the definition of deal discussions not going well when the different parties have completely different valuations. Also people are saying that money will be used to further validate and focus our research but I thought that's what our collaboration with biontech was for (which we've had no update on and no deal which can't be a positive). Lastly I've seen some comments about it being good if we doing the testing for scib2 ourselves instead of cruk but again I don't agree. This is more expense and hardly shows confidence in the platform if cruk drop it. I agree its great validation from Redmile and more money in the coffers is never a bad thing but what's clear with all the activity stated as well as new employees and potentially bring scib2 back in is our outlays are significantly increasing and we're taking on more risk (whatever you look at it a third party (cruk) doing and paying for scib2 testing reduced sclp's risk incase it doesnt work). The most disappointing thing for me is more dillution and once again we've been misled (probably deliberately as others have said this isn't the kind of deal done in a day and must have been in discussion for quite a while) with regards timelines for a deal and as seems to be my catchphrase I'm yet to be impressed by the bod as they seem incapable of completing a commercial deal.

Balerno, I'd be surprised if the shareprice has been hit so much simply from the removal of H1 from the rns but this is aim so anything is possible. I was just reading that as the bod maybe finally learning about underpromising and over delivering when it comes to timelines. With everything happening with covid at present I actually thought there was a chance phase 1 could be speeded up if the clinical data is promising but maybe I'm too much of an optimist? Lol

Balerno, completely agree. I asked last week whether forum users felt confident that the bod would finally meet one of their own timelines. I feel sentiment could be hit again if they don't announce any commercial deals before the end of oct.

Any ideas for the price drop. There doesn't seem to be anything in rns to warrant it?

Ruck, quite agree. Although I don't believe scancell is risk free and accept that risk is relative to each individual i dont agree that scancell is very very risky. I hope nobody is invested here that doesn't realise that investing in shares carries risk and especially aim listed shares but to describe scancell as very very risky implies we are particularly risky which as already mentioned on aim would really mean something. For an aim listed stock I'd actually consider us at this moment in time to be one of the less riskier shares for the reasons you stated ruck. Anyway as with everything time will tell. Good luck all.

Don't want to be accused of deramping as mentioned numerous time im optimistic and positive regarding the future of scancell. What I'm not confident on is the bod's time keeping. Every date the bod seem to give regarding research collaborations, phase testing/development, and commercialisation seems to be missed. I recognise there are things outside the control of the bod which influence timelines but really they should be better at factoring in delays especially after all these years and their experience. Anyway my question is how confident/likely do people on this forum feel this timeline will be met and we will have our first commercial deal by the end of October?

I also like the fact there hasn't been a rns stating the directors know of no reason for the shareprice rise. Suggests they do know why (not implying leak) - that we've been undervalued for far too long (and still are). Anyway hopefully I haven't jinxed us. And as always waiting for that first commercial deal (and hoping to be finally impressed by the bod's commercial nouse). Can't be long now fingers crossed.

Dont think I've ever seen so many price extensions (not.in company's ive invested in anyway) in such close proximity and long may it continue. Onwards and upwards