Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Apologies i was busy all yesterday. But do we actually have confirmation it was vulpes that voted against as they could have converted their clns in order to support the motion?
Also if we believe nct (is that he's name on advfn?) And it is vulpes then wasnt it stated that they weren't happy with the length of the clns ie them being over two years and thinking they should be longer. So if that is true its not a case that they object to redmiles investment or even their own investment being dilluted (not that anyone likes that) but the the terms of investment. If that is the case and the motion passes it would be quite an extreme reaction to sell all your shares just because they thought it should be a longer term. I could understand a stronger reaction if they did objected to the funding itself (not believing it was necessary etc) or objecting to dillution but supposedly that wasn't the issue.
Anyway to my knowledge (please correct me if not) this is all just speculation at this point and all in my opinion based on that speculation.
I cant understand why any commercial deal would depend on us securing additional funding from redmile? I appreciate government grants do but that does make sense as they don't want to give funds to a company to do research who then go into administration or use the funds to stay afloat. But a government grant and a commercial deal are different things. I have never heard of any company licensing another company's ip/tech/product but insisting they have a stronger balance sheet? So don't think that seems likely. Like I've said previously I'm keen for us to complete a commercial deal but will be annoyed if we now complete one before Xmas as otherwise this financing was raised at the wrong time and dilluted more than it should have been.
The only thing that makes me think this wasn't the original plan is that when they did their first investment at 5.5p the bod's stated aims was to complete the first commercial deal within 2 months. Now that hasn't happened (still yet to be impressed by the bod's business nouse) redmile have come in again.
As I have said previously if a deal was done then surely this deal wouldnt have been necessary so I suspect redmiles decision to invest may have been less planned than you think and commercial deals are in the long grass again.
I suspect the lack of activity even tho the oo was over subscribed (which is obviously good news in anybody book) is due to the uncertainty this dispute between ii causes. It also causes people to question motives more? And the market hates uncertainty.
Lochinvarlass I agree they all impact financing but not as much as a deal would or data does for the company. We already have enough money to start the various studies well thats what the rns for the oo in July said and if the results and science are as good as we all hope then further finance will either not be needed in 2 years time or will be less dillutive.
We all questioned when it was announced why now and why so soon when we are already in the strongest financial position since I invested in 2012? And thats what I still want to know? It doesn't make sense.
Lochinvarlass, actually its a good point and kind of comes back to the point I made a week or two back. You said it will be cheaper to secure finance now, why? If our future is as bright as we all hope and if deals are on the near horizon on multiple fronts then our shareprice and finances will reflect that. So whether through upfront payments or milestones we could have more money in the bank within 2 years and not need the finance at all or at the very least the shareprice will be much higher so if we need finance it will be cheaper then to get it now? So it comes back to the question of why now?
When the details were first released I stated that it seemed all deals were off for the meantime as otherwise why secure finance now and it seems an ii may agree that its not necessary at present.
Either deals are off and if so why? Or if not then why secure finance at 13p when even a small deal should comfortably push us into 20p and make the dillution less. Like i said before I give the bod the benefit of doubt that its not mates rates but financing now doesn't make sense with our balance sheet already being stronger than it has been for years?
For information: according to the rns where vulpes converted their clns to shares the new total was 738,591,704 so 5% of that is 36,929,585.2
I dont think we should assume vulpes voted against it as others have said they may have converted in order to get the votes to get the yes vote to around 70%. We just don't know.
Konar,
They haven't lost 1p though. If I buy something at 6p and sell at 12p I've made 6p. If I reinvest that at 13p I may end up losing 13p depending where the share price goes or it may double or treble in price in which I make a profit. But until I sell those shares I don't know if they've made or lost money. The one thing you can say without doubt though is that they've made money on the shares they bought for 6p and sold for 12p (if they do this)?
Equally they do have form for selling and making a quick profit in the not too distant past (which took the shareprice down).
This is a silly discussion really though as at present we really don't know. We don't know why they've converted to shares now, we don't know whether they will sell any of those shares and we don't know whether they will be taking their oo shares.
I'm guessing if they do start selling we're notice soon but hopefully they don't.
The point I was trying to make earlier though was I'm not convinced converting now is necessarily a positive which a lot of posters seemed to be saying/implying. We really don't know at present but fingers crossed it is.
Konar, i understand your point but they haven't lost 1p per share if they sell their cln shares for 13p each they've made 6.8p per share and still own the 13p (oo) shares to make a profit on in the future. So basically the sale of the cln
shares subsidises the new purchase.
Like I say hopefully this is not what they're planning to do but all I was saying was if they are I wouldnt consider it a positive (even if they do take their full oo entitlement as a result).
Konar, I'm not saying that they are doing that and hoping they're not because as I said it would definitely take us below oo price. Somebody else suggested they may be doing this to take up their oo entitlement and they thought it was positive as a sign of them taking up full entitlement (I wouldnt agree this was positive). But to answer your question remember the cln is at 6.2p not 13p is so they could sell at below oo price and still make a quick profit. I hope they're not doing this tho.
I agree something must be going on. As already been said the cut off for the oo was the 13th so can't believe that converting now will give them greater oo entitlement. Equally I wouldnt see this as a good sign if they've bought these just to sell to allow them to take part in oo for their existing shareholding (and I doubt the bod would either) as that would definitely take us to oo if not below and would hardly be a sign of confidence. But considering they had 2years to exercise this and they've done it now definitely suggests to me something is happening behind the scenes. Fingers crossed it is something positive!
Rich, at 5p the marketcap would be £36m which is less than the cash in the bank so you think the ip is actually worth minus £14m. Now I'm the not the most optimistic investor but that's just crazy and I suspect you have ulterior motives for such comments or are just bitter? Anyway time will tell.
Crazy to think that we only have a market cap of about £114m (if Ive done my maths right based on redmiles additional shares) when we have about £50m in the coffers. £64m for the ip of all the other platforms seems low even at our stage. Just my opinion.
Hi Chelsea, quite agree I enjoy differing views and interpretations and although I don't consider myself negative some of my views are less positive than others. But as I always say I hope I'm wrong and they are proven right. Hope you are keeping well
Incase my previous message came across as a little dismissive. Dillution could also be a factor but I personally doubt it, commercial deals looking distant again may also be a factor. Anyway always the chance that Fridays final results have some snippet re progress that may give boost to shareprice?
Its quite common that the share price drops to the oo price in the short term. Last time when the oo was 5p it didn't but that was the first time in any company I've invested in that it hasn't happened and in the multi oo I've had here since 2012. Hopefully it doesnt drop to 13p but imo nothing to worry about its just people either selling to take up oo (free shares) or once oo shares issued simply realising a quick profit.