The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
“..Seem To Be Selling Them @ A Considerable Loss ….” & “..The more that PIs buy at this level, the less Anavio will be able to get..”
Pi’s are still 100% clueless on how the bonds operate.
$140,000 is the minimum conversion fee payment on each bond as per March & April RNS’s. The fee will now have increased with interest rising every Q.
Each bond cost the BH $160,000 & is then converted at the conversion price, which is currently 0.15p.
IF the sp drops to 0.075p (-50%) then the BH only get $80,000 (-50%) from selling the bond.
Currently sp is at 60% of 0.15 so BH will pick up c.$96,000 in addition to the lucrative conversion fee c.$140,000 (plus the interest rates increase every Q). The so can therefore go as low as 0.03p and the BH still breaks even.
During 2023 & it was a fair-to-risky bet as Anavio were still holding. The high risk was all down to AM’s mismanagement. Now it looks as if Anavio have had to implement drastic measures to survive, including a Pi wipe-out, as there’s no way even mug punters could now buy the additional c.16 Billion shares when fully diluted at latest conversion rate.
Numerous on this bb who were upset last year every time the bond equations were highlighted. Zero sympathy but interested in (1) the technicals of the field & (2) interested in how Anavio will get out of this but also interested in (3) at what point the CLN’s turned into death spiral, which imv was AM’s paperwork to the market.
Made a few pennies on your Hur after following the judge and his earlier comments on the bod. Got in c.7p and vacated c.12p albeit the sp carried on further north.
Been waiting for 0.07p here as pure sentiment. Was the initial buy-in price May 2020 prior to it rising to c.0.26p
Dej-vu maybe but its still a wee bit too toxic.
Hopefully Mick the EV figure is still valid. There was though several peeps posting of ‘debt $100M’ albeit those peeps seem to be more focused on emotional inputs rather than any actual best endeavours to assist here.
That EV value c.$56M debt can then be broken down. And it might then be as earlier discussed, that the ‘restructuring’ includes selling one of the fields, & so removing the SL, which might then perhaps see the BFU return to c.1400bopd at 2000psi, sufficient enough to then cover the c.$16M that the BH have spent on the outstanding bonds.
Certainly worth keeping an eye on bud, but still looking a wee bit too toxic.From earlier, the 50M Atlas declared on a TR1 were NOT from a bond conversion but were from a bond conversion fee + interest. There’s a hooomungous difference.
Atlas raised the Tr1 paperwork to announce to market that there is a ‘significant holder’ and then immediately sold, without then raising the TR1 paperwork for going below notification threshold. So a possible ramp via the TR1 to then offload onto mug punters.
‘And Atlas are still holding 260M so not expecting administration’.
They can only post a TR1 so many times, prior to peeps realising it is a P&D. A not so subtle side-shuffle now sees Atlas release their latest ‘significant holding’ on Sedar. And still there are some peeps who are again getting fooled into thinking they are holding.
So how many converted bonds does it then take to generate fee payments of $1.2M / $1.1M ? This was the fee for 5 bond conversions until quite recently and as the interest rate is Not on an exponential scale it can be reasonably assumed that the $1M payment in shares, are still for 5 converted bonds fees.
Needs to be verified but it now appears that each bond conversion fee is owed c.$200k (the above fees being likely owed for 5 bond conversions) with each bond fee now generating c.60M shares.
PK is therefore a Chapter 11 specialist.
That suggests company is seeking administration, with regards to bankruptcy whilst believing it is still a ‘viable going concern’ and so ‘maximising recovery’, which will likely involve debt restructuring (hence why the SL are perhaps making things v.difficult).
Limited experience of Chapter 11 but the judge will get the company (bod = Anavio) to sit down with the Senior Lender and devise a restructuring : possibly some partial sell-offs &/or possibly some new financial package, that could then see the old debt written off via the bankruptcy. As this is being driven by Anavio then it suggests that they might supply the next batch of ‘senior debt’.
Sadly, the ‘industry standard’ for Chapt.11 is for the existing shares to often be written off but on some occasions, the current 100% equity then gets allocated 10% of the new equity base. Eg. new finance arrives, say perhaps $20M, which then gets allocated 90% of the new equity base. The bod may then allocate the remaining 10% to the existing shareholders but often, will allocate it to themselves.
A difficult scenario for existing Pi’s.
Should though Pi’s then pick up 10% of the new equity, then imv that could be on a similar value to the current mkt cap of c.£2M to £3M but with better prospects as a ‘going concern’. The downside is that the bod could & often does, wipes out existing Pi’s in addition to wiping out the old debt.
Without a guarantee from the bod, then Pi’s could make it difficult for the bod by highlighting the rather nefarious business practices that COPL have employed. The judge won’t consider bankruptcy for villains.
Pi’s might have to strike a deal early with the bod, perhaps verifying that they can pick up a % of any revised outcome. Failing any guarantee then Pi’s could easily feed the judge plenty of incriminating evidence. Good luck peeps.
Thanks Tiburn, that’s appreciated.
I’m guessing that the new director is being flown in to either oversee a partial sell, likely the Fed Deep or to oversee the current engineering on the BFU. I was quite dubious since early days on SWP’s skill-sets.
As per your thinking on the new long term time-frames for the bonds (include that the bod can’t cash them in for 12 months) and it does suggest a long play.
Hopefully they get that (imo) engineering sorted but keep one eye open for… shenanigans. The lack of any engineering update, sadly points towards a possible probability of the latter. Take care bud and limit yourself to participating on this bb. All will agree its toxic & ultimately affects sound reasoning.
Earlier than February I guess, as there appears to be a decent amount of flak being sent out to the regulators which will then need addressing… hence directing any correspondence to your local MP and only ‘cc’ the regulators, should then see a swifter response.
SL likely benefits from going into Chapter 7 but the BH could then offer the judge additional liquidity, such that the field still produces, which would then put it into Chapter 11, which is a risky place for senior debt.
90% of the MC but business is inclusive of EV, which then gives SL a heftier weighting.
Chapter 7 perhaps, IF Anavio have a buyer lined up with a pre-agreed price, otherwise Anavio would likely lose out on payment coverage for the outstanding $21.4M in bonds. The SL might go down this route.
Chapter 11 and IF the judge believes that the business is honest, hard-working & worth saving, the judge may then allow the debt to be restructured. And that then puts the SL debt into fairly serious jeopardy such that they disapprove.
Worth perhaps a wee bit more reading into, but simpler to wait on news tomorrow. Good luck to you all.
Technical glitch could be waxing but I thought this was overcome when the flowing valves were upgraded to pumping-flowing, specifically to overcome waxing. As was the addition of heating oil ?
As per several peeps on here and suspect that the GGS has again raised a technical glitch.
Hopefully though not another bbq. There were 7 such incidents reported in the 2022 annuals.
Lol but you are one sick puppy Tradevol.
With respect to filing for admin, if this goes to Chapter 7 it will be because the project is dead and will then see a fire sale, with SL taking the 1st slice then BH getting the next slice. Pi’s will only get entertained should the sale exceed debts. Is therefore a risky move by BH.
More than likely it will be Chapter 11, but that too is risky. In both cases filing under bankruptcy, the judge will look first to see if the debtor’s financial & company reports are without fault. The judge will not entertain a bankruptcy when misdeeds have been occurring…
And will likely query why the FCA took several months longer than usual to accept the company’s prospectus.
Expecting that a conclusion to CoplH’s Agatha Christie might soon arise & that possibly the 2nd CPR report gets published.
Assuming technical difficulties on the GGS (imo is most probable) then, Anavio are in a tight spot, with their 1.3B shares bought at 0.15p for and so needing to download at c.1p to then recuperate their initial CLN costs.
The 1st CPR covered the BF and was estimated by RS that production could rise to 5000bopd. Which was prior to any of AM’s engineerings. That then represents a possible return of say c.$35M (using Cuda’s buy-out figures, reduced for a lower POO) in a controlled sale.
The 2nd CPR on the Fed Deep then entered into ‘cutting-edge-technology being needed’ and for a short while, brought in some interest by prospective partners.
Half-expecting that this report might now get released, primarily to highlight the complexities of the technical challenges but also in part, as akin to opening a Pandora’s Box, which then reveals the obfuscation that AM used, both with retail and likely also the BH.
IF it is seen that AM was deceitful to the ii’s this Might then gain them some breathing space from the SL to either overcome any GGS technical glitches or for a controlled sale of either BFU &/or the Fed Deep.
The above is then assuming that Anavio are staying the course ie that it is technical issues, as apposed to yet further market skull-duggery.
With no explanation being given by the bod with respect to any set-backs on the field or of explanation of the current charge that the field holds, then the finger of probability does rather point towards likely BH skull-duggery.
I think you are on the right track RBM with your earlier ‘bonds to the bod’ being illegal. The other arguments being raised on here are tenuous at the least.
I suspect though that you will be on the losing track, if your only avenue of complaint is then restricted to the FCA.
As per earlier and might suggest that you only ‘cc’ your complaint to the FCA but direct it to your local MP. You then need to show concern of a UK instution’s competence and for the FCA you don’t need to look too far (September’s AMTE suspension by the FCA which then protected the MM & hedge fund as an example). The FCA will then likely promptly react when knowing that their land-lords are watching. Good luck.
“… Do not trust coplherder. He is being paid...”
lol. & so now you understand bud why I have no sympathy.
Talking of foolish cretins, where is the drama queen jiddy and her list of non-conforming Pi’s ?! I would then take it one step further, and suggest that a list of ‘cretinous Pi behaviour’ would be inclusive of every single Pi that then ticked-up her dramas. In summary bud, I have almost zero sympathy. There are though one or two good eggs who did fall prey to AM’s *cough*…. charms. I then sincerely wish that these Pi’s will soon move onto greener pastures.
“… So we end up with a forum not for the weak or naive. Which is exactly what some people are and why we should support them..”
Sorry CoplH., but this I strongly disagree with.
There is no safety margin and there should be none, when considering those who commit acts of stupidity. I am not saying Mr Gooze is in any way daft, but I raised the point that ‘his timing was unfortunate’ the moment the RNS was released of his TR1 [6.5p] only for it to be followed a week later by the sp crashing by c.50%. Mr.Gooze is not the one demanding answers. I myself have been in the same situation, losing several millions and is I don’t expect sympathy & nor do I ask for sympathy. I accept responsibility for my foolish trades (thankfully this has been a good year). And it appears from Mr.Gooze’s silence, that he then accepts responsibility too.
I would agree that the LSE forum needs addressing, that they should take more responsibility of creating a more balanced forum. The fact that it is a haven for trolls & the ilk, then just becomes a part of the learning curve for all Pi’s. Should PI’s then wish to ignore some fairly blatant red-flags, then that is just part & parcel of the nature of the game.
We all regularly make mistakes, and imv this time, it is Mr.T’s turn.