focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Thanks Stas, you are then suggesting that the loss of JV & poor field / poor GGS performance then lies in management under-hand tactics. And that the route to reap the reward of such tactics was then through administration ? Then a future take-over by management hence the need for unblemished records. That though is a fairly hefty risk that Anavio are taking on. They already had access to almost 60+% of the fully diluted equity last year in Q2 and so now, they have ‘throttled back’ on JV &/or GGS to presumably gain an extra 20% or so, whilst AM & Cowan pick up say, 10% each ? It’s original bud.
I posted recently on here the email reply I received from AM c.12 months or so ago, in which I highlighted that I thought he was a strong believer in the project, as per his ‘heartfelt’ [IMO] statement that ‘..no one else could have overcome the problems encountered..’ [in response to my suggestion he put young Liz in charge]. IMV this was a man who believed he could conquer but then failed. For me the major failures are inclusive of hands-on engineering in addition to a lack of responsibility with Pi’s & ii’s (eg. Hadron). So the probability imv is that Anavio have finally awoken, hence bod reshuffle.
I get what you are saying about the need for a ‘clean’ history & of possible future projects. I wouldn’t put it past AM as I suspect he lives for the O&G game & even when at 70+ years of age, that’s nothing to the big oil players.
What’s your interpretation Stas of Cowan stepping aside ? Can see that AM got removed just as the JV was nearing to conclusion and that Cowan was then installed to finalise the deal. That then went south and so Cowan removed himself from the negotiating table. As much as the LTH are trying to blame Anavio, they were up until September offering better terms IF the JV was pulled off.
Now the company has burned thru the October $4M whilst being committed to the gas injection for October & November at c.$500K/month. Now the pennies appear to be directed towards independent engineering consultants..
So all the numerous multiple screw-ups that have occurred since inception of Atomic in December 2020 are all down to Anavio ???
TW knows exactly what the core problem is here :
that AM’s sheer incompetence is sadly not an illegal act.
‘.. who the ‘related’ person/s is..’
I think you’l find that ‘related’ is in a security context ie. that it is the same holder/s which likely are mostly Anavio and that they already had the security clearances. Now the proposal is that shares get issued which are greater than 100% of the current holdings, such that whoever then takes the new shares then has greater than 50% hold over the company, hence the security clearance needed and that the new equity goes to an already ‘related’ outlet..
Can’t deduce much from the meeting other than there wasn’t a significant rush to sell on Friday morning…
Hopefully you recover soon Gordon. Do you remember last July/ August & AMTE crashed at c.3p and you then posted ‘thats ballsy’ in comment to a wild £10k punt ? News of a possible equity raise then came thru & sp hit 12p. Was indeed a wee bit ballsy & so was similar again yesterday.
Last time Anavio changed the metrics on an equity raise, they then did it at a 30% premium to the sp. Just saying…
Some cultures consider it to be a good omen if a bird craps on your head. Which is what the darned pigeon then did from c.200’ above, when it got stopped mid-flight by the pressure wave from the car bomb further up the street in Pristina, Kosovo. A pint in the nearby Kukri Bar diluted any residues.
See that Copl’s filed for a request last night for exemptions under CSE Policy 4, which covers companies who seek a greater than 100% share dilution. Which normally is inclusive that existing shareholder's get offered the same rate (0.15p).
Expecting the exemptions to be given despite the numerous correspondence to the regulators enquiring of Copl’s legitimacy in certain proceedings, courtesy of the known financial distress.
I took it as a positive Stas as the SAG (?!) chaps/chappesses were very likely tied into confidentiality agreements.
Then deemed it as worth a ‘wild’ flutter after seeing strong buying all day and then some support at 0.1p
Had suspected that if it was dead in the water, then would have expected to see a lot more selling.. as word got passed via the grapevine, so to speak.
Was then 7 significant sells throughout the day & hopefully this was the last of the recent Atlas (till next week!).
Guessing your reps are effectively now under ‘house-arrest’ ?
I stand corrected Steve. Cheers.
With your earlier point though I’d once again disagree (wild triple-shot sessions at costa!) :
As I reckon, THE big problem was simply ego and greed.
Had he stayed at 57% then the 2023 field development costs,
Jan $4M + Mar $14.8M + Sept $3M
would have been obtained at a far higher sp and with only 57% reqd.
Which I reckon would then have been survivable.
It’s perhaps a similar problem to us Pi’s. I know I have been guilty on several wild occasions.
Steve, that’s a no.
COPL only paid c.$19M for Cuda.
Cuda’s debts of c.$70M were then lost to its creditors.
Always thought it was a bad move on AM’s part, having Cuda’s creditors take such a massive loss..
Surprisingly it was COPL’s quiet partner who then originally assisted in opening up Wyoming (in partnership with Chesapeake, I vaguely remember?)
Would CNOOC therefore be able to shed any light on the technicals..
“… No doubt someone else will have a go after COPL's demise..”
And so far, the field has cost.. ?
1. Atomic Senior -$40M
2. Cuda -$70M (some related to Alberta)
3. Copl -$135M
Too deep a commitment perhaps as an O&G development?
“…I still think I believe in the asset sham, but it needs a new management, more expertise, and a lot of cash to get the oil out…” Which is perhaps similar to what the creditors might think.
The SL and the BH appear to have lost total confidence in AM and I also suspect a loss of confidence with SWP. If this part-time Pi could feel uneasy with SWP’s earlier performances, inclusive of the very late recognition of what 10,000psi does to B&Q plastic tubing, then it’s perhaps no surprise at all that SL threatens to walk away & BH are now looking for an independent engineering report.
Which then leaves the question, is it salvageable ?
Guessing that the suggested $10M loan (with or without Pi participation) might then be used as a rough guide to try getting the GGS operating.
There may or may not be complex legislation issues then arising. But it isn’t illegal being an incompetent, which is what the historical data consistently points to. The Pi’s though could possibly argue that the incompetence was in part tied into malevolent practices (certainly deceptions). And again there is good historical data.
It might then be in the best interests of the creditors to acknowledge that Pi’s have a significant leaning on any possible judge’ments, should any party seek administration. The judge will then not entertain bankruptcy proceedings on a company previously run by a villain.
IF there is then a salvageable solution to the GGS, it’s likely then interest of the creditors to then cut some slack with the Pi’s. IMO.
Best scenario ? & perhaps a Chapter 11 which sees SL + BH get together with any new engineering inputs who can then resolve GGS (or just return field to its original metrics) say for $20M funding.
The restructured debt of $135M then picks up 90% of the new equity arising from the above $20M funding. And occasionally Chapter 11 then sees the other 10% being allocated to the previous shareholders.
If the SL & BH get together to prevent total loss of $135M ? & it possibly hinges on the western field actually having an interested play as suggested in the RS report & backed-up by the reported interest by JV.
Worth a quick read bud :
‘….Part of the attractiveness of Chapter 11 is that it is relatively easy for a foreign company to become a Chapter 11 debtor. A company merely needs to “reside or [have] a domicile, a place of business, or property in the United States”. The property prong of the eligibility criteria is particularly broad as there is no particular threshold or minimum amount of assets that are required. Bankruptcy courts that have considered the issue have found that even a minimal amount of property, such as the funds a prospective debtor has in a lawyer’s retainer account, in the US is acceptable.
Another important attraction of Chapter 11 is that management remains in control of the company and the debtor continues to control its assets and run its operations as a debtor in possession (DIP), except in extraordinary circumstances, such as fraud or mismanagement of the debtor. This is distinguishable from some countries like Canada and the UK where a court-supervised monitor is typically installed when a company files an insolvency case or in other jurisdictions where an administrator or trustee is appointed to run the company until it is sold or liquidated.
Upon a Chapter 11 filing, a debtor immediately benefits from bankruptcy’s automatic stay, which provides an injunction against actions against the debtor on a purportedly worldwide basis. The automatic stay gives the debtor breathing space so it can focus on the restructuring and thus, all creditor actions against the company outside of the bankruptcy proceeding must cease –…..’
And occasionally, the restructuring then sees the original equity holders take a % of the new revised equity…
PJ, the debt all done with COPLA, outwith of Canada.
Suspecting that the equity raise done at 0.15p will now be cancelled. Anavio / Atlas have recent form fir cancelling financial packages at the last minute & then supplementing a deal with harsher conditions.
Guessing also that the amount needed to resume GGS will be in the region of the $10M earlier requested.
Counterparty enquired of their prospective partner’s debt ?
Then queried how $130M was used in converting a field with avg. 1400 bopd at 2000 psi, into a field that now produces 1000 bopd at 10,000 psi ?
Then further queried prospective partner’s working relationship with the regulators in addition to working relationship with financial supporters inclusive of shareholders. The cascade of dominos effect leading to an au revoir. Via an abattoir.
Reading between the line of RNS & bh looking for £10m which covers an independent engineering report. Can’t see the bh going ahead with $2.5M placing at 0.15p as they stand to immediately lose c.$1.5M. Guessing a small delay and a revamped placing at $10M which likely includes the SL taking a small share. $130M is worth the small $10M hit. The sp though will then be at c.0.01p which would generate 100B shares unless the available reverse split of 1000:1 is used & so only 100M shares arising from a $10M loan (superseding all other credit notices, hence SL & BH).
A Chapter 11 might then see the same RS of 1000:1 and which occasionally then sees the previous shareholders take a smaller stake eg.10% of the new equity..
“…dougb I think you make the classic mistake of believing everything you read in the RNS as being correct and factual..”
Stas, i know you have a fairly sharp memory so just allow me to remind you, of at least 3 posts where i stated that courtesy of the lies AM had posted on the RNS, that i never participated in watching any of his video promotions. Not a single one.
The same was generally true of all the following RNA’s.
I am though currently very interested in understanding what happened to the GGS, so although having skimmed read tonight’s RNA i was comfortable that my initial thoughts that Anavio may or may not have operated in Pi’s interest but that operating with AM that they would be covered on any legal aspects.
I would go so far as to state that Anavio appear to have obfuscated the primary focus (GGS) to happily entertain some peeved off shareholder group who, imv, are waisting time chasing shadows.
The shareholder group asked for accountability and they have now been given said accountability. It then makes for embarrassing reading, or just plain painful for LTH & that Anavio acted within the regulations. The mismanagement and the 5 consecutive raises was not of their making.
Guessing that the shareholders group might be better off changing tack, from looking for someone to blame, to perhaps enquiring what the technical difficulties are. And could they be overcome..