Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Allenby Capital Update 24 Jan 2024
“..Our risked valuation for the Chuditch project is US$190m (0.765p at
£1=US$1.25). This assumes a farm-down in Baron’s interest to 30.0%, GPOS (geological
probability of success) risking and project valuation quotients ranging from US$1.3/boe
to US$2.5/boe. Our success case Chuditch valuation is US$683m based on US$5.0/boe.
These adjusted valuations reflect the new post assumed farm-out from 37.5% to 30.0%..”
Risked valuation will still be a big variable inclusive of unknown route to market, so possibly via FLNG or piggy-back onto Sunrise, which then only needs 50km of plumbing. Sunrise possibly kicking off quite soon, as TL have meetings next week with financiers/developers who recently put together new oil refinery plant in Angola, complete with marine docking. Should then see reduction on risked evaluation, improved volumetric cut-offs & so corresponding increase in value, maybe then several ‘p’ for revised risked valuation ?? IF meetings next week are productive.
And with political & financial mandarins also in attendance, it certainly appears to be a week of news arriving.
Someone kick HFB out of bed, he was usually running hot on the various financial technicals : local fiscal regimes, production profiles, Opex & Capex figures & the projected Zillions. Then gives an idea of some components of the risked valuations. The Allenby Report figures for Economic volumes still don’t account for the Chudditch NE or out lying fields.
And would you care to then create some enhancing value to that… intriguing snippet of information ??
Double dare then?
& that you then name exactly WHO gave away the asset…
At least try to make the snippet… interesting.
“..no further raises..” is a difficult call as it might happen, or as many suspect likely not, & that a JV may pick up the small tab, for say 30% of the field and so offsetting the requirement for a placing.
Timor Gap received an absolute bargain, having previously paid c.$600M for a similar size 40% share of Sunrise. As highlighted previously, the TL funds are running very low, hence the suspicion that TL have supplemented the meagre sized cheque & possibly provided a sweetener eg. a partner to come onboard.
“… january 30th, the head of state will sign the business accord ceremony between sundagas and timor gap p****ria in the timor-leste coastal region..”
On completion of the signing, then should see the cheque for $1M get moved across the table.
A very very minute, almost paltry figure, in the overall scheme, which then imv suggests there was quite a decent sweetener that came with it. Perhaps TL have got a significant other-half waiting in the wings, hence the talks next week with an oil refinery FEED developer..
lol but half expecting some director buys to come from that wee cheque ?!
A wee bit excited on next Wednesday’s meeting, as spotted by Filthy : “… on the 31st of january, there will be a meeting with gemcorp capital llp and altus group regarding the existing and potential investments in timor-leste..”
For reference…
“..Cabinda Oil Refinery Angola : Other development details..
..Gemcorp completed the front-end engineering and design (FEED) on both the Inside Battery Limits (ISBL) and Outside Battery Limits (OSBL) components for the project.
The ISBL area is dedicated for the crude distillation unit and merox unit of the refinery, while the OSBL area includes the tanks, power and supporting infrastructure.
The company also completed the initial design of the conventional buoy mooring (CBM) system for which it received a licence in May 2020. The design includes three export lines, of which one is reversible to facilitate crude imports. The CBM will also allow large Suezmax-size vessels to service the oil refinery…”
Should be an interesting week.
Next Friday’s BBC Hardtalk interview could be quite enlightening, perhaps showcasing Horta’s oft expressed frustration at global green ethics v economical survival.
Only then becomes ‘hardtalk’ when one is going against the grain ?
Following on from his meeting the day before with some real-estate agents & the refinery financiers.
Gemcorp the financiers with experience in the setting up of a new refinery :
https://www.gemcorp.net/news/angola-s-oil-refinery-can-strengthen-public-finances
Cheers bud, 2024 shaping up to become very good.
Suspecting we will perhaps lose 50% of our current holding on a farm-out, then resulting in 30% of Chudditch which ain’t too shabby.
Both these stocks should kick off quite soon. AB appears to be playing the political spectrum over the next week and will then hopefully get recompensed for his efforts.
These boards are indeed for all opinions, both poor & good. If you then fail to understand what classifies as ‘poor form’ with respect to posting negatively immediately prior to the market opening, then that’s a self-induced folly, that fools know one but the poster.
UPL is indeed also expecting good news. So why wet one’s pants and then recommend that the poster Pinocchio should be green-boxed, when all that he/she is doing is highlighting the obvious ie, the required waiting period between directors buying & directors posting good news….
Poor form across several boards.
“.. The reason the SP isnt moving is due to placing fear….”
Very poor form though, when posting of perceived possible negativities on a stock being ‘allegedly’ held, and posting those negatives immediately prior to the market opening. Very poor form bud.
One could just as easily talk of ‘the impending time’ it will now take for UPL to post their next RNS, seeing how they just released an RNS stating director buys. You then can’t reasonably expect any decent &/or ground-shaking news within a few days of an RNS highlighting directors buying ?
Personally and any thoughts of a placing are misplaced.
Cavendish Sept 2023:
“- Valuation: We maintain our post farm-out valuation of Baron at cf90m or 0.45p/share (0.92p/share on a pre-farm out basis), 5.6x the current share price. Unrisked, we value Baron at c£615m or 3.0p/share..”
Trying to remember, was this the same Cavendish report which highlighted ‘can provide 10% of the UK’s LNG requirements’..
Interesting week coming up, with TL head honchos in UK
Appreciated Crofton. Thanks.
If MM’s reckoned there was sufficient market then would be price increases followed by tree shakes.
Suspecting though that peeps are still cautious of Alex’s priorities ? Initially chasing rare earths, then chasing copper, now chasing…
Guessing though that Mr.BHP will now have top priority, on Alex’s latest.. priority list.
Lol, but is very true Mr.S, i know nothing in comparison to HFB and Filthy.
Albeit, i doz know the name of the helicopter service provider that provided the coverage during the initial developments, a decade or TWO ago. And who still operate around the Indonesia region, with the O&G players mentioned below by VisitTimor.
But as yet, we still ain’t on their list of clients. Guessing though we will be getting penciled in.
Lol, but that then could easily be rewritten :
“…Filthy…, roughly at what stage does the pain in your… head… become too much that you have to announce you’re leaving this bulletin board? I wouldn’t want to miss out on all the plaudits and heartbroken posts. Usually a week before you miraculously recover, ego reinvigorated to assault with more of the same tired and exhausting posts…”