The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Given the strong and exciting rise here over the last few months I can't believe the lack of fuss and nonsense on this board. Glad it's not just me who's wetting himself with excitement!
Not saying the cash balance will turn out to be a fraud as such. Just that at some point before any potential payout of cash to shareholders it will turn out all to have gone, perhaps along the lines of "ooo we needed to spend it all to keep going while our website was down". Or whatever...
I wonder, when it all shakes out, whether there will turn out to be any actual cash? Or rather, I should say, any actual cash *left*? I'm guessing any remaining cash pile will magically disappear long before Pis get so much as a whiff of it...
JQW.com appears as I write this to be back up and running?
So River & Mercantile have just upped their holding in QP within one of their OEIC funds, taking them over the 5% threshold. I did a fair bit of research into R&M and their fund managers before investing in one of their OEICs, and I concluded that they're a pretty shrewd bunch. So I'm pleased to see they like QP - I do too.
@Monty: "not a top 500 used website in China" What is your source for this please? Because Alexa (a pretty respected source for website rankings) is currently showing jqw.com is ranked 172 in China. This is well down from a couple of months ago, but the site is currently suspended...
Those are nice numbers, if INL posts results anything like those projections it should spark a lot of interest at these prices I would have thought.
Thanks Bazzaman, that article was really helpful. Based on what I've read so far I'm minded to participate fully in the rights issue.
He's a nipper, but seems like a sharp enough cookie. I do agree though that the BOD don't appear to care much about PIs at the moment. Not necessarily a problem so long as they continue to do what they're good at - making lots of money - but at some point they will need to face up to the fact that if you want anyone to remain invested in your company, you need to share some of that money with them.
Nice to see what could be the beginnings of a sustained move north this morning, glad I grabbed a few more before the price rise but still very good value IMO
Haha, as I say below I already hold some, so overall I'm glad to see the rise. Just ruing a missed opportunity. I'll keep an eye on it and top up if it falls back towards 65, otherwise I'll be content to see my existing holding here rise.
...today's rise adding to my self-kicking woe. Is today's rise perhaps reflecting market speculation that TTR could get snapped up in the current gaming industry M&A frenzy? Or just a return to sanity?
Hi Bruce I already hold some, bought at quite a nice price, (albeit a bit more than 55p), having done initial research and concluded that this is a good one. But then the SP dipped to 55 recently on the back of general market panic, nothing about the company had changed to suggest it was no longer a 'buy', a little voice in my ear was saying 'fill your boots at this price' but another slightly louder voice was saying 'what if this is just the start of a three-year bear run?' Which of course it may yet be, but I could have made 15% to 20% just on a 2/3 day trade if I had just trusted my instincts. As you say though, we've all been there, and everything is of course easy with hindsight or a crystal ball. Also as you say, this is still an excellent buy at this price.
"Am I brave enough to convert cash into shares (in any company) at the moment...?" Well, I wasn't. Fear is an infectious thing, and a sea of red across my portfolio deterred me from relinquishing any cash at that point. At the when I wrote that, the SP was 55. As I write this three days later, it's about 65. Damn, damn, damn, damn.
Any share can only rise for as long as people are prepared to buy it. So for those holding at the start of the day of the big rise - yup, the 500% up mark would have been a good time to sell. Others here will have bought on the way up, some of them close to or at the top. Some for good reasons, others for less good reasons, but all were needed to sustain that 500% rise. Right now any of those buyers still holding will be considering whether or not their money is gone for good, or whether there is still potential here for break-even or profit. I'd imagine none of them finds your post very helpful.
I'm not sure what ownership stake Northfield has in its 250mW portfolio, but I'm sure it won't be anywhere near 100%. Landowners, partners and other stakeholders will own a significant chunk of that portfolio for sure. So MAC owns a 26% stake of whatever percentage of that 250mW portfolio is actually owned by Northfield. Still, not to be sniffed at. And then there are the other pies in which they (MAC) have their fingers. Lots of potential upside IMO.
OK, just to pick up on a few points covered in the latest RNS: Only £850,000 net assets - just clicking the 'fundamentals' link on this page would have told you that at any point. October CfD auction postponed with no definite revised date given - this was announced in July: http://www.edie.net/news/6/Contracts-for-Difference-CfD-2015-auction-postponed-by-DECC/ What a CfD for low-carbon electricity generators actually is: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/electricity-market-reform-contracts-for-difference Stanford solar project still under appeal - as it has been, I believe, for some months. "...there is potentially significant additional value in Marechale Capital's investments, including Northfield, which may be realised above their book value there are significant risks involved in achieving this." Risks? Well, obviously... So the only new bit of info in the RNS is that planning permission for the Desborough site was granted. That's, errm, good news. So, on what basis did people who invested on Friday and then sold today invest and sell? What news were they actually hoping for? For info, MAC's mcap is about £2m at the current share price. So, stripping out the value of existing assets and ignoring everything else, that attributes a rough valuation of around £1.15m to a 26% stake in a consented 50mW solar project. Using a ballpark installed cost figure for a project like this of around £60 million (I believe the typical installation cost-range for an installation of this type and size might be from around £40m to around £70m - correct me if I'm wrong), and a valuation multiple of 3.3m euro per installed mW (source; Deloitte, 2014), that would give an installed value to this project (when completed) of around £120m at current exchange rates. Let's take the difference between the approx installation cost and the eventual installed value - that gives £60m - and take a 26% chunk or it - that's over £15m. At this stage though, everything hinges on the financial viability of the project - the 'strike price' that can be obtained for the electricity generated. Winning a CfD auction would help, but even that isn't a guarantee of financial viabilities - several projects which had won CfD auctions were shelved this year because the strike price agreed turned out not to be commercially viable. Presumably Northfield are up to speed with this and will keep investors informed of developments in due course. And once again this is nothing new. In the meantime, if you're holding here at a loss then you might want to consider that this is down to the irrationality of investment markets rather than due to fundamentals.
OK, some back-of envelope calculations: JQW current MCAP: £14.3m (source; LSE) JQW net profit before tax for calendar year 2014 at current ex. rates: £21m approx (source; JQW final results) JQW net profit after tax for calendar year 2014 at current ex. rates: £15m approx (source; JQW final results) JQW cash position in 2014: £40m approx (source; JQW final results) JQW paying users as at 2014: 241,000. At a nominal (conservative?*) per-user value of $100 (£64), the value of their user base would be around £15m So... On a valuation based on a 4x multiplier of net profit before tax, we have a valuation for JQW of around £60m, giving us a share price of around 30p or more. On a valuation based just on last reported cash position plus estimated (conservative?*) value of paying users, we have a valuation for JQW of of around £55m, giving us a share price of around 28p. Conclusion - we are either holding shares in one of the most undervalued companies on AIM, or we have been suckered. Fear of being taken for a sucker seems to be the main reason why market sentiment is currently giving JQW pariah status among most investors. But as has already been pointed out here, there are some strong and tangible reasons to believe that JQW is what it says it is. So, JQW, if you're reading this, what can you do to re-establish trust and convince AIM investors, many of whom are on the other side of the world from your centre of operations and many of whom do not read or speak any Chinese languages, that you are really worth around four times plus more than your current SP suggests? Well, one word - dividend. * based on a rough average valuation published a couple of years ago of users on the biggest social media websites (FB, Twitter etc). OK, JQW isn't Facebook. But we're talking here about paying users, not Facebook's majority non-paying users. And we're ignoring all of JQW's non-paying users, which obviously have a value.
"I'd like to see them committing to pay a percentage of profits in dividends - say 25%. That would be 2p a year would put a rocket under the SP." Hear hear. And by no means impossible - it's not like they're of cash.
"...independent verification of the company's existence..." And I think in that short little phrase you have neatly encapsulated the reason why the SP here is currently so low. Who would invest in something that they're not even sure exists?? Some decent investor comms from the company on a regular basis would be a great start.