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Owls, I agree with you about "timing" as ALL stocks are either buy OR sell opportunities depending on where they are in their cycle. Also, HOW a stock is traded (whether short term or LTH) dramatically alters the trader's perception of the stock. There are other factors that have a bearing on our decisions like whether or not we use TA to guide us. If you check the weekly chart for OCDO from mid September 2020 to mid February 2021 you will see a classic "double top" pattern which in TA is a very bearish indicator indeed. Subsequently, the succession of lower highs and lower lows only helped to back up this view until, in the week beginning 17th January 2022, the stock's trend (officially) finally changed to "Down trending" and we are still trending down now! From a TA perspective Ocado has been screaming "STAY AWAY" for some time now to everybody other than short- term traders though there is hope as it is strongly suspected by some (me too) that the week beginning the 10th October 2022 was the bottom. Since then we have pulled back up from 380.40 and don't look like revisiting that lowly mark. I think that, if you take the macro into account, now is a good place/time to start investing in OCDO. One by one the headwinds will be removed and the global **** storm we have had to endure over the last 3 years will abate. OK, I'm an optimist but nothing lasts forever right?
Expecting a great TS tomorrow and real heat in the SP - fly baby fly!
BHP ticks all the boxes atm and the charts seem to show that we are rerunning the same upward movement we experienced a year ago whereby the SP moved from around 2100 up to 3000 but this time starting from 2438 or so - will this hit 3300 by mid march? Let's hope iiiiiiiiiit's..... GROUNDHOG DAY!!! GLA
*should read..."This foray into the low 20's..."
AOK, I wouldn't read too much into the changing hands of shares as there are ALWAYS conflicting views as to where the SP is headed and varying degrees of patience of those who hold them! I would agree that we have hit some kind of bottom though, as that is what the charts are telling me. There is still room for this to head down to the next support level (ie 20.07 approx.) but, thanks to the recent comments from OPEC re: predicted supply for 2023, I don't think so. This foray into the low 22's might just have reached it's nadir and, though I'm not expecting an immediate snap back to 25+ I think that it will soon become established as the general direction of travel over the next 4 weeks or so (I'm crossing my fingers AND toes as I write this ;0). Charts aren't always good at some things but indicating a change in momentum IS something they are good at and that is what I'm looking at right now.
Stupmy, I would agree that if the present support level (22.70) does not hold today 20.07 (6th July close) will be the next level at which support should rally. I have not given up on the 22.70 yet though. For those who don't use TA just to explain that although we have breached the 22.70 today that was only intraday. The breach will become fact if there is a candle close below that point ( and even then it would need to be a substantial one ie 22.55 or lower). I was taught that support/resistance levels are "zones or areas" not "specific numerical values" so if we closed today at 22.60 I would still seek confirmation tomorrow with the SP continuing to drop. The zone vs specific value argument has advocates on both sides and I fully respect your view if you belong to the latter camp it's just the way I have always approached it.
Romaron, to answer your question RE: ENQ risk rating. I have my own weird way of rating companies as the company rating in my mind is strongly affected by exterior forces ie POO (which in turn is being affected by a certain nutter in Moscow or the Chinese unwillingness to trust their own Sinovax vaccine or lose face by buying western ones!) or the economy generally.
I would normally place a small oily like ENQ in the Medium risk section because the sector (O&G) is especially well placed to jump once geo-political headwinds have abated. The reason I am treating it like a High risk stock is BECAUSE of those headwinds. It seems logical to assume that the war won't last forever and we are being told that China is beginning to reappraise it's covid policy so things can/will move quickly once the dams are broken - that's when I will adjust my rating of ENQ (and with it my trading approach). I am trading the range at the moment (short-term trading holding for each rise anywhere close to current range resistance) having bought 3 times and sold twice in the last 3 weeks (to answer YOUR question jeffrey1979). I may sell again next week though it depends whether I think the breakout is imminent or not (the closer I feel we are to the breakout the less likely I will sell). I take it that you and most here are LTH's? I would gently suggest to those of you who are to remember to take profits now and again as, if you don't it's just an exercise in watch your money go up & down!
Hi Romaron, I'm very much "old school" when it comes to trading. I bought my first shares at the end of '86 in Thatcher's Big Bang or rather my mum did for me ( I was working in Germany at the time and I used to send my money home for her to bank for me). It wasn't until the internet took off that I got into it in a bigger way. I am always telling people to read as many books on trading as you can as by "standing on the shoulders of giants" you can see a long long way! (bit corny but accurate I think!)
Much of what I learned in the TA course I did decades ago I don't use now but some things I do. I had to learn "to trade my personality" the hard way making mistakes along the way but now I have a varied PF that has 4 sections:-
Low risk (long term holding) = 40% of PF
medium risk (medium term) = 30% of PF
high risk (short term/day trading) = 20% &
cash + 10%
rebalancing the PF every 6 months or so the best I can. When I started trading online I bought low risk slow movers that bored me to death and led to me selling and making a loss. Some people have the glacial patience of a Buffet and some have the attention span of a gnat (these are born daytraders). I found that I liked a bit of everything - that was "my personality" so I bought a few of each section and built it up. If you are impatient, I found, don't focus on your Microsoft shares focus on buying and selling OCDO 3 times a day as THAT will "bring the excitement"!!!
TA IS flawed I would agree but if you approach it with the mindset that some indicators are very good and some not so you can find thru trial and error what works well and what you don't need to worry about. Often indicators give conflicting signals and experience will tell you what to heed and what not to. I mentioned that there is a lot of things in TA I no longer use but some things (MACD,RSI,STOCHASTIC & MOVING AVERAGES) I use daily and probably always will.
I can't comment on the new chairman BTW as I don't know enough about him but hopefully he will do a good job.
Krakenoil, you have me scratching my head here! The trend that a stock, index or commodity is considered to be in is worked out using the WEEKLY chart NOT the DAILY! This isn't subjective as THAT is the ONLY way to do it. This has obviously come as news to you but at least have integrity enough to admit that and ask a question or two rather than try to bluster past the obvious truth (and it is fairly obvious to everyone) that you are wrong.
TA may seem like black magic voodoo to some of you but there is great value in it, as I have said before. It can be used in a multitude of ways but the very first and most important lesson I ever learned was "The trend is your friend" as, if you trade upwardly trending stocks you have a much much greater chance of making money just as conversely investing in downwardly trending stocks can get you hurt. TA gives you information that ALL technical analysts can see so when a stock is giving out screaming BUY signals they can see it and act on it and get the jump on those who think that the trend is worked out using the daily charts!!!Think about it, my friend and don't let your ego lead you by the nose. If I had a penny for every stupid thing I ever said when I was a young bloke I'd be a multi-millionaire by now!
...nor the non-bingo players,J24!
January24, hahaha you (and your wife) seem to have a masterly grasp of TA. ;0)
Krakenoil, You don't use the daily charts when working out the trend - you use the weekly ones! If you apply the 200 period moving average on the weekly chart and note whether the latest completed candlestick (last weeks) closed BELOW the 200MA line then the stock/index/commodity is in downtrend. If the commodity (as in this case) closed ABOVE the line then it is considered in uptrend.
Hi Auson, The answer to your question is: That it greatly depends on where you are drawing your lines, of course!
If you are drawing your "upper trend line" (on the top side of the wedge) from the weeks high in the week beginning 7th March 2022 running thru the 6th June and 7th November AND your "lower trend line" running thru 31st Jan 2022 (nearest point on the line to your upper trend line starting point then 26th Sept 2022 and yesterday 5th December then the pattern is very definitely a descending/falling wedge pattern and a breakout to the upside is expected (if I had to guess January sometime!). Hope this helps.
BTFATH1, I agree with your assessment of a breakout but it is more likely to come 2-6 weeks from now though. The weekly MACD is still pointing down and the daily has yet to complete it's downward trajectory. The weekly Stochastic IS below the 20 line and is about to turn upward which is my main reason for supporting your (breakout) view. For those unsure about the Stochastic indicator it is very good at predicting a change in the direction of the latest trend or, in this case, for signalling a breakout. As there is no reason that I can see for a major breakout to the downside that only leaves one possible outcome (famous last words!!!). Things will become clearer over the next two weeks or so but that is as precise as I can get it without risking looking like a complete fool when the opposite happens haha! Happy trading.
Stupmy, may I first say that there is a whirlwind of news at the moment which is definitely causing movement in oil-based company SP's. Which is a very good thing as "where there's movement there's money" as an old friend and fellow TA student once told me! It makes things a bit confusing but certain home truths always hold true eg when a stock is range-bound - TRADE THE RANGE! Right now (and for the last few weeks) ENQ has traded in a range of 22.70 - 25.05 so buying at current prices (sub 23 as I write) would not be a foolish thing in my view (I have done so myself though this is not a trading suggestion to others).
When we have this kind of confusion it helps to view your charts as a means of clearing away the clutter of mixed messages. Hope this helps.
Krakenoil, just to correct you. Brent is in uptrend not downtrend and has been since the week beginning the 1st February 2021!
Stock/indices/commodities are considered to be trending upwards when there is a candle close above the 200MA on the weekly chart (as Brent is at the moment) and in downtrend when the weekly candle closes below he 200MA line.
Hope this helps.
Prediction is always a bit of a mugs game (and yet we all do it!) but as I am as big a mug as the rest of you here goes:-
ENQ SP for EOY = 25.78
I also predict that I will marry Beyoncé and win 4 rolled over Euromillion jackpots in 2023!
Hoping for a Happy Happy New Year! (for me anyway, you mugs are on your own!) ;0)
Stupmy, my reading of the present situation is a fairly positive one. We have been range-bound for the last two weeks or so but we are not going to stay in this 22.70 - 25.05 range for very much longer. ENQ is over-bought on the daily MACD and other indicators point to the stock moving up and out of this sometime in the next 6 weeks or so. If I had to guess why I would probably say the the OP is going to move up and carry the SP with it in the new year but well will see. Either way it is a good little stock to have as part of the PF. Happy charting!
Krakenoil, the charts don't predict what events will happen but rather they show how those effected the SP. With momentum indicators like the MACD, RSI & stochastic with the help of Moving Averages the charts can show when these life events have driven the stock into a state of being "over-bought" or "over-sold" which can indicate to a chartist that now would be the WRONG or RIGHT time to buy or sell. Knowing whether a proposition is trending up or down can only be down correctly with Moving Averages (without these you are just guessing) and buying stock in a company that is trending down will get you hurt 8 times out of 10.
I have been reading charts for over 30 years now and find the knowledge they render invaluable. I don't understand your mentality, my friend! Don't you believe in getting all the help you can when it comes to trading? I know I do!
Fingers crossed, Chilting!