The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
One last word,Pixar (and others) don't let the rampers try to convince you that the situation is rosier than it is. Oriole is a company with potential but that is all it has at the moment (the "crux" interviewer said the same thing) and if you want to check that you only need to check the current SP because THAT is the ONLY indication of worth that matters to traders/investors. Bibemi is NOT atm the site of a "valuable resource" at least THAT is not indicated. It may be that, but no-one knows at this time so don't let the rampers try to tell you otherwise. The results have shown that there IS gold at Bibemi but what they have not shown in the maiden drillings is whether the gold is in industrial quantities sufficient in size to interest one of the big boys yet and may never do so. This may well be a case of "much smoke but no fire" and THAT again is not what you will hear from the rampers. I always feel I have to "put the other side of the argument" in order to balance out people like that so don't think I am "pushing an agenda" here. I completely believe that the current SP is heading lower which is why I sold this morning. I believe I was just as correct in my view this morning as I was 6 weeks ago when I sold at 1.07 when these same rampers were saying the same thing then that they are saying now (the SP has subsequently halved and will continue lower from here in my view).
I may well get back in if there is reason to do so but I do not see that reason now. If I am right the SP will continue to sink lower if the rampers are right this will be at 2p by christmas! You have to do what is right for you,good luck!
That's ok,m8. It makes me an easy target for rampers but I don't respect people like that anyway. I will probably just make my points today and then recede into the background in the future. I have always thought that if I don't own the shares I shouldn't comment and that's the position I will take up again.
Completely agree,Legalwolf! Companies (like countries) will always act in their own self-interest. Eventually IAG will have to pay up if they have to but I doubt very much whether things will be straight forward.
Pixar,I bought a small packet of shares in Oriole yesterday with a view to "trading the anticipation". I was hoping to make a quick £300 or so on Thurs/Fri but the results came out today and haven't exactly "blown the bloody doors off" so I have sold this morning (read my previous posts). I don't usually comment on stocks I no longer own but there are some people on this board I get on with and I don't want to see people hurt by the market if possible.
Hi EWT98,my take on the situation is this:-
IAG are convinced that Senala is going to be part of their future and they have been convinced about this for years - that's why they went into a JV with ORR to begin with and the "poking & prodding" ever since has only confirmed their interest which is why they have spent the money they have on it. If it wasn't going to be "a goer" they would have moved on some time ago -THEY HAVEN'T. So, we can surmise that as far as IAG taking Senala off ORR's hands at some point it IS a question of WHEN not IF. The question for investors is then WHEN is this potentially going to happen and all we can go on is what Tim has told us in previous interviews. EWT,do you think that Tim's assessment was wrong and that IAG are NOT playing the long game? If so,my friend, I would dearly love to know where you are getting that?
Investors WERE disappointed last March with the results that came out of Senala but that was not the only reason why they were disappointed (and a little disillusioned?) it was the fact that the ORR BOD did not update us on the shortfall by IAG and people start to think "...can we trust these people to be straight with us from now on?". The shortfall will be made up in this year as we know now so all we are losing is time but my point was that with either disappointing news or no news at all the SP sinks and sometimes (as I think JTB said the other day) it is better to sell up at least partially now at this price and use the money elsewhere with a view to buying back in when the price is significantly lower. I did this myself when selling the last of my ORR shares @1.07 on the 13 May! If you think that there is a high chance that the results from Senala will be spectacular then hold, if you think that any other outcome is more likely then (partially) sell - time will tell which of us is correct.
Hi JTB, yes if you watch the "crux" interview they (Tim & the interviewer) start talking about IAG and their interest in Senala at around the 25 minute mark from memory. Tim had a wry smile on his face when he said that ("...IAG ...taking the long view on Senala..."). Plans can change of course but I took from that interview that either IAG will not make ORR an early offer but will take much longer to "get off the pot" so to speak).
Kutzz,believe me when I say that being "the voice of reason" is a real pain in the ass sometimes as it would be nice just to dream like everybody else! I have always had my radar switched on to "high intensity" when viewing possible threats to my investments so seem overly negative sometimes but I have always thought it better to be as dispassionate as possible as decisions based on emotions tend to be the wrong ones with me (with women it's not always the case as they can be very intuitive - but i'm a guy!). Learning to handle fear/greed isn't easy for some and can lead to major setbacks in the market but taking a more "Vulcan" approach has always served me well! I don't get that worked up with profitable OR loss making trades as "both are imposters" I remember a line in "Billions" where Bobby Axelrod says "...a good trader makes a trade and feels good. A great trader makes a trade and feels nothing - DON'T GET HUNG UP ON THE EMOTION!). I hope you are successful with your ORR investments - LIVE LONG AND PROSPER!!!
For those that are way over-invested in ORR I would advise taking the opportunity today to sell the "top-up" shares you have bought while the SP was down at 0.55 or so because THAT is where the SP is headed again shortly.as I read it. I posted to JTB yesterday about the "partial sell" strategy and it might be time for some of you to employ that now! It's up to you! I have sold the small packet of Oriole shares I bought yesterday and made a loss of about £24 so I am breaking my own rule right now of not posting about a company AFTER I've sold but If I can help people with solid advice I will always try to (although the cynical will question my motives).
There are some on this board that are still positive and hopeful when it comes to Orioles future and I won't deter anyone from investing in this company for the LONG term as I'm sure things will work out fine in a few years. In the short-term however,the SP is going to go down as THAT is always what happens once the euphoria drains away from interesting news. Some are hanging their hat on the results from Senala being great but Troajan & I had a chat about this about 4 months ago and we both agreed that it was not in Iamgold's financial interests to "drill down the middle" so to speak as it would vastly inflate the price that they would have to pay Oriole for taking it off their hands,this is why they are just poking and prodding around the edges with their drill programs. On the bright side (if hope is your thing!) IAG COULD make an offer for Senala in the new year Jan/Feb as the JV agreement expires on the 3rd March 2022 but,as Tim told us in the "Crux interview" IAG are "...taking the long view with Senala..." it is more likely that they will renegotiate an extension so that they can poke & prod around the edges for a few more years!
So,what does the short-medium term outlook for ORR look like? We are into the rainy season right now so no more work will be done until it is finished (ca.October) therefore nothing to report that will positively impact the SP and we all know what happens to ORR's SP in that situation! There are those of you that have repeatedly stated here that you have all the patience in the world and that you don't mind waiting years for this investment to ripen, so my words here will have no impact on them (and I wish them well) BUT those of you with shorter time horizons would do well to view their investment from the perspective of RESCUING the situation!
I know that the rampers will attack me for saying this but I don't care if it helps some of you to at least partially extricate themselves from this. I,originally,sold my ORR shares in April & 13 May (on the last spike higher @ 1.07 or so) as I was sure that the SP would go down - IT DID! IT HALVED! I am not saying that ORR is a bad investment in the long term but this company has a long hard road ahead of it and I prefer the motorway,sorry! There are easier ways of earning money than this - IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE ORIO
JTB,I agree with your previous post when you said that sometimes you just have to sell and make a loss but I would add that utilising the "partial sell" is also a good strategy ie if you own £100,000 of BP and the stock price drops on very bad news you sell 20% and use the money to invest in something else that will start making money for you. If the BP SP recovers then you really haven't lost much and if it continues to sink you have another string to your bow that can be used to buy up more BP once it has bottomed.
Re: Hunniford - I don't think he is aiming his frustration at you. Having too much exposure to companies like Oriole is akin to "cruel & unusual punishment" and those engaged in it need to be sympathised with not clouted around the ear! Imagine having your testicles remorselessly squeezed for 7 months you'd be a bit testy too so have a little empathy, my friend! ;0)
Kutzz,the prudent thing would be to invest your money in more Oriole shares today with a view to "trading the anticipation" ie buy today sell within the next 2 or 3 days! if you are sure "in your water" that the results are due Thursday or Friday then sell these "new" shares just before in order to make a quick buck 10% of £15k will keep you in stellas & hookers for a few days ;0). Might I say that you are already over-invested in this company and the shares you own right now will benefit from good results without risking any more money.
Fitzy66,I think that it IS possible you could be right but it is also the case that the results are highly expected to arrive THIS week and the SP WILL ramp up until they do! I,myself bought some earlier today as I see this as a "no-lose" situation! I can hold until the results arrive or sell later in the week and make a small profit. I think others will climb aboard the bandwagon as the week progresses!
I have just bought a small packet of shares (466714@0.6825) as I think the SP will continue rising until we get the results and if THEY are great this will probably triple,we'll see. GLA
Hi Richy22,As you are relatively new to the market and how to trade it I will do the same here with you as I have with others previously in suggesting that you read books written by those with far greater experience than I. I have always viewed study as an opportunity to "stand on the shoulders of giants" and it helps you to develop ideas and strategies for avoiding making the same mistakes they did. I have a number of books on my shelves but there are some that I am always perennially re-visiting and some new ones that encapsulate old ones but in a more condensed fashion. Here are 3 to begin with:-
1. Trade your way to financial freedom by Van K. Tharp
2. The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther &
3. The Little Book of Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager
The last one is quite new but is quite helpful as you can easily dip in and out of it. Hope this helps,enjoy your trading.DS
Just to make things clear,Richy. Your candlestick patterns were a direct result of the SP moving higher. The Rise in SP was as a direct result of people taking a punt on next week's results from Bibemi being good/great NOT because the valuation of ORR went up overnight from Thursday to Friday as - IT DIDN'T! Your argument is,therefore,"built on sand" not logic.
I have studied TA for the better part of 3 decades now so do have some experience of it and use it everyday in life. Might I suggest that a combination of different indicators AND fundamental analysis (which will give you a much needed "macro" view) helps. If you narrow your view you will get a distorted picture. Hope this helps.
Hi Richy22,May I gently say that candlestick patterns are not a good indicator of future price movement! Technical analysis is of only very limited use when it comes to "news driven" companies like Oriole (or RMM for that matter). The SP movement (downwards) over the last 3 or 4 months has been mainly due to over excitement by investors followed by results which were NOT what they hoped for ie "blow your socks off great".
As to whether ORR is a buy right now I would argue that TA will absolutely NOT help as the only thing that will move this higher is good results from the Bibemi drillings. I cannot even begin to calculate the odds as to whether the results will be good,bad or indifferent next week(?) (I leave that to others) but Legalwolf hit the nail on the head last Thursday when he rightly predicted the SP rise we saw yesterday ( "... Sp action tomorrow should be interesting. Will we see a bounce on expectation of news next week?..."). This triggered your excitement in the candlestick patterns but the situation is a false one and very very misleading. I suggest that if you want to take a punt on the results being very good - do so! But don't try to say that the tea leaves are aligning in Orioles favour atm because that just isn't the case. We had some people taking this punt ergo SP rise yesterday but the SP didn't go up because of anything substantive - only hope and HOPE + $2.50 will buy you a coffee and nothing more! Hope this helps.
Hi Troajan & Leathal, Just to be clear I wasn't saying that the current downtrend WILL continue and that the SP WILL definitely go down to 22-23 only that without "good news" to send it back up that THAT price area is possible (if not probable) as previous support levels are usually good rally points for investors to get back in if they've sold on the way down. I don't know the fundamentals with RMM and,for all I know it could start getting support very soon - you guys will know the situation better than I. If I were looking to get in to this stock I would first examine those fundamentals to see whether there is a likelihood of a rebound and, if so, whether to wait until the SP gets down to that S/L or whether to get in now.
They say that trying to "time the market" is a fools game but knowing when to act is usually the difference between making money at this or not. As Kenny sang:-
"...You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run..."
Enjoy your weekend.
Hi Troajan,I don't know RMM very well (it's fundamentals I mean) so cannot comment in too much detail but purely from a TA perspective there is nothing to stop this going down to 22.5! It hit 22 intraday back on the 19th Nov and closed at 22.5 on the 25th Nov and without "good news" to drive the SP back up again that's probably where this is headed,I'm afraid. Again,I don't know the situation regarding this company but that's what the TA suggests.
Personally I try not to "top-up" on stocks I own too often (maybe 2 or 3 times per year max) as I figure that the cash I have on-hand can be better employed investing in faster moving entities that can generate money quickly (and with THAT profit it is possible to "top-up" my wallowing slow movers if I wish) BUT if you currently hold RMM,Troajan, topping up if it gets down to 22-23 would probably be a gamble worth taking because that seems to be a strong support level. If you think that good news is "on the horizon" then you may want to add but if this is just one of those companies that is in a death spiral - stay clear! Hope this helps.
Hi EWT98, hope you are well.
Hi Troajan, be careful of RMM as it may not have bottomed yet. It is in downtrend in both the weekly charts (the one I use to gauge which direction a stock is trending) and also the daily chart too. The daily is showing that the stock is oversold as is the RSI but that doesn't mean it's hit bottom yet. There are a few factors to take into consideration when deciding whether the bottom has been reached (I watch the volume carefully to check whether capitulation has been reached usually) and I don't think it has yet. Trying to "pick the bottom" is a treacherous pastime and is akin to trying to catch a falling knife - and you know what happens if you try to do that! Just my opinion which seems to be worth less & less these days!
Hi Leathal,I have just noticed your post to me (I checked the site yesterday only to read the RNS but not the posts). Like everyone else I am hugely relieved that we have been updated about the reasons why little news flowed re: Bibemi drill assays. Now that we all know that there were power-outs and that the labs were badly backed up we can understand why there have been no updates. Yesterday the pressure cooker finally let out some steam! Tim, if you're reading this - this info could have been imparted to shareholders much earlier (which was what some of us were begging you to do!).
Anyway, I am glad that the SP is finally heading north (more for others on this board than myself really as I had paired back my holdings in ORR). The markets are becoming easier & easier to make money with now as the world comes slowly out of the self-imposed hibernation we have had to endure. We are in for boom times globally over the next few years as the party will begin once the virus is defeated and people will "party hearty" believe me - I envisage something akin to the 1920s!
No, unfortunately things have not improved at home (and will not I'm afraid) but I am in the "acceptance" stage now so am not raging at the world anymore. Speaking of which I have to get ready to go out so hear from you later,Dogstar.