Member Info for Dogberry101

But who will fall off?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOIN26bRtH4

Cadet
I read through the details it does not mention anywhere how much the stuff is going to cost to make, I appreciate that aluminium is cheaper than copper but there will be processing costs and graphene costs. There are other better electrical conductors like silver but they cost a lot more. Also I did not see any mention of electro magnetic performance so presumably none so no good for motor windings.

It appears that copper mining in Cyprus has thousands of years of history and the Roman empire was supplied with copper from Cyprus so there has to be a lot of tailings lying around. There does appear to be a small fly in the ointment in that some of the **** heaps are scheduled as ancient monuments

Battery tech is coming along in leaps and bounds there seems to be a new battery every few weeks what they seem to be more reticent about is length of time to commercialisation and more importantly cost. If you want cheap batteries (and we really do need cheap batteries) the materials need to be cheap and the manufacturing process needs to doable at scale.
This is why the Tesla 4680 cell is so important and IMO will be around and in use for at least the next 10 years.

AMG
Elon talks a lot and tweets a lot and may appear to tell all, In reality he teases and very rarely do we hear enough and hardly ever do we get details. Case in point the Giga press we heard that they were going to get one for model Y rear castings 2 per vehicle. It transpires that a special alloy was developed by Tesla for use in the Giga press. Later I hear that a bigger press has been developed and that IDRA the manufacturers had several orders from a customer and then Giga presses started appearing at Tesla factories.
From what I can glean the use of the Giga press will enable Tesla to make vehicles a lot more cheaply and with a much smaller factory footprint far fewer robots and workers.

Smalltrader
You have to manage your investments in the way that you are happy or at least content with. Now that Tesla in in the S&P500 I think there will be less volatility in the price so good luck with buying any dips.
This year will I am certain be a bumper year for Tesla for the following reasons: that we know.
1) Shanghai is now pretty much up and running to optimum performance.
2) Freemont is running very well and high margin Model S and X plaid versions will sell like hot cakes.
3) Berlin is on schedule and will be in production and ramping up very quickly by year end.
4) Austin Texas in zooming along 24/7 building works and again will be in production and ramping up by year end. Cybertruck will be made in Austin and IMO it will astonish and amaze everyone and delight shareholders with the simplicity, ease and more important low cost of
production.
Now for the reasons that we don't know - for certain.
1) Full self driving and the autonomous car I think Elon has been sandbagging on this and we are much further along the road than many suspect - IMO Tesla will reach FSD by the end of this year regulatory approval may take us some time over that but I would put a small wager on at least 1 US regulator approving use of FSD at least for testing and evaluation by year end.
2) 4680 batteries IMO the most important breakthrough announced by Tesla ever. I have not heard much from or about the Kato Road factory for months so I think it likely that production is coming along well (again I think Elon has been sandbagging on this)
3) Production of Semis starting before year end and there being massive demand.
4) New factory being built in Shanghai - what will it be used for? large scale production of 4680 cells? Production of the much talked about China designed and built cheap car?
5) Tesla India will they just be building solar panels and batteries for the grid and big companies or will they produce the cheap Tesla mainly for export?
So much happening and about to happen.

Smalltrader I think you are regretting your decision to sell already.
I started investing here at $280 in 2019 after watching the company on and off for years. I have done pretty well out of it and I have sold out on occasion only to buy back in sometimes winning on the deal (sold January 2020 and bought back in in March) and other times lost a little buying back in, I have also sold down to balance my portfolio.
So what have I learned research pays off the media is rubbish and must be ignored. The concerted efforts of short traders I find very encouraging, the more they squawk the more worried they are and with good reason collectively they have lost over 30 Billion dollars here.

Mongooser PGMs are essential for green energy transition really?
Perhaps you could enlighten me as to where they fit in because I cannot see it Copper and nickle I can see that Lithium and Neodymium I can see that. I understand that most of the use for Palladium and Platinum is in catalytic converters in ICE engines hardly green energy.
Also isn't Eurasia located in the middle of nowhere in Russia hardly a jurisdiction noted for green credentials

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTYZJ3NsCkA a Tesla bear gives some perspective on media treatment of Tesla and some other interesting stuff.

JWD
Tesla does not need the 4680 cells I believe at present they are not currently using these cells in production vehicles and even when they are making lots of them I doubt they will power all Tesla new vehicles for a long time. The 4680 is fully developed and tested and is being made at volume in the Kato Road facility. IMO Elon has been sandbagging on this saying it will take some time to optimise production I think Tesla is much further down this road than they are saying. My understanding is that the 4680 cell IP has been made available to Tesla suppliers so that they can also make these cells even so I believe Tesla will growing so fast that they will not be able to source enough 4680 cells for years so they will continue using the older cells and also the Lithium Ferrous Phosphate cells for quite some time.
As for competition what competition Ford Mustang MachE well they can only make 50000 this year (unlikely to be able to source batteries and power trains for more) Porche Taycan have sold around 20000 VW expect to make 5 million EVs by 2028 when I expect Tesla will be making more than that every year.

Now I understand you are still steam powered and everyone else has moved or is moving to electricity.
What I do understand is that two more huge factories will be opening within weeks and up and running by the end of the year. And dare I say it full self driving (level 5) by the end of the year

First quarter financials out yesterday and I think they look pretty good.
For a deep dive and analysis have a look at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7ZghEMiGiI

An interesting well reasoned bull case particularly liked the company comparison with Amazon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSUNLyzzvWU

Chump
The number of miles driven per accident is constant it makes no difference if you have one vehicle or ten million it is the number of miles driven divided by the number of vehicles.
This particular accident has some very strange details it occurred on a cul-de-sac with no road markings meaning that FSD would not engage (Elon has said that FSD was not engaged) the two people in the vehicle ended up one in the passenger seat and one in the back seat. The occupants were 59 and 69 years old. The vehicle hit a tree at speed and the vehicle caught fire so not much physical evidence left at the scene.
Some speculation be bandied about concerning drink driving and the possibility that there was someone else driving who left the scene after crashing.
I love your bit about greedy guys sounds like the pot calling the kettle black.
Incidentally there are numerous other outfits attempting to solve FSD some in small groups of companies some not even auto manufacturers some allegedly have autonomous vehicles already operating.

Chump
If you have to be winning it will take an awful long time.

Koffee
They have a lot fewer accidents with FSD activated they are 8 times safer. Equating to one accident every 4.5million miles.
I am very interested in the latest fatal accident it appears there was no driver at the controls which means that FSD must have been activated and some cheat in place to fool the vehicle safety system concerning hands /pressure on the steering wheel.

Peck
The last figures I saw for pre-orders was 730,000 and this was some months ago, the Austin factory where this will be manufactured is coming along in leaps and bounds (24/7 building works). This is not a conservative pick-up truck by any stretch of the imagination and I think it will have limited appeal with leisure owners IMO the appeal is as a work truck with contractors and people who need to move stuff where the low running costs and very high utility value make it a no brainer.

An unabashed Tesla fanboy makes some very interesting points.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngTe-CnAs8I
Chump maybe you have a lot in common with Jim Chanos and Gordon Johnson.

Chump
Sandy is not trapped in the legacy auto industry if you dig a little you will find that he has been involved in state of the art engineering from working with the US Defence Department, Aircraft manufacturers and even NASA down to to Chinese factories producing domestic appliances.
His stock in trade is disassembling products and producing reports detailing materials suppliers and costings which are then sold to anyone who wants to buy them usually rival manufacturers.

Some interesting and useful insights from Sandy Munro in a presentation to motor industry insiders with comments from Steven Ryan this is the stuff that convinces me that my confidence and investment in Tesla is safe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKu0OFJPdvA
Sandy Munro is the leader at Munro & Associates a company which specialises in tear downs and costings of engineered products (everything from Military Aircraft to Microwave ovens).
Steven Mark Ryan is an entrepreneur and millionaire (mostly made from investments in Tesla).