Member Info for dividendchaser

kitsz i have done a lot of trades during the past 2 years i like to invest in ftse 100 companies and choose to invest after a cpmpany has fallen in value but that is a dangerous game sometimes you get the bounce other times the company falls further so you have to wait for the company to recover which usually happens but not always guaranteed i was also recently invested in vodafone the broker forecasts are great bought at 198 sold at 198 the company debt was a concern to me ever since they have been falling i get my information from articles in the motley fool they are right on some companies wrong on others reading bulletin boards which can also be dangerous as you can give a lot of respect to some people on there who can be persuasive about a companys merit who sound clever but really they know no more than you broker forecasts and reading company reports and trading statements i like to invest in builders because it is something you can relate to and because of their landbank their net cash position also the fact that there are a lot of supportive govt policies to aid buyers like htb stamp duty tax relief for first time buyers but maybe i was not mindful of the fact that when the housing market turns for the worse the builders will be left with a lot of unsold houses also they will have to write down the value of thier land this is the reason why the pe is so low and they are offering fantastic dividends it is not free money after all that is something i have found out to my cost at the end of the day i have found that it is all about pure luck if you can time a trade right and you alone have to make that decision to trade

by the way i bought tw in june so in 4 months they have lost 40p per share equivalent to 2 years worth of dividends

kitsz rampers like sunset777 markbell uk are very sensitive if you do not agree with their price targets of 650p and above for bdev if you try to be more realistic and try to introduce some honest debate they accuse you of being a shorter shows just how immature they are the problem is less experienced investors can be taken in and lose money this was the case with me at tw i know i only have myself to blame but the board was full of rampers going on about tw 5 year plan and dividend of 18p per share for the next 5 years and share price would increase i was taken in bought at the top they have been on a downward trend ever since and have lost 40p per share from 191p to 151p

kitsz i am just pointing out the massive fall in the share price i am also heavily invested in here and have suffered large losses in tw having bought at the top i just feel there is more downside volatility now with housebuilder shares any bit of bad news there is a big markdown in the share price while the upside volatilty is limited i feel monday is crucial to get a positive start otherwise if the sentiment is poor again a lot of stops will be taken out in all the housebuilders

one billion wiped of mcap since the payment of the special dividend this loss shared between the shareholders of tw big and small i take issue with many people saying these are only paper losses you are only kidding yourself and you actually only get your money back if the shares recover to your buy in price not an absolute guarantee

i have a feeling it will open lower monday go sub 150p to take out a lot of stops at 150p

interesting that david thomas director of bdev sold 114000 shares at 694p october 20 2017 price now 491 over two pounds lower

the yields now being offered by national housebuilders are now like junk bonds they carry a lot of risk

more worryingly the number of transactions fell by sixteen per cent on a monthly basis that really spooked the market and there was a mass sell off a lot of people will have been stopped out the intraday chart did not look good closed on the low of the day people are really worried the housing market will crash which will send builders share prices crashing i am afraid the broker forecasts are too optimistic the question is do these have further to fall or is this fair value now bdev yielding nine per cent now tw twelve per cent monday will be interesting

psn director buys over 250000 pounds worth of shares today why does not redfern do the same

what was the reason for todays fall as when there is good news the share only rises about 2p but when it falls they are big falls

you rarely see a 3p rise or more in tw but a fall of 3p or more in a single day happens regularly feel it will breach 150p next week

close to a twelve per cent yield now junk bond status

thanks for your advice bamps i recall you told me of the dangers of having all my money in one stock a couple of months ago

tom they are down about one per cent less than tw and bdev but tw is the biggest faller today no surprise

it is surprising that berkerley and persimmon are doing much better than tw and bdev

hello tom i am also heavily down will wait to see if i can get in at a cheaper price either bdev or tw

yes tom the sell was big but the intraday chart was not looking good and thought i would cut my losses

just sold out of bdev at 501p a loss of 19p per share

i have said before redfern was wrong to have the grand five year plan of increased dividends of 90p per share over 5 years since then the share price has lost 36p 2 years worth of dividends in redferns grand plan