RE: Expectations14 Aug 2019 08:45
Berenberg have increased their target to 200p.
I believe that these types of shares come around once every few decades, we had RKH and GKP which were good for the first few years in terms of return on investment but got bogged down in amongst political turmoil following a war, contract disputes and for Rockhopper a declining Oil price and lack of Major able to fund development given the high cost of extraction and development.
I consider Eco to offer similar returns on investment but they will be sustainable, as this world class asset has a $25/30 break even point given the attractive PSA agreement. Respective security in abundance from the shear fact that the likes of Exxon, Total, QP, Hess et al. are present.
Yesterday it was discussed that with a total of 15 prospects likely increasing to 26 prospects to target in a block adjacent to what can now be considered as 16 drills and 14 consecutive discoveries, the high COS due to the fill and spill theory being proven makes this one of the last world class exploration frontiers in the world.
So to consider the Cos, number of prospects in comparison to other small E&P companies, the low cost of development and appraisal when considering the quality and porosity of the discovery contributing to low drill and development costs. It has just about everything going for it.
So do I believe given the initial discovery that ECO is now fair value, No! Why? Well given the above and I really could keep going, throwing numbers at this to support my argument such as 4 billion barrels. JL-1 has exceeded expectations and we await a technical update that will upgrade best case estimates and provide further detail on the API etc. Currently, the market is attributing no value to Hammerhead which in itself could be worth 40/80p following unitization talks. If you dig a little deeper than the CPR and done a bit of in depth research you would find out why. We then have all these remaining prospects and amazing 3D data that has come in on prognosis with Total’s supper computer to boot. No value attributed to this stock for any other prospects outside JL.
Now I recognize this is a different market to 2010, but when the market truly wakes up to this opportunity like the institutional investors that are currently accumulating and the private investors that have sliced a deserving profit given the risk they had taken, 200p is just for starters.
GL all.