The fun is only just about to begin (AIMO)29 Jan 2020 19:49
Share register rebalanced
Fantastic results today, and while these results were expected the main news today is that the market seems to of filtered out some of the traders and profit takers which was really good to see. Too much hot money is not necessarily a good thing, a sustainable long term uptrend is far more appealing.
Funding
Recent director purchases would have provided a base to the current share price, as for Allis to have continued to build a sizable position in the company knowing the companies forward cash position, surely if a sizable placing was planned he could of just participated in that. It is also worth noting that the CEO has insisted in the past that the company cash burn is very little following the expensive phase III trial which should see the company through to approval.
Strategic partnerships
Today’s read out is a key milestone for the company to enable it to enter strategic partnerships which in itself would resolve any funding concerns.
NDA
Monday this week I contacted investor relations to help clarify priority FDA reviews and Hatch Waxman. I am waiting a response as it was implied that Richard was very busy this week and it may take a couple of days to reply.
Conclusion (in my opinion)
Imo something significant is being worked on in the background that has led the company directors to build on their own position in the free market. Allis will be only to aware of the potential of this company following the sale of Blue Earth D which means that he has unfinished business in building a more significant stake in POLX.
Relatively low forward cash burn enables the company to go into the next 18 months with a relatively clear path to market which can give current shareholders certainty about forward dilution. To consider a small raise would not be the end of the world but I think the company will naturally clarify its forward position in the not to distant future. NDA application, strategic partnerships and further sale of goods for research purposes (funding through grants, which enables the company to have a clear view of forward order book), will all contribute towards future funding and will be significant share price catalysts as it’s the unknowns that the market will struggle to price in. Between now and FDA approval, the free float will continue to shrink which will intensify and future forward moves.
I have seen many stocks that have seen a continuation of an upwards trend in anticipation of FDA approval over a longer period of time (STX) and also over a shorter period of time just before FDA results. I see no reason for this to be any different, other than the fact that this is a computer v computer which will help increase the probability of success. None of which is currently priced in, but prior to what could/should be FDA approval and commercialization would see a market cap in excess of £100m which in itself is a share price of 87p or a 270% increase.