Member Info for Diversified

Look at the future and the performance of open markets being risk on, perfect storm brewing!

Beware of those trying to talk it in as they will aiming for a quick entry!

97.2 to 116.5, let’s fill those gaps

Leppington - the brewing arm accounted for only 15% of 2019 underlying profits

Fair dealer, I agree with much of what you say. But, while they sold some assets bellow book value, the brewing business was not sold at a discount but a premium and as such the net asset value would of increased.

Institutions will anticipate the dividend being reinstated. 40% of a stronger brewing business is worth more than 100% of an asset that was undervalued within a chain of group assets and is now stronger within the combined distribution network and strong product mix.

We have many on twitter shouting about shorting this at 59p and were stopped out, many will want to take a position and will hope that this doesn’t gap open. What we do know is the market was caught with its pants with a late afternoon Friday RNS. Don’t expect market makers to make the same pricing mistake again as it gets ready for the market to open.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03733535

To add that JD weatherspoons has only lost a third of its value from its all time high, a comparative performance by Marston’s would see the share price above 90p alone. That should give you a benchmark of how the market values a deterioration of revenue in this sector.

Undervalued is an understatement.

According to the RNS, discussions were initiated last year. In addition to offering cost synergies and a stronger portfolio of product to maximize sales within the combined distribution network. This deal has unlocked the inherent value of its brewing business.

When looking at the accounts it’s net asset value (after liabilities) is £957m, taking into consideration the equalization payment of up to £273m reducing its debt, I think you will see an increase in net asset value due to the reduction of debt.

91% of its pubs and tavern business is freehold property which was not included in the deal. With debt secured against the freehold property at low sustained rates of interest because of the respective security, this arm of the business that contributors 85% of its underlying profits remains undervalued.

I have no doubt that a return to operations will see a reduction in operational performance, but with the government furlough scheme, business rate relief and natural reduction in non performing assets to further reduce its debts. I have no doubt that now the concern about the company that led to the share price underperformance has been resolved, it will not take long for the share price to return to pre-crisis levels, regardless of reduced revenue as the company finds itself in a securer position.

12 months from now and assuming their is no change to the current structure to FDA approval, we would be approx 2 months away from the most important milestone in the companies history.

We would be operating in a pulmonary function/imaging sector that is estimated to go into a honeymoon period of significant growth due to COVID19, and various other catalysts such as:

- Additional polarizer sales
- Bracco Imaging strategic partnership evolving to include approval for Europe
- Astrazenca Phase III complete around the end of May this year, awaiting read out
- Big Pharma collaborations
- Ramp up in commercial recruitment infrastructure

Remembering this is not a biotech but a diagnostic company that would of carried out a pre-NDA meeting to further reduce risk as it competes against outdated tech.

So many variables when it comes to valuation, but given what would be a high growth company following FDA approval with a P/E likely to be well in excess of 20, a market cap of £150/200m is by no means unrealistic for a fully funded company between now and approval.

When considering the profits generated in the Covid sector to date by many investors, it’s not unreasonable to assume that some of that money will soon end up here!

With a low float due to a strong shareholder register, patience will be rewarded!

The positive being that they will take a large number of shares at the price which would imply they are very comfortable to consolidate here before the next more out and a likely intraday breakout to come

Another 250k and Peel Hunt are being cleared out, watch for when the flip on L2 and the rise will resemble more of an upwards trend like Avct yesterday

I think regardless of if we get an update on the pre-NDA before the end of the month or not. When we get the final results this month we will have some forward looking statements that should be of significant interest.

Interesting to see confirmation of significant growth in the pulmonary function market worldwide over the next several years:

https://www.biopharmapress.com/lung-function-tests-devices-market-to-witness-significant-growth-worldwide-during-2020-2027-profiling-key-players-bd-carefusion-mgc-diagnostic-ge-hill-rom-perkin-elmer-carestream-health-cosm/

COVID19 would be a contributing factor as it has emphasized significant underinvestment in that part of an unloved sector in both function and imaging. Timing of commercialization couldn’t be better as emphasis will be put on patient aftercare management plans following infection. We are also seeing a significant increase in pulmonary treatments that are due to come to market.

You know my thoughts, I don’t know if it is confirmation bias or good timing but I believe the ducks are lining up nicely.

If you want shares you have to pay them right now, bounce coming!

Given the fact they will take over 150k in one trade, looks like pretty resilient support and in line with the uptrend yesterday, ignoring the spike.

I would not be surprised to see it turn blue.

They will take well of 100k for me, this is stronger than it looks, probably in anticipation of an assault on 25p

26.5p

When you look at the valuation of others in the same sector, CWR, PHE, ITM, it doesn’t take much imagination to see what happens to the market cap of a company that gets it right.

25p close

Looking at the reported time of the trades, those late reported trades were all buys, thus the rise!

Given the strength a close towards 25p is not unrealistic and then tapping and heading back towards 39p 12 month highs is a strong possibility. The earlier posts that discussed the resemblance to the last move is more than possible, if not a likely outcome.

Been watching L2 for a couple of hours now and L2 is very strong. Doesn’t seem to be much up to 22p now and a strong finish should be expected.

Some serious buying going on, of which most will be reported via delayed trades.