RE: So peoples targets31 Mar 2020 08:31
Broker Target - 360PToday 00:09
From last weeks broker note:
The risk/reward profile, given earlier evidence that SNG001 has a beneficial in vitro effect in MERS and SARS coronaviruses and has been shown to be safe and well tolerated in asthma/COPD patients, is skewed significantly to the upside, particularly given the potential for first revenues in 2020. Not only would a positive trial help to address the current COVID-19 crisis but it could enable governments to stockpile a broad-spectrum antiviral product for future pandemics. We introduce a 120p target with potential further upside. [...]This would rise substantially on a positive COVID-19 trial result.
Market opportunity : It is clear from the equity market’s positive reaction to COVID-19 clinical events; for example, from Gilead Sciences (+$11bn on the start of a 1,000 patient Phase III trial of remdesivir) and Fujifilm (+£3bn on positive data from 340 patients in China of faviparivir) that the market potential is enormous. With c.1 in 6 coronavirus-infected patients becoming severely ill, the potential number of treatments rises into the 100ks, creating a potential $1bn+ product opportunity.
£1.25bn peak sales. Given the size of the market, peak sales could be substantially higher and the sales curve could peak much sooner than our model indicates. Indeed, we could see first sales in 2020 if the proposed Phase II trial has a positive readout. Moreover, the rNPV would be materially different if governments saw SNG001 as a broad spectrum antiviral treatment that should be stockpiled for future pandemics.
Successful completion of the imminent Phase II study (SG016) implies a rNPV of c.£475m, which would imply at least a c.£360m (240p) uplift on the current estimated NPV.
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