RE: IF3 Dec 2020 23:01
MCB55
I don't think you need to worry about debunking 50p takeover claims. I agree with you that interested parties will stand back . Since RT's departure with stories of blood on the carpet there is complete uncertainty over the reserves and the capacity to maintain flow rates, so if a party were to come in with an offer of say 12p and the board recommended acceptance what would that say about the boards expectation of the companies future prospects. If you look at it from the point of view of a potential bidder an acceptance recommendation of anything less than 32p is going to look a bit dubious as it is effectively saying to the fund raising shareholders we, the board are not confident that we can produce a better return on your investment and what does say to the bidder?
Despite prior warnings of a material downgrade the Technical update of 11.09.20 was shocking and given the sp movement not what the market was expecting. The next announcement of how they intend to proceed will be critical . In the last substantive update (08.10.20) they said "As disclosed in the interim results announcement, the Company intends to engage with all key stakeholders regarding its forward work programme, capital allocation and financing arrangements in light of the revised reserves estimates for the Lancaster field and challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The Company is making good progress on a proposed work programme and will provide further updates when appropriate." but with no indication as to when. In the meantime all we can do is watch for production clues and w/c. It is really a case of fingers crossed.