RE: Major upside may come from FO part of the other 50%6 Apr 2023 14:19
Note from finncap:
Jersey Oil and Gas PLC’s farm-out deal announced earlier on Thursday is worth more than £4 a share, according to research from finnCap.
Describing the partnership with NEO Energy, one of the North Sea’s big operators, as "exciting news", the corporate broker then goes on to forensically break down the ultimate value of the transaction.
NEO is getting 50% of the Greater Buchan Area, 120 miles northeast of Aberdeen.
In return, the private equity-backed oil producer is handing over US$33.9m in cash payments, plus a US$12.5mln "carry to take the development through to sanction".
There’s also a 12.5% further "carry" on the Buchan development, the broker points out, the finnCap analysis reveals.
With initial phase development costs estimated to be up to US$1bn to first oil, this places a US$170m, or £4.17 a share valuation on the farm-out, the broker concludes.
It added: "The transaction leaves JOG fully funded to FID [final investment decision] and sets a floor price for future transactions.
"It provides a route to development sanction and first oil, with the opportunity to add further value through additional farm-out transactions.
"JOG has a 50% remaining working interest in the project and will look to cover its 37.5% share of the development costs through an additional farm-out(s), with potential non-operating partners waiting in the wings."
Ultimately, management is aiming to retain a 20-25% carried interest in the project, finnCap reckons. It has set a £6.60 share price target, which is more than double the current price of £2.75.
Exciting times for JOG. Great partner. Floor level is set and a further farm out would add to that and then realisation to first oil. Who knows what might happen on the way as a further bonus?
Well done to AB and the team and Board of Directors.