Member Info for dgbell7

It looks like the discount to NAV is widening here with the GGP price moving up recently and SVE down. I’ve been topping up both. I hold about 30p’s worth SVE for every £1 of GGP I hold based on current values and I do think eventually we are going to see a significant narrowing of the discount here. SVE has been a great investment for me so far and I’m seeing it as a long term hold. It will be interesting to see what the board do when they do start to unwind out of GGP eventually , whether there will be a monster dividend , some new purchases or a bit of both. Short term widening of the discount just makes it more attractive to me for further top ups.

JohnHenry you are absolutely correct but I'm afraid some posters are just not registering it.
My take on the position is;
1. There is a divergence in valuation both sides of the pond as only here in the UK have we acquired the entitlement to Accustem, the States cut off is Friday. Next week the prices should align as they normally do.
2.The gap in the prices between here and the States shows the valuation at present the market gives to Accustem.
3. I see no evidence of market manipulation. The price here has fallen as we have seen Accustem drop out, general market conditions and people heading for the exit now they have secured Accustem shares. Market manipulation is blamed on all these boards every time any share goes down and I'm not saying it doesn't happen but far more often its just the obvious-more people wanting to sell than to buy.
4. Accustem is likely to be more valuable when the shares are tradable. A lot of traders don't want to be tied up in a stock they can't trade for a few months. there may be some FOMO when the shares are launched.
5. I think the price of Tils should gradually improve and if we get good news from the Brazilian study I expect we will see a big rise.
6. Everyone needs to decide their own strategy and be comfortable with their level of risk. I am not surprised at the drop, in fact its holding up better than I thought it would. I am sitting tight and being patient.

With the turbulent week we’ve had on the markets whimax a drop from £ to £1.75 wouldn’t be outrageous. I am hopeful combined value will be considerably higher than £2 over the next six months and I’m sitting tight on my holdings of both.

It’s not the nominal value of Accustem that matters but the value the market will put on it that matters. The estimate below of 50p as an opening position , subject to any news, seems to me about right. On that basis the overall position is Remainder Tils about £1.25 at present plus Accustem 50p, total £1.75 for those of us entitled Accustem shares. That is roughly where we were about a week ago. It’s all a guesstimate of course but that’s how it seems to me. Now let’s see what news the two companies can bring forth to start adding value .

Key2- this has kept us busy all week and the uncertainty has been very frustrating. You could phone your broker and if they say yes get it in an email before you trade.

There could well be an over reaction in the price drop on Monday creating a buying opportunity for remainder Tils. I won’t be discouraged if we trade sub a quid for a while. However as has been pointed out earlier we usually have a lot of news flow on Tils and it has gone quiet for a while. Perhaps on Monday we will see big news flow and we may not drop at all. Even better if we see an offer to buy Accustem as well! All will be revealed Monday morning. At least it will be so much simpler with the demerger out of the way and we can focus entirely on the two companies’ merits.

whimax you're right it shouldn't be a barrier but i suspect it has been. Americans tend to be a very insular people- a high percentage don't even have a passport- and I think many wouldn't like to hold foreign shares. I suppose we see the same in reverse here with resistance to dual listed shares going to de-list in the UK. Only one factor and I don't want to make too much of it but didn't help.

The way it was set up made it unattractive to US holders. They are being given Accustem which when it starts to trade will only be trading in the UK and Nasdaq listing to follow at some point, if I understand the position correctly. Now why would that appeal to me if I was in the US?

I’m in exactly the same position swervington. The general market conditions this week and the confusion that has reigned over the cut off date for buying sure haven’t helped. Time to let the dust settle and see where we are as next week goes along. A good company-now two good companies- but this process has been poorly handled.

Yes I read it as Friday 430 as well. Could be a decent rally into then although overall market conditions are unfavourable. It is an incredible mess and very regrettable that we have not been able to be sure of last time to buy and first time to sell to hold our Accustem entitlement. Looks like yesterday’s buyers have played a blinder. Could be more twists on this yet.

I can see a possibility that some people are going to end up in dispute with their broker if the broker has misread the situation and given dud advice. Not a position I'd like to get into. It will be interesting to see how this pans out when it comes to the allocation of the Accustem shares.

Old Apache thank you for that thoughtful analysis of where you disagree with my reasoning. If you think Stem is going to be valuable (I do) then you can't expect the price of Stem-less Tils to hold up well initially without some strong news. I expect that when we have Stem floated the combined value of Tils and Stem will be considerably higher than where we closed last night. Anyway we won't have to wait long to find out.

We will see next week the value of Tils without Stem. I would not be surprised if we fall to around £1 initially , unless the board are sitting on a mega RNS. Could be a good buying opportunity for remainder Tils. I can’t see any case for buying at present unless you are nailed on certain you are getting Stem shares since they are likely to be considerably cheaper once Stem has gone its own way next week.

If you are buying today may be safest to ask your broker if you will get Accustem shares, if they say yes ask them to email you that, tell them you will be relying on the email and don’t buy until you have it in writing!

The price action isn’t what many of us expected, myself included. I doubled up last week to give me shares to trade into an expected increase, but I am happy to add these extra shares to my long term holding as I believe that the combined value of this and the spin off company will be significantly higher within 3 to 6 months. In truth the non-event of a last day spurt has done me a favour as I will probably do better holding the lot. It shows that you can never take the market for granted. Perhaps others are taking a different view than the widely held one here that today is the last day to buy. I phoned my broker yesterday and was told I’d have to buy by Wednesday at the latest to be entitled to Accustem shares but I didn’t feel confident in that advice. Well we will see what the rest of the week brings forth, maybe a few surprises.

So putting it another way young buck if someone buys Friday morning they will get the shares in Accustem? That seems unlikely to me. If I sell Friday and you think I wouldn’t get them someone has to get the Accustem share. I have to say I don’t intend to take any chances myself. Any I decide to retain will be owned by me on Tuesday and will not be sold this week. It is a pity though that there should be any confusion over exactly where we stand.

You would think it should be quite a simple thing as to when you can sell to still be entitled to shares in the new company but it seems to be causing a lot of confusion and certainly a lot of comment. Since there will be a share in accustem on a one for one basis there must be a point where entitlement to that share flips over to a new buyer. My take on it, and only in my opinion, is with T +2 I must be the owner of the shares at close of business Tuesday 27th. If I sell on Wednesday 28th I will still get my shares in Accustem.
I nearly doubled my holding last week and these extra shares were bought with the intention of trading by close of play Tuesday, but retaining my core holding. If the price doesn’t move enough I will just sit tight on the whole lot. I had been thinking that by Tuesday we’d be hitting £3 plus but , even with the positive move today, I’m not sure if we will see £2.50 by tomorrow’s close. Could well go absolutely crazy tomorrow though so it will be interesting. Whatever your strategy here GLA .

Short term traders clearly selling today , keeping the price down. Today’s RNS is good long term news of course but a lot of people don’t want to wait. Whatever works best for you , but I am finding patience brings rewards and I expect that here. This could easily double again on strong Covid related news and I am sitting tight .

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-explained-what-we-know-about-covid-19-so-far-zpbdr5wsh
We get a mention here , behind pay wall, should be in the paper tomorrow.
‘ A British drug, made by the pharmaceutical company Synairgen, involves inhaling a protein called interferon beta, which is crucial in the immune response but is suppressed by the coronavirus. In preliminary trials it was shown to have a dramatic effect on the recovery of severely ill patients, but has yet to be validated in the large studies required for medical approval.‘

100% agree, I just keep accumulating and waiting for news. Fundamentals always come through eventually.