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I decided to try my hand at calculating the nav.
Open to correction if I have it wrong!
I have only calculated it on the basis of the value of GGP, haven’t valued the other bits and pieces.
Number of shares in issue 57,573,986. I’ve taken that from the RNS 14/7/20.
Current value of GGP 36.5p .
Number of shares held in GGP 82 million.
Value of GGP holding £29,930,000.
NAV per share (based solely on GGP) 51.9 p.
Current sale price of SVE 26p.
Discount is therefore 50% , and a bit more taking into account the other holdings.
This is a long term hold for me, as is GGP itself.
Exciting prospects for us for next year and we’ll done the BOD’s here.
Got caught at top ups 9.5/10 myself. Sometimes it goes the other way and can explode. I thought the news deserved better and makes me wonder if there’s a placement in the air. Anyway give it a month or so and I expect we will be well above these levels.
Fantastic news here. Topped up heavily this morning.
I’ve been topping up this morning. A very exciting opportunity here imo if , as I do, you think GGP has a lot more legs left .
Thanks Phoebus , as long as you can cope with the sometimes wild swings on price I don’t think there’s anywhere better to make money than with small emerging companies with great futures . Look forward to following this board .
Many thanks JiMiH that’s very helpful. Undoubtedly the spread is off-putting but unfortunately not unusual for Companies of this size. Even with the spread it’s still a massive discount.
Bought in this morning a starter position after looking at a lot of Companies in my favourite zone ( under 20M market cap and strong growth over 6 months). This seems a very promising situation. Always good to be in at relatively early days I think as so much more more for multi-bagging.
It looks like the discount to NAV is widening here with the GGP price moving up recently and SVE down. I’ve been topping up both. I hold about 30p’s worth SVE for every £1 of GGP I hold based on current values and I do think eventually we are going to see a significant narrowing of the discount here. SVE has been a great investment for me so far and I’m seeing it as a long term hold. It will be interesting to see what the board do when they do start to unwind out of GGP eventually , whether there will be a monster dividend , some new purchases or a bit of both. Short term widening of the discount just makes it more attractive to me for further top ups.
JohnHenry you are absolutely correct but I'm afraid some posters are just not registering it.
My take on the position is;
1. There is a divergence in valuation both sides of the pond as only here in the UK have we acquired the entitlement to Accustem, the States cut off is Friday. Next week the prices should align as they normally do.
2.The gap in the prices between here and the States shows the valuation at present the market gives to Accustem.
3. I see no evidence of market manipulation. The price here has fallen as we have seen Accustem drop out, general market conditions and people heading for the exit now they have secured Accustem shares. Market manipulation is blamed on all these boards every time any share goes down and I'm not saying it doesn't happen but far more often its just the obvious-more people wanting to sell than to buy.
4. Accustem is likely to be more valuable when the shares are tradable. A lot of traders don't want to be tied up in a stock they can't trade for a few months. there may be some FOMO when the shares are launched.
5. I think the price of Tils should gradually improve and if we get good news from the Brazilian study I expect we will see a big rise.
6. Everyone needs to decide their own strategy and be comfortable with their level of risk. I am not surprised at the drop, in fact its holding up better than I thought it would. I am sitting tight and being patient.
With the turbulent week we’ve had on the markets whimax a drop from £ to £1.75 wouldn’t be outrageous. I am hopeful combined value will be considerably higher than £2 over the next six months and I’m sitting tight on my holdings of both.
It’s not the nominal value of Accustem that matters but the value the market will put on it that matters. The estimate below of 50p as an opening position , subject to any news, seems to me about right. On that basis the overall position is Remainder Tils about £1.25 at present plus Accustem 50p, total £1.75 for those of us entitled Accustem shares. That is roughly where we were about a week ago. It’s all a guesstimate of course but that’s how it seems to me. Now let’s see what news the two companies can bring forth to start adding value .
Key2- this has kept us busy all week and the uncertainty has been very frustrating. You could phone your broker and if they say yes get it in an email before you trade.
There could well be an over reaction in the price drop on Monday creating a buying opportunity for remainder Tils. I won’t be discouraged if we trade sub a quid for a while. However as has been pointed out earlier we usually have a lot of news flow on Tils and it has gone quiet for a while. Perhaps on Monday we will see big news flow and we may not drop at all. Even better if we see an offer to buy Accustem as well! All will be revealed Monday morning. At least it will be so much simpler with the demerger out of the way and we can focus entirely on the two companies’ merits.
whimax you're right it shouldn't be a barrier but i suspect it has been. Americans tend to be a very insular people- a high percentage don't even have a passport- and I think many wouldn't like to hold foreign shares. I suppose we see the same in reverse here with resistance to dual listed shares going to de-list in the UK. Only one factor and I don't want to make too much of it but didn't help.
The way it was set up made it unattractive to US holders. They are being given Accustem which when it starts to trade will only be trading in the UK and Nasdaq listing to follow at some point, if I understand the position correctly. Now why would that appeal to me if I was in the US?
I’m in exactly the same position swervington. The general market conditions this week and the confusion that has reigned over the cut off date for buying sure haven’t helped. Time to let the dust settle and see where we are as next week goes along. A good company-now two good companies- but this process has been poorly handled.
Yes I read it as Friday 430 as well. Could be a decent rally into then although overall market conditions are unfavourable. It is an incredible mess and very regrettable that we have not been able to be sure of last time to buy and first time to sell to hold our Accustem entitlement. Looks like yesterday’s buyers have played a blinder. Could be more twists on this yet.
I can see a possibility that some people are going to end up in dispute with their broker if the broker has misread the situation and given dud advice. Not a position I'd like to get into. It will be interesting to see how this pans out when it comes to the allocation of the Accustem shares.
Old Apache thank you for that thoughtful analysis of where you disagree with my reasoning. If you think Stem is going to be valuable (I do) then you can't expect the price of Stem-less Tils to hold up well initially without some strong news. I expect that when we have Stem floated the combined value of Tils and Stem will be considerably higher than where we closed last night. Anyway we won't have to wait long to find out.
We will see next week the value of Tils without Stem. I would not be surprised if we fall to around £1 initially , unless the board are sitting on a mega RNS. Could be a good buying opportunity for remainder Tils. I can’t see any case for buying at present unless you are nailed on certain you are getting Stem shares since they are likely to be considerably cheaper once Stem has gone its own way next week.