Member Info for dgbell7

Dutch TTF currently 47 Euros compared to 30 a few months ago. I expect that price to rise significantly in the months ahead but we'll see.

I've come to the conclusion Gusto has a personal grudge against the Company, not a shorter. I don't know if it's even possible to short a Company this size but professional shorters don't spend so much time making inane points against a share . He may be , for example, someone who got the sack from the Company . Never underestimate how much time someone with a grudge (and he may be unemployed with a lot of time on his hands) will spend on pursuing a vendetta! The good news is if (and hopefully when ) PXEN is steaming ahead he will just disappear. I've come to the view that, although I feel a bit sorry for him, there's no point engaging with him any further.

Gusto I don't know if you're short in this or just have a grudge against the Company and/or its Directors as to why you're a Bear on this but if your money is on the line and you also want to "stay safe" then you might want to also follow the pattern- the pattern of what has happened with gas prices and where they're heading. PXEN won't need to do a raise if their revenue greatly increases . The big question is what is going to happen to gas prices this year and I make my own assessment on that by following the Gulf situation closely. If you believe , as I do, that gas prices are going to climb further then PXEN is going to see transformative revenue. The world has a different look to what it was before this war, the Iranians have taken a chokehold on the Straights Of Hormuz, very little is moving out of there now. You're not going to shake people out of here with just an appeal to fear, investors want reasoned arguments. Maybe we'll get one from you sometime?

First a short AI summary of the article in today's Times on the Iran war's effect on gas supply-

"Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar — which normally produces around a fifth of global LNG supplies — has been shut down for over a month following the Iran war. A direct Iranian missile strike on March 18 is expected to keep part of the facility offline for up to five years.

Two LNG "trains" damaged in the attack account for roughly 17% of Qatar's LNG output. These are complex, multibillion-dollar facilities that took years to build; Qatar Petroleum's CEO has warned repairs will take three to five years. Even the 12 surviving trains are unlikely to restart quickly, with analysts estimating full restoration could take until late August at the earliest.

More broadly, the Strait of Hormuz — through which around a fifth of global LNG passes — has been effectively shut down by Iran, with underwater mines posing ongoing risks to tankers. The ceasefire terms around Strait passage remain unclear."

Secondly the take away from an AI calculation of the Dutch TTF price on PXEN's net monthly income (Claude, but run it yourself for the detailed reasoning in Claude and indeed all the others if you want)-

"The bottom line: At €30/MWh TTF, PXEN is generating roughly €320,000/month net — tight but cash-flow positive. At €100/MWh, that balloons to approximately €1.5 million/month net."

I form my own assessment, and keep it under review, as to where the gas price is heading.

The dilution has been heavy The figures I have from asking my "research assistant" are pre-April 2022 fundraise 219M shares, now 433M. However I also asked the market cap pre-April 2022 which was around £5M and it is now £15M. Quite an intricate calculation on the figures and you might want to run the same question yourself and check the working out but it does appear Market Cap is outpacing dilution, at least over that 4 year period. May be a different picture if you take different starting date.

This is an AI summary (Claude) of Goldman Sachs notes-

In an earlier note, Goldman analysts Samantha Dart and Frederik Witzemann raised their April TTF forecast to €55/MWh, up from €36/MWh previously. Investing.com

Then on 22 March, Goldman upgraded again, lifting their Q2 2026 TTF forecast to €72/MWh from €63/MWh, as Europe needs to attract LNG cargoes away from Asian buyers ahead of next winter.

The key supply shock is the Qatari LNG outage. Iranian drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial cities halted Qatari production, with Goldman estimating this reduces near-term global LNG supply by around 19%.

Europe is particularly exposed given depleted storage. As of 24 March, stocks sat at just 28.4% — well below the five-year seasonal average.

On scenarios, Goldman sees a wide range of outcomes: a one-month Hormuz disruption could push TTF toward €74/MWh, while a disruption exceeding two months would likely send prices above €100/MWh. A more severe scenario involving lasting damage to Qatari infrastructure could push TTF above €100/MWh throughout the summer months.

Claude I'd like you to draft me a 150 word posting for a share bulletin board making some Bull points for UK share Prospex Energy PXEN. There's a Bear poster on there who's greatly respected and I think part of his success is he has some great catchphrases that he works into his posts. So could you make sure the following phrases appear - "The Famous Five", "Lmao", "Stay safe" and "Over and out". Thanks so much!

PXEN — Time to Wake Up, Bears! 🐂

Right, let's talk about what the Bears keep ignoring. Prospex has The Famous Five working in its favour right now: producing gas assets in Spain AND Italy, the Viura field production trials building toward steady-state by April, El Romeral back online after the transformer install, the Polish licences (San & Dunajec) adding serious exploration upside, and a CLN raise that was oversubscribed — investors voted with their wallets, lads. Lmao at anyone still calling this a dead duck.

New CEO Tom Reynolds has committed to quarterly shareholder updates and a laser focus on per-share value. European gas prices are surging, energy security is the buzzword of the decade, and PXEN sits right in the middle of it with real producing assets.

The macro wind is behind this one. Do your own research, but don't sleep on it.

Stay safe — and to the Bears... Over and out. 🎯

Here's a short AI summary of the article this evening in the WSJ. I have read the original article (£2 pm to subscribe).-

A US-Israeli war with Iran has disrupted Qatar's LNG production, trapping 20% of global gas supplies behind the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major problem for Europe, which had already switched from Russian pipeline gas to LNG after 2022.

Italy is hit hardest — it relies on gas more than any other major European country, with 10% previously coming from Qatar. Italian PM Meloni rushed to Algeria to secure alternative supplies, followed by Spain's foreign minister.

However, Algeria can't fully plug the gap due to limited capacity and aging infrastructure. US LNG has become Europe's second-biggest gas source after Norway, but Trump's tariff threats and pressure on the EU to sign a trade deal have made America seem unreliable too.

Analysts say Europe will remain heavily dependent on LNG for years — which is more expensive than pipeline gas. Nearly 40% of Qatar's LNG production has already been damaged in the war, keeping prices high.

The long-term solution is reducing fossil fuel dependence, but that will take years. As one Italian energy expert put it: "Our only hope is that Trump can quickly deliver peace."

Oh I've been tempted back for one final comment. Yes that is indeed much better Gusto, I'm moving you up from a 3 out of 10 to a 5 out of 10. If you'd attribute the quotes to show they're real and who said them you'd be moving even higher. I do like the little X's for emphasis. I hope you'll continue in this vein moving forward . If you become serious in your arguments it will make this a better board.

Oh please don't disappear on us Gusto , I need the comic relief. Look, here's a prompt for you to put into AI - "I am attempting to talk down down the share price of a stock on a bulletin board but some holders are not taking me seriously. I have mentioned a lot about the Famous Five but it's not helping. I also tell people to "stay safe" all the time .What suggestions do you have for me to up my game?". Sadly I now have to call time on my amusement here as I am busy but , rest assured, I'll be watching your future posts carefully for signs of improvement.

Gusto I have to say I do find your posts amusing. In many years of reading comments from someone trying to talk down a share I have rarely seen a poorer effort. I have considered you may be setting up straw arguments as you want the price to rise. Anyone who states that the price of gas "really doesn't matter " to PXEN cannot be considered as serious. There are bear points to make about PXEN of course and if you really are trying to attack the share price you'd be much more credible if you put those forward. I hope you don't though as I don't think your posts would be so funny.

Assuming the figures I've obtained are roughly correct my takeaway is that it will need a sustained higher gas price over a period of time to effect the bottom line here substantially. I also think all European countries PXEN operate in are going to be more aware of the need for energy security and that the climate for seeking permits etc is likely to be somewhat easier.

I've been trying to get a handle on the net monthly income to PXEN from its producing fields. I ran this through AI (Claude). I won't replicate it's analysis here-you can ask the same question yourself for that. Summary is based on Dutch TTF prices as follows- at 30 Euros, 340K Euros per month, at 60 Euros , 825 Euros per month and if gas prices rose to 75 Euros , 1.060 Euros per month. I'd welcome any corrections, analysis from anyone who has their own calculation.

From this mornings DT live feed-

"The long-term consequences of strikes on gas facilities

Israel and Iran have been striking targets associated with the oil and gas industry, fuelling fears of a global energy crisis.

But this week, both sides hit facilities associated with the production of fossil fuel energy, marking a major escalation.

Experts believe such strikes carry long-term consequences, potentially years after the conflict.

Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Financial, told the Financial Times: "Something that takes out a few million barrels of production would have a bigger impact because it means there is no way to refill stocks even after the war ends."

Attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities would be the most devastating, he added, because any damage could take years to repair.

Oil prices have already risen following Israel's attack on the South Pars gas field, pushing up petrol and diesel prices around the world."

many thanks

What is your Twitter name ? I would like to join the telegram group

Fraud being going on. Hope no was too deeply in.

the Company hasn't changed since the price drop but sentiment sure has. I thought about selling when it started to drop but didn't pull the trigger which has been expensive. I'm intending to top up but pointless imo until we start to see an upturn

Sadly we are now below both the 20 day and 50 day moving average. I haven't sold as I remain confident here and will consider topping up if we can regain upward momentum.

after a slow start the wand telgram group is getting busier. feel free to hop on board. link is on my twitter feed, @DavidB7000

It seems completely off PIs radar, but it is a gem, one of my best buys in ages