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Wanted to say I for one am massively relieved after the AGM victory yesterday.
I did indeed think for a while it may not have gone our way and was rather panicked by that thought ….had my pad out scribbling down numbers and calculating different outcome %’s ……happy to say that it looks like apart from BHP/Newcrest and probably Blackrock pretty much everyone else voted ‘For’ ….so a great victory.
Eyes on the 9th Jan now for CGP to vote on the merger - much easier one that one to predict - thankfully
Following that merger goes through - how long after the vote will the two companies officially combine - genuine question ? As I really don’t know - a few weeks ?
I think at that point or possibly sooner any arbitrage play between selling Solg (Acquirer) and buying CGP (Target) - will cease and indeed we may well see us lift from these levels and hopefully quite rapidly
I also think the rhetoric through media outlets fed by the CGP team or SOLG leaks could well begin to ramp in the new year ….we are safer now and as such may well begin to bare our teeth a little more
My hunch (guess) is that Jiangxi take the CGP held SOLG shares after the merger - and if we tot their current holding with the CGP/SOLG shares I’m pretty sure we will see a new number 1 SOLG investor (check my maths - especially after my wobble yesterday )
With BHP dethroned and Newcrest going through its own internal restructure - I’d hope that the time would then be ripe for any bigger move by Jiangxi
Anyway have a great Xmas one and all - been an anus horbilus (think that’s how you spell it) for our SP but one can only hope next year will be different for all the right reasons
DG
Cheers Novice, appreciate it mate.
It’s been a tough hold this year - no reason why next year needs to be more of the same though.
Maxit / Sangha / Irwin - all want this sold and done and dusted with now (in my opinion - before I encounter the rath of those with differing opinions)
If Jiangxi are going to make a move I doubt the results of todays AGM is gonna stop them.
Would BHP/Newcrest be able to appoint their own people and scupper the merger before the vote on the 9th - I don’t think so but I’d feel more comfortable if I knew that for sure.
16p is **** ….lower obviously worse. But surely just a sweep with the RNS pen stating we are up for sale could correct in part our SP and maybe put it in a range where a 30/40% premium on top would start to look half reasonable
I’ve no idea if BHP really have desires on us - let’s get Jiangxi or whoever to move and test BHP …..then finally we can all move on.
No more smoke and mirrors from the old team - it’s bobs bat I want to see swinging
Orthern,
This post of yours was interesting to me - are you saying even if Nick didn’t win his vote he could still hold the position - as it’s only advisory that further action is taken ?
Would that be the same for Caldwell and Others ?
You may be right DBW,
But my guess is it won’t - it’ll just contain the results.
The votes given at the meeting today were not the final votes - final votes come from ‘Computershare’ and they won’t have got them all until a while after the AGM - maybe due to the lateness of full results caused the missed RNS - I’m not sure they can RNS after 6pm
So my theory is - the delayed RNS is not due to them scrambling in terms of what commentary to put in it - but merely as they didn’t have the final votes
Novice, your a good guy and I know for so long you (tongue in cheek) used to use the 55p by Friday quip.
Indeed it brought a smile to my face every now and then.
You’ve now done this flip and are stating 8p and doom and gloom - my thinking is this is also of course tongue in cheek and the flip has been brought about after us all being somewhat beat down with this share….
Could I kindly request you go easy with the downbeat stuff though - I’m struggling with this stock right now and would just love to see the board debating the issues facing us rather than the somewhat unnerving change in character
Only a request - appreciate it’s an open board
Dinner Money - I’m with you I think this vote is going to be close.
I don’t think there is anything too sinister in them not getting the results RNS out - as I’m thinking it was late over in Brisbane by the time they totted everything up. I think they wait for a full count back through an online system the name of which I can’t recall
So I have a question - do we think Blackrock would have submitted votes prior to the meeting ? I’m trying to work out if the numbers from todays win already included black rock or not.
My thinking is this ……if it’s only BHP & Newcrest we were waiting on - that’s 25% / 620k shares
If typically 70% vote and we were waiting ‘only’ on Newcrest / Blackrock then 45% had already voted (maybe)
45% = 1.125 b shares
Nick got 76% = 840k for and 24% against 280k against
If we then add in Newcrest / BHP - 620k against
Gives us 840k for and 900k against
Obviously the key questions are - which institutions hadn’t pre-voted …..maybe Newcrest / BHP had already submitted votes ……all my numbers are rough calcs
I’m not sure anybody here knows Paul - they are under the 3% threshold so don’t report - but it’s good to know they have pledged for the ‘For’ vote
Also potentially serves no real purpose for them to get the shareprice lower if they have eventual desires on making a bid - would of course allow them to load up more on open market at a cheaper price - but any real volume would soon switch the price back up.
Also if they subsequently bid at a lower price - let’s say a silly price of 20p it would be rejected anyway and would also be countered by BHP (maybe) - BHP / Newcrest may or may not have desires on SOLG but they are certainly not going to just sell their shares cheap even if they don’t counter bid
So in my mind Jiangxi will vote ‘For’ all resolutions
I guess they could Orthern - however if they did that they wouldn’t be issued any further shares by the board I would assume - also they would jeopardise the merger going through which would make it simpler if they do have desires on making a bid.
They would also open the door to BHP/Newcrest appointing a board member with a weakened SOLG board giving them more opportunity to gain a greater grip and eventuality dilute PI’s into oblivion (including Jiangxi)
One would also have thought that Jiangxi have been vetted prior to coming on the register as friendly and maybe votes were already pledged
Only my opinion though and very much like looking at contrarian angles
RCGL, I’d say with Norges voting ‘for’ on most of the resolutions is very positive indeed
Would take the ‘For votes’ to 33% and the against on 29% …..obviously I’m only counting from the significant investors list ….but Norges voting is significant - sort of cancels out Blackrock if they vote against
Then it comes down to all the smaller institutions and PI votes ……which I’d like to think will in the majority vote ‘For’ - would take quite a swing for the againsts to win
Obviously Clare / Van & Remuneration - are/is still at risk
I thought the pre-emptive rights to issue shares was an important one for the board to continue unhampered - so it’s good Norges voted ‘for’ on that
All in all positive I’d say
Any observations from others ?
Feel like Jon Snow on election days with the swing ‘ometer’
Quady, with the utmost respect - do we really have to go through the inquest every time you disagree or get into squabbles with other posters.
Asking for others to prove and detail who said what and what the meaning is etc etc …..it’s a little boring if I’m honest
Also I’ve noted it does crop up quite regularly in between any other more interesting posts - it’s sort of an unwanted distraction ……..which I’ve probably added too now……maybe played directly into the trap
If Jiangxi are gonna make a move in the new year it would make sense for them to be accumulating here - gives them additional cheap shares and extra votes
Although I guess one could state a similliar argument for Newcrest/BHP to be buying more to get additional votes
Blackrocks reduction was what % ?
There was that strange 40m (accross x two trades a few weeks back as well)
Quite frankly it’s too hard to judge and too many moving parts
Can’t see Bob and the board sitting back and not doing anything if we do lose though - it could well be that a loss could cause an immediate reaction from Jiangxi - they could bid on both SOLG & CGP at the same time / even offer to compensate CGP at a level to not have them disadvantaged by the merger not yet having been finalised. …..or am I wide of the mark here ?
The vote is very important - but should we lose is it really the end of the road and an instant 50% decimation of the share price ? Hope not
Don’t want to get slaughtered just before Chrimbo
Ho Ho Ho
Anybody had a tot up of the numbers >Fors = 30% (friendlies I can ascertain from the recently updated significant holders list)
Against = 32% (worst case of Norges / Blackrock go against)Typical turn out 70% (but we may get 80% as it’s important)
So of the 8% (remaining from the 62% I’ve totalled above) - if 25% (of the 8%) vote against and 75% vote
We get
36% for
34% against
If 33% of the 8% vote against and 67% vote for
We get 35.5% for
34.3 % against
But I think it’ll be more like 80% vote - 18% over the 62% we can have a good stab at
Let’s say 40% vote against and 60% for (I actually think we get a higher % voting for - but obviously that’s just a guess)
We’d be at 41% for
39.2% Against
Quite frankly if Norges/Blackrock go against us - it’ll be down to the unknowns and will most vote for the board
- I’d like to think yes - but welcome other opinions It’s gonna be tight indeed but think we will win it.
/>Please check my math as this is just back of a *** pack calcs
Also don’t know if any of the big holders have dark pools of holdings under different institute names they can call on for support
Lot of negativity here today but I’m staying positive - and even if we lose I’m not sure that Maxit and the team won’t have a plan B in place to move quickly on to counter any move the unfriendlies may make
Yea all good with me mate - just patiently waiting for the rebound which I believe to be coming soon
My old password doesn’t work in the site now so when I log off and back on I have to re-set the password every time ……ball ache - hence my minimal posting …..coupled with the fact the board does slip quite often into a complete custard pie battle ……logged on the other day and couple of chaps looking to arrange a fight !!
Now that wasn’t unheard of back in the day at the football …..in fact I have a few fond memories of an occasional tear up ………but I was 22 and not a middle aged chap on LSE swinging my beer belly around behind a keyboard !!
Anyway - this SOLG investment we’ve all put so much into emotionally will come good …….don’t think personally the £1 party will ever get to happen …..but a solid 60p-80p is certainly still in range …….maybe champagne and strippers will need to be replaced with a few light ales and an elderly strip-o-gram
Anyway - let’s hear about CGP getting those shares placed at a premium and lift on out of these teens for the final time
ATB and keep fighting the good fight
We will see Quady …..I’ve been wrong loads of times with this dissapointing stock - so who knows maybe your right, we sign a streaming deal push on to DFS and we are all still here in a decades time looking at out of date PowerPoint slides.
I hope for my sanity that’s not the case though
No one knows for sure so won’t argue with you
But I’ll tell you one thing I’m certain of …..WI is bullish
ATB
Still here for my sins ……although I’ve promised to exit when we go back past 40p for the umpteenth time
Solg mgt couldn’t really have done much worse - but I for one am hoping the CGP team bring new urgency - new motivation to get the job done
We all (pretty much all) know production is a complete fantasy ……I personally think moving to DFS and spending another £50m-£100m to get there would be a waste as it’ll only get ripped up by a major and binned
Nah - CGP have joined up for one reason ……Nick M called them up, told them he’d been too tight in the past and now wanted to give them 15:1 for their shares !! Seriously though CGP joined up as they can smell an exit and a big one at that ……they haven’t signed up to be diluted …..they’ve signed up for a deal
We’ve heard nothing from any major investor since the merger - neither endorsing it nor throwing mud at it ….I’m taking that as a sign that things are now moving along
I do hope we’ve all long gone from this board within mths …..one can hope
Sean ……glad your still here …..plenty hurting and under right now …..your churchillian comment made me smile earlier
ATB
selling may have been started with some form of animosity between companies - but its not due to that going forward.
Its my opinion only that they will continue to sell until they have the cash they need - I also thing they sell 2 or 3 days out of each week around £100-150k - it certainly slows our progress but wont last forevevr - when will they stop who knows !
Its also very much their perogative to sell the stock they own - like all of us make our own decisions
Anyway - upon release of PFS / ASX Listing / Increased resource size etc etc - its very likely that it wont be too long until our liquidity and desire for stock will go very much higher and will equalise and indeed surpass any of their sales
So my conclussion is - its a pin in the arse - but its temporary and not the end of the world - with anyone with a view a little further out thn daily fluctuoations
sorry for poor spelling / and grammar - bit of a rush today as I'm leaving the office
Hope this helped
Hi swest42.
If I may I'll have an attempt at answering your question. I'm a holder of ALL and building regularly - I can see the company doing very well indeed and we are at a very exciting juncture.
I'm also a significant (from a PI point of view) holder of SOLG stock - part of the DGR stable
Lastly I hardly every post on LSE anymore as its just not my chosen vehicle for discussion - but on this occasion I'll pop my head above the parapet.
DGR - are a holder of a number of companies stocks - ALL, SOLG, AUSTin is another I believe and have two or three others in their stable. When you mention are they with us ? I think this has to be taken into the following context - if you held 9% of any company one would assume you are 'with' that company.....however DGR tend to invest in early stage companies / discoveries and then sell on to a major if they can influence that process. However recently they have said quite publicly that they no longer will 'keep the lights on at DGR' by way of dilution......what this means is they have to sell stock from their stable
Its my opinion that they are choosing that company to sell down as being ALL - It's important to note thats not because there is a problem with ALL - merely that it chooses to cash in on recent rises
Furthermore its interesting to note that they are not 'dumping in baulk' - why ? well its my opinion that they want the cash for something else but they do not want to crash the share price - hence every couple of days or so we see these 'A' trades coming through - they are working their book - selling down but not wanting to crash the price.
This slows our own ascendency - and ensures that they still receive an ever increasing price for their stock.....if they came out and banged out 1m after 1m of share trades it would crash the price and quite possibly couldnt be forfilled by the liquidity avaialble.
DGR will sell stock as they may want it to keep the lights on - or rotate into SOLG or indeed to fund another company......its (in my opinion) not a reflection of what thety think about ALL more about the profit they have on paper and wanting to rotate those funds
This cant and wont last forever - they can only sell once - and it may well be that the hold 7% (I reckon its lower than the 9% now - TR1 at 5% would give us a better indication) - so they could indeed keep selling for a while - but nobody knows how much they want to sell or indeed how much they need to sell for other ventures/opportuities
There has been opinion that they may want to put these funds into SOLG or other companies in their stable whilst those respective prices are depressed - none here will ever know for sure the reasons - however it does not deflect from ALL value
I'm aware of the bad blood comments / opinions - could be truth in it / no smoke without fire - but believe me nobody cuts off their nose to spite their face when it comes to cold hard cash and business decisions - so their continued
Thankyou Monte kind of you to say that
And there in just a few short lines is the dark under belly of LSE - the planting of doubt / the mystique of the dual or multiple aliases / the distrust of anyone with a differing opinion
It’s a real shame - back in the real world I’ve spoken - yes actual conversations with many Solg investors - I’ve listened to varying opinions and all in a non confrontational ‘adult’ environment.
Bozi, Lotto, Unic to name just a few all genuinely nice gentleman - we don’t always agree but we debate without ramming of opinion down each other’s throats ….I’ve even seen Bozi being accused on here of being a multiple alias - what codswollop !
Sean Hunter gets berated on occasion - he’s brash yea but he makes good honest points - some I agree with and some I don’t - I don’t like his bashing of BnC but doesn’t mean I dismiss everything he says
I’ve seen it Time and time again on these boards - the cloak and dagger which creates this huge aura of distrust
It’s poisonous
Thank you for the guidance Quady I’d hope it was well intentioned on your part. I will however form my own opinions of people and very well know the pitfalls of investing in this area of the market.
I’ll leave you all now to return to your infighting / accusations / secret aliases and inabilities for tolerance
By the way - Solg is a first class investment it ‘WILL’ make great returns for many and I really do wish all of you the greatest of luck with it