Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Every point you make in your post is spot on the money SharketMare. Especially the nice bloke bit - thanks for that.
Eloro - feel free to use ‘Tool’ as and when - always makes me chuckle too
Blocked me now on X (Twitter) from following SOLG - the company I’ve backed for over 8 yrs
Absolute and utter tools
Feel free to message Scott or Bob if you think speaking the truth and calling the abysmal PR out for what it is , is reasonable and just - to be frank their comms are a pile of …..
Fun Facts about Cascabel ….posted by SOLG Twitter
I ask you ……”are you having fun yet” …..!!
My bet for what its worth is this still goes to the Chinese
But they are clearly not going to be rushed
My hunch is we are good for 30p - circa £1b - but I'm not sure anymore if thats my head. heart or prayers to the big fella
And that big fella isn't Matther
AGM will probably be carnage - but dont really care either way anymore
All just my opinions and views - plenty more mths of arguing on this board I'm sure so lots for the majority here to look forward too
Here's my view for what its worth...
in no particular order....just as it come into my head
Previous Solg Mgt Teams have been pretty poor
Scott is doing a good job
He had to cut costs fast and took a hatchet to the company
Him / Maxit / Warren & Probably NM DGR - wanted it sold and once that decision was made the CGP team moved in
Once they had decided they wanted it sold it makes sense in my mind that the quicker the better
However its been tougher than they thought
Suitors will have been well aware that they wanted it sold
Suitors are indeed applying diligence and maybe this process was longer than many had hoped for
Its a massive resource
Its gonna cost a huge amount to get it up and out of the ground
There is the dilema of striking the balance to a price a sale everyone agrees upon
I dare say certain parameters were requested before a bid was placed
Its ok saying it can be extracted cheaper - lets say £1b
So suitors say - well go and prove it then
Hence we start PFS x 3
Its ok to say Ecuador will issue all required permits
So suitors say well go and get them then
Its ok to say we can sort out the tailings / have a pipe to ship the stuff to the coast
So suitors say well go and prove it and sort it out then
We probably do have a Franco or a Silver Wheaton - waving a big chunk of money
But I dare say the terms would be onerous
Maybe we use that as a carrot to speed up a bid from a suitor
But suitors are wise and say - your never gonna sign that deal - so continue on points we have raised above
Company cant release much news to support the price as not much new has happened
We get frustrated and say that the board will be toast at the AGM
But they cant magic up news or make it up
So the wait goes on
None of the holders mentioned above really want a JV - and what would we bring to a massive suitor in terms of our end of a JV - not a lot
The option might be there to split out Cascabel sell it and hold on to some other license areas
There probably is a belief that there are other discoveries to be made
But after X amount of yrs who has the appetite for it
A lot of the board are in their 60's now......probably want their pay day
Berry exited they had too as they were distressed and this smashed our price in a tough market
Nothing to say we wouldnt be down here anyway - but maybe we wouldnt have been hit quite as hard
Very little in the way of buying as we are rather binary now
We either eventually get our sale (crossed fingers for an auction to drive up the price to an acceptable level)
Or we dont - and if we dont we need some cash
CGP shares not worth much down here - so are we back to streaming deals
Copper price looks a little perky but hasnt really kicked into gear
Gold looks good to move up if you believe the gold bugs
Copper defecit is looming - if what I have been reading for 10 yrs comes to fruition
So all in all - we are in a tough spot
Not quite terminal and certainly no fat lady singing just y
As the Italian has shared his notes from his call with Scott today I thought I’d also share my own. I wasn’t going to as I rarely post here anymore - but I thought it was interesting comparing my own notes to The Italians - and thought others might like to compare too
It must have been Scott’s ‘call’ day with investors
My notes below -
Some notes from a call I had with Scott Caldwell today
Sector pretty beaten up - most junior miners down 20-30% over six mths - but we are at 50% - obviously Scott not happy about the slide and sympathises with PI’s
The companies in the data room are all of size and scale to take on a 2.5b to 3b Capex project - none have walked away - the revised PFS with lower start up would open up and broaden the horizon for other companies with financial capabilities to also look
The review in the data rooms does take ages - so much to look at and review - with site visits also - their are companies looking at just Cascabel - Cascabel and all Tennaments - and just Tennaments
No intention to raise currently - enough funds through to June - nobody wants to sell the CGP shares down at this level - strategic review could provide a source of funding JV / Earn in Style for Tennaments - this would give us a source of funding - real possibility of these and more chance now election is behind us
Elections have slowed things up - not so much because of worry of who would win - but more the instability and how peaceful the whole process would be
Told him I didn’t like - open ended strategic review - he said all companies should be reviewing strategically all the time - the vast complexity of our tenement estate is a good thing but takes a long time to review. Site visits ongoing - some of the areas to visit take two days to get too
Met with Newmont at the Denver event - non commital over what they will do with their stake - not even looked at it yet
Nav at 8% around $3b = 60-70p - price to Nav always interesting and complex - with copper price / gold price / world inflation - would seem a huge leap to get back there when we are down at the lows - wouldn’t be drawn on what he would deem an acceptable offer - but all stakeholders want top dollar and current price doesn’t reflect in any way what we have
IPA / EC and amended protection act - all have a great shot of being signed under Lasso
New ministers will be appointed under new govt and Scott looks forward to working with minister for mining - exploration agreement legal docs and early works permit likely before end of the year
No payment due / royalty payment until construction of concentrator starts - 2-3yrs so no need for that chunk of cash
Trying to get news flow out before AGM - directors in a closed period now
Did buy his shares on open market through his broker - as quite frankly he views current price as hugely undervalued
Haha mine neither - my typing is slow after a night out last night near StPauls.
Other thing I meant to mention was he got in low - I think it was 3-4p or something like that (I don’t know the price exactly) so selling around 17p half his stock was the sensible thing to do I guess - and also why he says ‘SOLG has been good to me’ - he made a fair chunk of money out of it.
SharketMare - WI sold half of his stock years back and invested a big chunk in real estate - that then went on to almost double in price. When he says he wishes he sold the lot he’s referring to the journey from that point onwards (the well publicised) fall out with Nick and his his frustration with previous management over the years. He’s talking about the lost opportunity to exit in full yrs back rather than having his cash parked in SOLG . He’s not talking about the fact that we are now at 10p and as such doesn’t think we will achieve greater than 17p. He actually firmly believes Bob will get the job done. It’s the lost yrs he’s frustrated at and hence his comment ‘wish I’d sold the lot’ - just thought I’d clarify - I know I’m right on this
I guess that’s very much my line of thinking Fort - I’m honestly not as concerned as I once was about getting top dollar (I know that sounds a little foolish) but personally I’m sort of aligned to CGP - if indeed their thinking is let’s get an exit and let’s get it over. I also think your bang on the money that they would move on at 40p
Mather will no doubt want more - but he’s had his crack at it and his original dreams of £1+ or a company to rival BHP are consigned to the past now
The market is absolutely dire right now - however if we get an exit during this slump then there are plenty of buying opportunities around - for me risk can be spread and the SOLG journey can be put to rest.
As for my done and dusted by the end of this yr - it’s based on Elections being over by end of August , agreements in place with the govt and fingers crossed first bid received ….I am mindful that we still need a catalyst for the opening bid to be submitted and honestly I don’t know what that will be
Oh and just to add 35-50p is without competitive tension - (just my estimate) we get into a bid scenario and we can exit a lot higher
yea i’d agree pad. indeed the article does serve as a timely reminder that discussions are ongoing and although we are not privy to every piece of the jigsaw it does feel as though the jigsaw is nearing completion.
a good few yrs back now i always thought that solg would jump to 70-80p as a circa final price from around a 35-40p base - indeed it’s why i didn’t cash in on the good few times we managed to get into that range.
my thinking is now 35-50p as it would seem the chinese want a bargain (obviously) and the majority of holders want an exit - and time and money constraints will begin to weigh on proceedings
i do think we will be all done and dusted here by xmas - and for the first time in a while i’m going to start adding some chunks of shares here with some surplus cash and a few rotated shares
recession is heading to the u.k. and aim is on its **** (i know we are not aim) there are not many plays out there which offer the upside i believe we can achieve here in the near term (6mths)
i haven’t been in this share for the yrs that i have to reach this later stage to not have a full and bristling holding
good luck all and have nice weekends
Good morning chaps,
I wasnt able to listen in yesterday as I was at my nephews wedding on Weds deepest Essex and traveling home yesterday- Leez Priory - lovely venue
From what I have read so far nothing earth shattering on the presentation (I will listen back when i get a chance) however I sort of expected that.
Only my view but I think it feels and seems like very little happeneing as the goal now is to get the company sold - in what guise that takes I have no idea and as for timescale also no idea - I'd like to think that by the end of the year we will have the corporate transaction many are waiting for - but that would be a pure guess on my part.
I'm with Bozi - you can remain invested and indeed buy more if you feel the sale is coming although at the same time feel dissapointed that maybe the journey (and its been yrs and yrs for many of us) maybe wont yield the return a good few of us would have liked - so a twinge of dissapointment would be natural
That said I'm in the camp of 40-50p as a final outcome and higher if we do indeed ever reach a competitive scenario - could happen but who knows.
Anyway its been good to read up on comments over the last few days.
Just one last thing from me on a couple of points - it was Scotts idea to reach out and get closer with PI's and I think it was already in the plan to do so prior to my call- I merely agreed and said that I thought it would be a good idea - ie it certainly wasnt any pressure that I put on - I'm a mere investor ! However just maybe if you read between the lines its a positive that they did this with no new news per say as typically companies provide a session like this as they have something to announce - they didnt and offered themselves up to be shot down which I think is a positive. My own opinion is they are positioned for a sale and as such are watching the pennies and not driving forward with much else other than things that can help and make this happen.
All the best and good luck - hopefully we are on the home straight and hopefully before my mortgage rate jumps in 2024 !
Also - quick thumbs up to Sean
An old pal of mine - straight talking - says it how it is and an all round good guy - rubs a few up the wrong way but good on ya I say
I’m still hopeful we get a good return here - but what a ride !
Drinks one day - win or lose
I dont need attention Needalife - I'd be happy for you to reach out directly to me and can find a way to provide you with my email or telephone number (Im active on Twitter and also Telegram)- I'd be happy to talk you through my call with Scott. Or indeed if you want to go directly and ask for confirmation that the call/zoom took place feel free to email Christina - who set the call up and also joined the zoom - I'm sure she'd have no problem confirming that the event took place.
Not looking for an argument with you - just looking for a way for you to validate your own opinion that my call was somehow constructed in my mind......for what benefit I have no idea.
If you choose not to do any of the above - Ill assume your angle here is merely to disrupt - its a genuine olive branch
Thanks for your comments guys was no problem at all.
Needalife - shame you dont believe me - for your own sake not mine - because if you dont believe then you have to disregard all of my notes which I personally think would be a shame - but hey each to their own
However you did jog my memory when you said about a CEO shuffling his diary to accomodate my own.
Well indeed he did on two occassions - infact Christina Robinson was very undertsanding in changing the booking with one of those bookings being changed by me at late notice (on my part due to my new job commitments)
Anyway the jog of them memory was that Scott had said he is keen to engage with UK retail and had indeed had 4 to 5 calls in the last week or so with individual investors from the UK
He also mentioned his regular calls with our new Chinese Investors - he said these can take a while with a 30 min call actually taking up to 2 hrs due to the translation required.
I think Add - and this is personal view/opinion only
The message is - it would be highly unlikley we will ever be the miners of cascabel - However their are certain engineering / studies that are being progressed........please remember these are my notes in my pad - potentially engineering was the wrong word - in my pad it said engineering/studies/ground works
What i would encourage is that people come together to request maybe a webinar so everyone can have air time and ask questions
Or maybe a consolidated list of questions is sent over to Scott and Christina
Not an easy task - with this LSE board id imagine
Hi Quady - sorry mate we didnt discuss specific Bramaderos or Limon
He did say the targets that are from CGP which have moved to high priority are in proximity to Cascabel in the North though - if that helps you
One last thing and this exchange between was light hearted and jovial
I was saying all we really want is honesty and openness as investors - we dont want to be led or ramped or feel we have been misguided
Its on this basis that we can all take our own decisions - which are Buy - Sell - or Hold
Scott said he'd be a buyer at this point in time.......two things holding him back - firstly closed period until the end of June secondly his wife........I guess a lot of us face the second challenge
I said openly to him - Scott - take this the right way - with 19m+ shares you have 'enough' - he said thats exactly what my wife has been saying
It was a jovial light hearted exchange - dont go basing any investment decisions on it - but I thought it was a light hearted momnent to share
Your very welcome
Part of my post cut off - it was low cost option for tailings facility has been progressed considerably - again not the sexy stuff that jumps the SP but in the overall plan a very inportant part of progress
Add - I did say that I thought it was detailed as ending in June within the prosepctus - he said this has not been said - its very much open ended but he did say this could change in the future
I positioned I wasnt happy with the article which detailed Bob Sanghas fast and smart bat - I thought it was unprofessional
Scott - Bob is a shareholder and is entitled to say what he wants - like all of us
Re-iteration that we are Moine finders and not Mine builders
Ecuador want this mine built
News will be given when things are agreed or concluded - we will be moving away from promises and timelines that dont come to fruition
Cascabel is a huge asset - Ecuador knows it - they look at jobs and development and revenues for yrs to come - In all likelyhood we wont be mining it ourselves
Scott welcomes discussion with Newmont and will engage with them when the time is right - Cascabel is far better than anything that Nwmont currently have in their stable - and they are gold copper focused - C/A NDA will hopefully be signed in the future with Newmont
It is hoped that Lasso will sign the IPA (investmnet protection agreement - shortly) Both IPA and Exploration Licenses are still moving forward and very much expected to be approved
Scott spent time discussing the geology and sampling and ongoing works - which was interesting but went a little over me (sorry guys)
It was mentioned again that drilling has finished at Cascabel - although engineering studies continue - it was siad that Cascabel is absolutley huge - it could indeed get even bigger - but making a huge discovery even bigger might not really shift the dial
Scott will engage with investors - he's open and honest
My own very brief summary
Do I believe SOLG will be sold tomorrow - probably not
Do I beleive ongoing discussions are happening with interested parties (yes I do)
Do I think the political situation has slowed things a bit (yes I do)
Do I think political change is a show stopper (no i dont)
The SR is open ended - confirmed - with the caveat that could change in the future
Did I feel more assured about whats happening (yes I do)
Thats it guys and gals.......take it as it is......I hope it helps somewhat