The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Anyone know more accurately when the PFS is due - from what I can see the only indication is ‘early’ H2 - which in my book is anytime ‘now’. This is going to correct soon back into 4p territory and PFS being strong could see us a fair bit higher. DYR on this one as no stock is without risk but the RvR here is very appetising
Hi FR101, Im very well thank you for asking and hope that you and yours are too. Very envious of you being in Nam, hot and sticky it may be, but what an adventure hey !
Your comments to cookie certainly ring true with me. I initially invested early doors and got lucky, then bolstered by my early success I added more, and then some more and as my confidence grew as did my investment sizes. Yep absolutely the fear of missing out has been the cause of my own personal decisions along the way. I anchored to an exit point I created within my mind (calculated as much as was possible from my research) and I wasn't going to let anyone shake me from my belief.
Now in hindsight you are absolutely correct, its very very rare for any investment to move directly to that exit point in a linear fashion (shame but true), I now with hindsight believe maybe a trading pot of a percentage of ones holding would be a way to play the game, maybe 25%-50% (just playing with the numbers) would be a reasonable amount to use for trading, the baulk of the investment remains in place to overcome the fear aspect of the SP ballooning on the golden RNS we all crave, whilst monies are made from the trading pot en-route - to either utilise and enjoy or indeed add to the holding size.
I've traded a few along the route and made a modest sum, should have and could have done more - which takes me back to the wonderful power of hindsight. still we live and learn, develop and adapt and each step gains us all valuable insight and experience.
I'll let you know how my future 'side' trades go - good or bad - I'm not one to hide the bad and over egg the good
Did you ever work in the City FR, my Market Maker experience came from some good friends whom worked at WINS - some still do and some have no moved on
Good luck all - and catch up soon
I’ve banged on about it before on this site - the MM’s just want volume up or down they don’t care - they are not the investing guru wizards some on these boards proclaim and more often than not know very little more (if anything more) than the likes of us PI’s (and deffo less than those amongst us who are well researched)
Charting is not vodoo - I’m a converted believer - some choose to believe some choose not to and some just can’t be arsed to read up in it
Yes I know news can change/drop at any time which kills the charts - but as FR rightly says - the traders are playing the odds - sometimes news will catch them out but mostly the odds will prevail - think of a poor bookie
Anyhow the good news here in my very humble opinion is the fundamentals here are intact - infact almost certainly improved since the court case - the journey here is going to take some time if maximum value is to be achieved (baring a news event which supersedes matters) for now I’m waiting - 8 mths without an Alpala still result is of course a long painful period - but my thinking is there must be reason for the news void - it’s not withheld to just annoy us PI’s or save a few quid on an RNS fee
We can all think and debate the reasons - might never know for sure as to why
I believe this will achieve £1+ I’ve said it for a few years - but I doubt it will be this yr nor next - but it will happen in a quicker timeframe than my mthly mortgage payments will clear that debt - Solg will do that for me
32-33p next up - and after that .....we’ll we need to find a friendly trader who will share his/her view at that point
DG
Never in doubt was it !! - he says taking another sip of brandy which has been calming me back down...
Fair play to those that held through it all and even more congrats to those who took advantage of buying more.
Govt need to come out and close down loop holes to prevent this happening again - and we shoud always keep an eye on these type of developments - soverign risk still being the biggest risk we face - i for one will readily admit I was sleeping at the wheel when this court case came about.
Loads of good people here - and research is first class - been a bit of a stresful few weeks - but onwards and upwards now
GLA
DBW - I'm with you mate, I think balance is important but there is far too much scare tactics going on and underhand play. Real shame as its a worrying juncture we find ourselves at. That said I'm confident of a positive outcome and my personal opinion is we will sail back into the mid 30'ps on a positive outcome. Maybe even higher as we may have been held back somewhat as this cloud was hanging over us for some months - (I didn't spot it though !)
I think Zoros was open with his shorting play - its the worrying people out of positions that annoys me. Balance yes - scare mongering no
Anyway the 29,008 buy earlier today was mine
Could get quite volatile next day or two - strap in and good luck all
Sent a response a few mins back DBW - but think I must have been logged out !
when are you closing your short Zoros - I'm in the market for some shares :o)
Cheers KB
Not enough CEO's out there gifting to charity in my opinion. Shows great character and a tendency to want to share the wealth and good fortune.....DG
That's right Stumpy and actually think the volume he sold this year is circa half what he sold last year - would need to check back and cant be arsed on a Friday when there are better things to be doing. - See Ya All DG
Touax2 - you've brightened up the start to my weekend.....I just have no words......good luck with your investing mate
Yep Stumpy 6th Largest Copper Mine - Third largest Gold Mine and Largest Silver Mine (Underground) in the world !.....all combined into one great package that is 'Cascabel'....mind boggles...…(Largest Silver mine and we have hardly even discussed this on here !)
Will this really be prevented by a local referendum... Just cant see it myself.....keep an eye our for a change in Ecuadorian law.
Nice weekend all.....don't stress the court-case.....nothing we can do about it...….big business and pound notes always wins through in the end
Agreed FTJNY - and my post wasn't to add to any negativity. Just to flag a debatable topic, as if these things are ignored it can plant further seeds of doubt into PI's minds. 'Elephant in the room scenario'
I believe your take on it is entirely correct and does indeed mirror my own....its a shot over to the Ecuadorian Govt by NM, Govt are as keen as us for additional progress, (they just need to get their house in order) I also believe that the Govt will close this gap in the law to prevent further referendums which can occur after licenses and drilling and monies have been issued/started & invested.
The Govt have certainly upped their rhetoric in recent weeks showing their pro-mining support (Twitter is awash with all manner of senior Govt officials quotes and endorsements to mining). What we have here is a situation that no doubt will be resolved - even if the CC moves to the next stage - (10% of voting community needing to vote against) it is not the end of the road...far far from it. Ecuador can not shoot the golden goose, they cant afford to and big business and billions of dollars of taxes into their coffers will not be allowed to drift away.
For me this is a buying opportunity - the only question is how low and how long will this go on - Id hazard a guess not much lower and to be resolved quickly.....but that's just my take on it - each to their own.
Bit like Smicksters filter list (each to their own)….but from my view point there a quite a few names on that list who are very much worth listening to....I learnt a lot from them....Strider4, Montecristo, Earthling, SeanHunter, FTJNY (of course), Bozi, FilthyRich101...………..I respect all of these guys. But its Smicksters list so that's fair enough we all choose who we engage with / don't engage with or filter. Only ever filtered 98D7 personally, but that's just me
Roll on the 24th for the next set of fireworks :o)
XRAYTom - you raise a very valid point. Here is my take / summary.
Jason Ward recently the New York 121 mining conference went on film to state - licenses for regional drilling are at stage 6 of 6 and would be provided soon - furthermore drilling would commence at LaHueca in June followed by Povenoir (apologies for my spelling those that know me know I cant spell for toffee). Now at the time of this filming Jason would have been very very aware of the CC - and yet he was still extremely bullish in his outlook.
Then a few days later we get the regional RNS (as we all know Regional RNS's - have in recent time taken our SP down on day of release / maybe a reflection of our current SP being heavily biased to Cascabel - who knows that's conjecture) - but NM then takes the opportunity to contradict what Jason had said. NM states that Regional drilling will commence early next year - once the Ecuadorian Govt define a clear path for the approval of regional licenses (or words to that effect).
So my question is what's changed ? Anna has been contacted to confirm NM's statement to be correct - and not that maybe he was talking about some of the other regional licenses - this is unknown. Now NM would have known that the RNS was likely to take our price down on regional news alone (only my opinion) - so why add the piece about regional drilling to start early next year - why not wait until the outcome of the CC - if positive there would be no need for Govt to not provide regional licenses soon - and if negative outcome NM could have then made the statement that regionals would start next year and site the reason being the CC has delayed matters...….
So all very strange - why would NM want the price down now or indeed does he want it down (temporarily) - something to do with CGP takeover (Im just throwing ideas out their - I don't have the answers).
Im as bullish as ive ever been on Solg - but there are things to discuss and debate - over and above whos filtering who.....;o)
DG
Mog - Blackrock are indeed loading and have been for the last few weeks. I know this because I have eyes on a Bloomberg terminal. Furthermore the omission of Blackrock from the list of key investors on the most recent presentation was an oversight from Solg - I know this as it was confirmed by Anna - via email communication.
However Blackrock could be buying for one of their funds and maybe need to balance shareholding %'s as the Solg price has dropped / Or indeed they may be buying as they think its a good point in time to top up their holding - that element is purely guess work depending on our own individual view points
DG
I'm holding mine - circa 400k+ of these little beauties. Although of course its been a bit painful of late. I did successfully execute a couple of trades least week and made a few hundred quid - paid for a new dress for my MRS and a few beers for me so that was nice ! - with additional monies outside my core holding.
Successful court case will obviously see a jump in the SP and I'm not confident enough that i'd be able to get back in quick enough - I'm not even 100% confident of the CC but that said I am confident that Ecuador is not going to shoot the golden egg...so one way or another eventually the pro-mining stance will win through, which will be a welcome blessing for me and all LTH's
Those that choose to trade some or de-risk I totally understand - for me I had a £1+ target in mind and by my ongoing calculations I still have that target which I believe to be achievable.
Next week or two will test the resolve of those who have chosen to hold - Im thinking that news may come early but lean towards them taking the full allocated time - to be seen to have considered very carefully
Jason was very confident of new pins going into the ground in June - so drills must be primed and ready to go on the drop of our new licenses - now wouldn't that put the cat amongst the pigeons to have that news drop before the CC is even resolved - wishful thinking maybe
I usually sign off with GLA - but for now I'll say enjoy the journey, switch off if it all gets too much, its not heads in the sand if your are confident of your own due-dil - its just patience with a dose of big cahoonas
No worries Rich :-)
RichyRich - was your response at me ?
I for one am not 'happy' about the 6% drop on the day today - nor the drop over the last 72hrs - of course I'm not its cost me on paper 10's of thousands - and I'm not a multi millionaire jet setter (if only). However I am a realist, and I'm convinced with the conviction I have in my investment, I do not believe however that we will get a linear line upwards all the way to £1 and beyond - (I so very much wish it was as easy as that) - Its been a god awful few days and I'm guessing we have lost a good few genuine and honest PI's along the way....this game of investing we have all chosen is not easy - its damn hard, there are instituations, market makers, mining giants that all want to take our money from our hands and transfer it into their own - there timescales differ from ours - they don't have the mortgage to pay and kids to feed and bills to pay - there constitution is stronger and their financial resources are deeper and in the main they are better at this stuff than us.
So we either suck it up and hope our judegment and research will pay us in the long term or we bail out and look for another home for our money.
But none of it is funny...…
And yep I shit my pants like everyone else this morning !
Don't let the bast**** grind you down....I believe the saying goes.
Its painful currently but we've seen this before. We could see some big buys come in again during the end of day auction period - just have to wait and see.
NM recently in financing talks I believe - so we could get some news on that soon, following that I'd bet positive momentum will return.
Strange how we always seem to get a lot of negative newbies around the time of volatility such a strange coincidence - try not to be drawn into too much debate with them, Ive personaly found over the years it serves no purpose.
My hunch is we are in a period of which could be light on news - so a perfect time for Mr Market to walk us down a bit - remove shares from the nervous and pass them to the insto's is my bet - but wtfdik. We could drop further but for me as it has always been its all about the end game.
GLA - blue finish today ;o)
DG
Sad to hear that Addicknt - I'll raise a glass to you over the weekend - bottoms up !
Good question TheRouge,
FWIW in my opinion 'IF' its bought out.... and by it's I'm only talking Cascabel not Solg - then there are a few majors out there who could indeed buy it and could indeed afford to pay £2b (and more if they wanted too) - however it would be more likely that a cash and share offer would be made.
I'm quite sure anyone putting their cock on the block to sign that cheque though would need a full BFS first
Furthermore I have a feeling this is already potentially too 'big' for any single major to purchase it - and indeed they may have already have missed the boat on that window of opportunity - maybe a consortium (if they were willing to play ball with each other (which they probably wont)) - Maybe cash offer with shares thrown in with a future interest left in the pot for shareholders.
When the rewards are in the multi billions and the resource is multi-generational - funds to purchase can be found
BHP / RIO / GINA's mob / Chinese conglomerate - to name a few who could if they so desired stump up £2b