RE: New to the board - Email from SOLG4 Feb 2020 20:23
Cheers Quady.
Here are some of my thoughts fwiw
Enjoyed reading Byron Bays posts earlier - made sense to me
As far as im concerned im not now thinking of MRE3 as being delayed - I believe it either cant be released or its not in Solg's interest to release it right now
Cant be released as in we are in a news lockdown period is a theory, as is the theory that by releasing it may help CGP in someway, maybe they could raise funds and/or it assists their shareprice. Personally I dont really buy the second theory as Im quite sure CGP will pretty much know the content of that MRE3 - this is not school boy playground hide and seek - this is multi million pound business.
As such I believe we are in a lockdown.
Now that lockdown could be due to us bidding on the 15% of ENSA from CGP or indeed it could be because somebody has approached Solg about buying ENSA or the whole shooting match.
I dont think it would be the whole thing - how could we ever sell the whole thing - whoever buys in needs Solgs relationships in Ecuador, needs our social responsibility etc
Could be that we are indeed bidding for CGP 15% - infact we have it in the DGR report that its our intention to do so - but why now..why not wait it out for BFS when CGP would owe us the big money, surely at that stage or just prior to it would be a better time to approach the table.
So that leads me back to thinking maybe its a 3rd party who has approached solg with a view to buying ENSA. Warren Irwin tweeted a few mths back that he thought it wouldnt end up with Newcrest or BHP - then he went silent. If a third party wanted to buy ENSA they wouldnt want 15% still to be owned by CGP - they could either push Solg to bid for CGP's 15% or indeed negotiate with them directly. If we have been approached then Nick would no doubt have informed BHP and Newcrest of the approach - maybe this would release BHP from the standstill - they would then need time to ready a counter bid (if they were so inclinned) and would also want the CGP 15% sorted out. So we could have multiple interested parties within a sphere of negotations, in my mind that could take months. Maybe nobody has officialy placed a confirmed bid on the table and as such the market doesnt need to be informed of a tabled bid (I think), but all parties might well agree that a non news period is best and possibly even have requested it from Nick before approaching the table.
Solg IR, could only then use words like 'imminently' and 'soon' and couldnt provide an explanation for delayed MRE3
Maybe a third party wanted to approach the Solg now prior to any conditional finance package being arranged, which could increase our SP. I think personally Nick has been honest, he will take this to production if thats the option for him, but has always said he'd consider offers if they were right for the company and shareholders.
Maybe the current SP decline is due to Copper wobble, brought about by the worries over Corona Virus - a black swan that